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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk10: Saints v. Bills

Date:
November 16, 2017 4:10 PM
November 16, 2017 4:00 PM

The cute Buffalo story has curled up and died. The Bills are not losing tough games to tough opponents, they are getting humiliated no matter the opponent. The Jets looked the best they’ve looked in years against the Bills two weeks ago. The Saints won this one 47-10, and the Bills are lucky it wasn’t 60+ to 10.

At one point in this game, the Saints ran the ball 23 times in a row…and kept moving the ball. The Buffalo crowd mocking their team when they did halt a running play for short yardage. That’s pretty sad.

Oddly, Buffalo is 5-4 and holds the lead for the final wild-card in the AFC. Everyone else under them has a losing record. The AFC is weak this season. The Bills have two games with the Patriots and one at KC still to come. That almost ensures 7 losses. I don’t believe the Bills can win the rest of their other games, so Buffalo is looking at 8-8 best case scenario…and that still might slip them into the playoffs.

The switch to Nathan Peterman is likely going to take them from 8-8 hopes to under .500. We’ll discuss that in a moment.

The Saints are on a tear – 7 wins in a row. They are good but they’re not ‘that good’. They had a pretty soft schedule for this win streak. They have WAS-LAR-CAR the next 3 games. If they go 2-1 or better in that stretch, then I’ll believe. I wouldn’t be shocked if they go 0-3. The Computer says 10-6/11-5 for the Saints in the end…and the NFC South division title or a wild-card, worst case.

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

So, Tyrod Taylor got pulled in the blowout and Nathan Peterman (7-10 for 79 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) was inserted for the 4th-quarter work. It wasn’t just a thing they did because of the blowout…because this week they announced Nathan Peterman would be starting.

The Bills basically threw their playoff chances in the trash...maybe…I mean… What? Are the Dolphins or Ravens going to make a run at this? I guess the Bills have a chance.

Peterman is the ULTIMATE dream for the Mike Mayock’s and David Jeremiah’s of the world on the NFL Network. They smell a Kirk Cousins 2.0 here. A coach said it to one of them and now it’s just a ‘catchphrase’ on Peterman. And because they beat that drum all draft season…it’s all anyone will say about him for analysis now.

Two things about the ‘Kirk Cousins’ story…

1) The Kirk Cousins story started out terribly. He struggled for two seasons of regular play and was almost benched for Colt McCoy. This story was close to not happening.

2) Who happened to be the offensive coordinator that turned things around with Cousins? Sean McVay. Sean McDermott and his gaggle of ancient run game assistant coaches aren’t Sean McVay.

This is the downfall of Sean McDermott…suckered into the QB-you-want-your-daughter-to-date option. I’m sure Peterman is well-spoken, well-groomed, first-in-last-out, a film room rat…whatever other clichés you can put on him that have labeled many a failed QB in the NFL. They love him because he runs the plays as called. He throws to spots. He’s a robot. He’s not a next-level star…and if he is someday, he won’t be right now.

Peterman came into this game and looked like C.J. Beathard…minus running ability. Quick drop, and blind throw to spots pre-choreographed. Sometimes the spot is open. Sometimes the defender is just waiting for your telegraphed throw.

They’ll try to keep it simple for Peterman, but teams are going to stack 8-10 in the box on McCoy and make him prove himself. It doesn’t look good for the Bills right now.

 

 -- Nathan Peterman’s issues trickle down on to the main Bills fantasy weapons…

LeSean McCoy (8-49-0, 3-11-0/5) might run the ball 100 times in a game if the Bills can get a lead. He may get stuffed a lot but he’s going to get a ton of touches…unless the Bills start getting blown out (like they have the past two weeks). McCoy should be fine/normal-ish. He may get into it with McDermott soon…so watch out for that. McDermott doesn’t play.

Kelvin Benjamin (3-92-0/6) will likely be the top target but Benjamin isn’t a meticulous receiver and Peterman is a spot thrower. They may hook up a few times but I don’t love this until garbage time.

Charles Clay (2-13-0/3) is dead. Rookie QB that isn’t a pure, quality passer. Peterman will be hesitant to throw to a TE in traffic…and hard-pressed to be accurate to them. Clay’s special connection was with Tyrod.

Steven Hauschka goes from nice sleeper kicker on a team playing good D and fine settling for FGs…to a team likely to get blown out in games and be hard pressed to move the ball otherwise.

 

 -- Is the Saints DST for real?

I think there is a lot of ‘inflation’ here. A bubble about to burst, somewhat.

The Saints DST comes down to their schedule…and they’ve taken advantage of easy opponents/sketchy-to-bad QB play.

Tyrod-Peterman this game…a gift. Winston-Fitzpatrick the week before…yummm. The John Fox offense before that. Brett Hundley’s first start before that. They pitched a shutout against Jay Cutler in Week 4.

Sam Bradford ripped them apart opening day. Tom Brady toyed with them Week 2. Matt Stafford almost had the comeback for the ages against them. Good/great QBs are not having a big issue with the Saints defense.

This week against Kirk Cousins…I’d worry. The following week versus Jared Goff – they’ll get smoked.

 

 -- Ted Ginn (1-3-0/1) had a real beaut for fantasy this game. To be fair, Brees threw the ball only 25 times and there were 48 running plays. Ginn did see three targets but two of them lost to penalty. He’s still a strong WR3 candidate any given week…but so are about a thousand other WRs it seems all of a sudden.

 

 -- Saints rookie RB Trey Edmunds (9-48-1) got some garbage time work. He’s not a bad RB prospect. A UDFA guy out of Maryland. Big – 6’1”/223. Fast – 4.48 40-time, but a little stiff (7.25 three-cone). He’s a useful NFL runner, power runner.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest…

41 = Kelvin Benjamin

39 = Deonte Thompson

36 = Jordan Matthews

 

56 = Michael Thomas

50 = Ginn

36 = Snead

29 = Coleman

 

43 = Josh Hill

17 = Fleener

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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