Brought to you by - Total Football Advisors, LLC
It’s hard to take a bunch from this game because it was played in a drizzle and Tampa Bay was without Mike Evans. It was 3-3 at halftime. 15-3 Tampa with less than 4 minutes remaining. The Jets almost scored on a 4th-down deep ball to Robby Anderson with 2:32 left, then held Tampa, and came back and did hit Anderson for a score under a minute to close the gap to where the score ended 15-10 Tampa Bay. For 56 minutes, Tampa Bay was the better team and then held off the Jets waking up the last 4 minutes.
Huge loss for the Jets. Had they won and moved to 5-5…they would have really been sitting pretty for that final AFC wild card, which will be reserved for a bad 8-8 team...whatever that team might be – Bills, Jets, Ravens, Raiders, Dolphins, etc. The Jets are still alive but have CAR-KC-NO-NE among their final 6 games, so they’re not likely to get to 8 wins now that they lost here. The Computer projects 6-10, 7-9 best case scenario…no real logical path to 8-8.
The Bucs are already done. You need 10 wins to get into the NFC playoff picture and Tampa Bay would have to win out. I would note that they are playing better football now. The Bucs are 3-3 with Brent Grimes in the lineup. They’ve been banged up all year but starting to get healthy. Their defense looked the best it has all year in this game…so, let's begin the player notes talking defense (because it’s the Bucs-Jets…what is there to talk about?).
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Tampa Bay Defense registered 14 QB hits on Josh McCown, and a season-high 6 sacks…they almost didn’t have 6 sacks for the entire season coming in. They held the Jets to 10 points, 7 of them late in prevent. Two weeks prior they held Carolina to 17 points, in a loss. That TNF game with new England a few week ago – held the Pats to 19. It’s been a Jekyll and Hyde defense that’s been shorthanded a bunch with injuries…missing all their linebackers for 3-4 games early on.
At Miami this week, may not be the worst DST play in the world for the desperate. Additionally, ‘it’s a great matchup’ because your player is facing ‘Tampa’ may be a bit too strong a thought right now.
The Jets Defense isn’t ‘the worst’ either. 19.5 PPG allowed their last 8 games…with a 4-4 record. Hung tough with New England. Had Atlanta down to the end then lost late. Crushed Buffalo allowing a ton of garbage time to Tyrod. Handled Tampa’s offense here for the most part.
I don’t know if you’re using the Jets DST for fantasy ever, maybe for the desperate, because of a tougher schedule…but don’t think instant ‘easy matchup’ just because ‘Jets’.
Both Tampa (with Fitzpatrick) and the Jets/McCown play controlled, safe offenses and have decent defenses.
-- Robby Anderson (4-85-1/7) has broken away as the preferred McCown option. He caught a 30+ yard TD with 0:32 seconds left. The drive before, on the same exact play, he caught a 25+ yarder but only had a foot in bounds back of the end zone.
Robby A. is a strong WR2 with WR1 upside each week right now. Week 14 vs. Denver may not be a treat…
-- I have no idea what the Jets are doing with their backfield. Matt Forte was taking control, but he got hurt. When you think Bilal Powell (10-30-0) for big things, he does nothing. Then you shy away and he’s Gale Sayers out of nowhere.
Elijah McGuire (8-22-0, 4-36-0/7) returned from the dead and was the top back for some reason in this game
Going forward, I like Forte as an RB2 when healthy and no one else matters. If Forte’s out, I’m just going to avoid the situation if I can.
-- Tampa rookie WR Chris Godwin (5-68-0/10) played a really nice game in his debut as a starter. He’d be a better JuJu Smith-Schuster if he played on a team anyone cared about and he worked with a better offense/started. Godwin is a better talent than JSS, but we’ll never know it for 2-3 seasons until he starts...and maybe a change at QB. Godwin’s style + Winston = I don’t see the great cohesion. Godwin is a precise WR and can work inside traffic. Winston is a nightmare throwing inside…he likes bombs to Mike Evans and scramble throws to Cameron Brate.
-- Speaking of Cam Brate (1-10-0/3)…he’s died with Ryan Fitzpatrick. TE1…gone. TE2 with TE1 hopes, fleeting, maybe until Winston returns.
One catch in each of the last two games with Fitzpatrick.
-- Doug Martin (20-51-0, 0-0-0/2) looks fine to me. 20 carries in a game is what you want, what I hoped. He’s just not putting any numbers up with it. I still think he’s an RB2-2.5 hopeful because he takes the main workload. Tampa is starting to get its footing and might be in for a couple of good games vs. MIA-ATL-GB-DET-ATL.
Snap Counts of Interest…
50 = OJ Howard
33 = Brate
69 = Godwin
54 = D Jax
46 = Humphries
36 = McGuire
33 = Powell