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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis - 2017 Wk1: Jets v. Bills

September 17, 2017 12:53 AM
September 17, 2017 12:55 AM

The Bills led this one 7-6 at the half. The Jets failed on a two-point conversion with two minutes left in the 3rd-quarter or this game would have been 14-14 going into the 4th-quarter.  Eventually, the Bills pulled away and sat on a 21-12 lead for the 21-12 win.

This game was very dull on the live watch. It was dull on the re-watch. However, after the re-watch I thought…this felt more like a 31-7 Bills win than a touch and go 21-12 win. The Bills, much like the Rams, hired a real (new) head coach…and the ship has been tightened. The culture has been 'changed'…as they like to say.

The Bills were disciplined; sharp. Motivated. The Jets looked…well, not good. It won’t be long before Matt Forte is traded and the Christian Hackenberg trial balloon is floated.

I would not be shocked if the Bills went to Carolina Week 2 and straight up knocked them off. Hard to get too excited by the Bills because the Jets are not much of a litmus test.


Fantasy player notes…

 -- Matt Forte (6-16-0, 2-20-0/5) is playing with very little effort. Between eroding skills, knowing it is his last season, and playing for a dead team…he's smart to protect himself. No more laying out for catches or trying to get an extra yard into congestion.

Forte's fade has been Bilal Powell's (7-22-0, 5-17-0/6) gain. Powell has everything to play for – a contract year. Neither of these guys are that good but Powell works harder and will probably be the main man in a matter of weeks.

FYI, Powell had a catch and dive at the end-zone but fell just short of the score. Josh McCown then ran for a 4th & goal from the 1-yard line for the score.


 -- Who's the LeSean McCoy (22-110-0, 5-49-0/6) handcuff? Looks like Mike Tolbert (12-42-1, 1-12-0/1). I don’t think they'd work Tolbert like McCoy but right now…it’s Tolbert as part of a nice duo.


 -- Watching Jordan Matthews (2-61-0/3) and Zay Jones (1-21-0/4) work is beautiful…they are like clones of each other. Professional receivers. Sadly, they play in this offense…an all-run attack as long as the team has the lead/is even. They'll only be forced to throw more if down by two scores…thus the total 7 targets between their two top WRs.

The biggest pass play the Bills have is a screen pass to McCoy.


 -- I thought Josh McCown (26-39 for 187 yards, 0 TD/2 INT) looked sharp and strong-armed in the preseason. He looked more frail and throwing off his back foot in this game.

I'm ready to give up on everything Jets passing game related. There was no special connection between McCown and Robby Anderson (4-22-0/8) and Jermaine Kearse (7-59-0/9) is reliable and slow. I didn’t like anything I saw with this group.

Will Tye (3-34-0/3) was like the only option that seemed to have a spark.

Maybe, when Austin Seferian-Jenkins returns he will be a best friend for McCown.


 -- It really was a nice performance by the Bills defense. Three things to point out with them…

LB Ramon Humber (12 tackles) had quite a game. He played all but one snap and was in on a ton of tackles.

Lorenzo Alexander (5 tackles, 1 TFL) continued his IDP ways into 2017…1 TFL, 2 QB hits.

Tre'Davious White (4 tackles, 2 PDs) played well in his rookie debut. He had a perfect coverage tracking a pass for an INT, but he dropped the pick.

Let's see what happens against Carolina Week 2, but Buffalo has a very smart defense. Not overly talented, but nice execution Week 1…versus a Jets team easy to execute against.


 -- Darron Lee (10 tackles, 1 sack, 1 PD) is going to make a run at 100+ tackles this season. 7.4 tackles per game his last 7 games going back to last season plus Week 1 here.


 -- 5th year player out of Columbia, a special teamer for years, DE/LB Josh Martin (5 tackles, 3.5 TFLs) had a hell of a game. He looked pretty good rushing the backfield off the D-Line. He put up those numbers playing just 49% of the defensive snaps. Something to note for deep roster IDPs.

Snap Counts of Interest...

67 = Jordan Matthews (87% of the offensive snaps)

66 = Zay Jones

25 = Lorenzo Alexander (43%)

15 = Adolphus Washington

58 = Tre'Davious White

57 = Robby Anderson

55 = Jermaine Kearse

38 = ArDarius Stewart

12 = Chad Stewart

35 = Matt Forte

30 = Bilal Powell


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>