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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk10: Texans v. Rams

Date:
November 14, 2017 12:37 AM
November 14, 2017 12:11 AM

Got a little nervous here for a moment. The Texans took a 7-6 lead in the 2nd-quarter. The Rams offense was stalling golden opportunities and settling for FGs (just three FGs in the 1st-half for the Rams for scoring). Goff hadn’t cracked 100 yards passing by halftime. What?

Were the Rams going to cover the -12.0 spread?

Was The Computer’s projection of Goff as the #1 scoring QB of the week going to blow up in my face?

Not too far into the 2nd-half, Goff dropped that 94-yard gem on Houston’s ass…and the floodgates of fantasy and wagering goodness descended upon us. We expected this to be a bloodbath and, eventually, it was.

The Rams play five division winner/playoff contenders over the next 6 games and three of them on the road. Prepare for the Rams bubble to burst a little. It’s been too easy the last few weeks. One of these next two games at MIN or hosting NO will be a loss, I’m just not sure which one. The Rams need a little dose of reality, I have a feeling. However, if they blow right past this schedule with ease…they are not playoff contenders – they are Super Bowl favorites. Week 14 hosting Philly could be a serious clash of the titans. The Computer says the 7-2 Rams are headed to 12-4.

Don’t forget this Rams team is ‘nails’…they went to Dallas and pulled a game out. They followed that by beating Seattle in every way but the final score, and then they were a rare team, post-Seattle game to go whack their following opponent off a Seattle battle…smoking the very good Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Rams are legit, but they’ve had it a little easy of late…wins over ARI-NYG-HOU.

Houston might as well pack it in. The Titans and Jags keep winning and the Texans’ offense fell down a well without Deshaun Watson. They should play/plan everything towards 2018. They should poach a practice squad QB from some team (like Josh Woodrum) and see if they get lightning in a bottle…just to trade or have as a capable backup. They’ll probably just play out the string in typical fashion seeing losses as ‘good’ for draft pick positioning. The Computer sees them 5-11 to finish.

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Jared Goff (25-37 for 355 yards, 3 TD/0 INT) is saving some FFM seasons all of a sudden. The cute ‘go get this guy’ hysteria I pitched from Weeks 2-3-4-5 has become QB who starts and drops huge fantasy numbers. Even Matthew Berry broke news proclaiming Goff pretty good…realizing that this week. Whaddya know? Thanks for the head’s up…

Don’t get complacent. The schedule has been his friend. Things are about to get more dangerous…harder teams to run it up on. I still love the way Goff is progressing, just keep your eyes peeled for a QB2 to work if you don’t like the Goff matchups.

One quick note on Goff…the 94-yard bomb…that’s what has impressed me so about Goff and made me lock on – the deep ball ability. In this era of dink and dunk, creative screen passes, scrambling around to make plays…Goff is sitting in the pocket and just placing perfect passes medium and deep to receivers in stride. You don’t see that any more. Alex Smith freezes when the opportunity presents. Jameis Winston throws the ball 20 feet over receiver’s heads downfield. Goff is an assassin when the opportunity presents.

Young QB assassin…

Skinny frame…

Destroying opposing defenses…

Hmmmm, who does that remind me of?

Oh, yeah…Tom Brady. Have I mentioned Goff is the next Brady before? Just 118 times? Oh, OK…just checking.

 

 -- Not "The next Tom Brady" but coulda/shoulda been better is Tom Savage (18-36 for 222 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs). He looks dreadful but I would like to advance this – it’s half his problem because he plays like Goff…wants to throw downfield. But he’s Goff circa 2016…when you have absolutely no O-Line and take 5-to-7-step drops you look like an idiot playing QB. The same claims about Goff 2016 are applied to Savage 2017.

Savage has no draft status or support from the media/fans so he’ll drift away into oblivion soon enough. He’s better than this but he’s never going to shine with him holding on to the ball too long and the O-Line being one of the worst in the league. Ask Dak Prescott how things go when you’re getting pressured every mid-drop back. Dak is built to deal with it – Savage is not.

This is going to be a bad Houston offense for the ROS whether they stick with Savage or go to T.J. Yates…pocket passers are dead with Houston 2017. Recently signed QB Josh Johnson would be different, a mobile option. We’ll see if Houston dares go there.

 

 -- D’Onta Foreman (7-18-0) got the start for Houston, shockingly. I say, ‘shockingly’ because the guy was quasi-benched just a few weeks ago for practice-related efforts. Now, he’s starting?

Foreman didn’t do much with his start and then Lamar Miller (11-60-0, 1-21-0/1) came in and ran ‘possessed’ and stole back the lead role the rest of the game.

It doesn’t matter which RB goes because this offense is so bad, and Tom Savage is playing in the wrong era…he doesn’t use his check down RBs properly. There is little PPR work for Miller or Foreman.

This season is so lost for Houston…

 

 -- What Tom Savage does like, what he makes use of, as we’ve pointed out a few times – he likes Bruce Ellington (4-41-1/8), a lot. Since Savage took over as starter the last two weeks – Ellington has 8 targets in each of those two games.

Ellington is a deep-sleeper WR3 this week…especially considering that Patrick Peterson will likely chase DeAndre Hopkins. Ellington is the big beneficiary.

Will Fuller being out for a while only helps Ellington’s cause.

 

 -- C.J. Fiedorowicz (2-10-0/6) came back from injury and played in this game, and had the third most targets on the team. CJF looked rusty but was immediately a part of the action…or attempted part of the action. He’s going to be a sleeper TE1 ahead, but more likely a high-end TE2.

 

 -- We noticed the developing Robert Woods (8-171-2/10) story about a week before the mainstream did a few weeks ago and man has that been salvation of late. Being the #1 WR on the best offense in football is a good thing.

Just note – the schedule is about to ramp up in toughness and NFL teams have been as asleep on Woods as the fantasy experts. NFL teams/coordinators follow the media and hype, so they’ve been trying to stop Sammy Watkins while Watkins hasn’t even mattered to the Rams/Goff. Now, these NFL coordinators who spend 7 days a week at the office and sleep on cots during their 20 hour work day will suddenly realize Woods is the main target, not Watkins. 4 TDs in 2 games tends to ‘jump out’ at highly-paid defensive staffs…

You watch – Goff will now start exploiting extra attention on Woods and go to Watkins or Cooper Kupp (6-47-0/7) ahead.

Woods has 22 targets the past three games. So does Kupp. Be careful getting too far out on Woods.

Watkins is a potential ‘sleeper’ ahead.

 

 -- Texans LB Brennan Scarlett (4 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 3 TFLs) had great numbers in this game. He’s been pretty good the past few weeks – 4 or more tackles in his last 5 games (4.2 tackles per game in that span).

Scarlett was more of a pass rusher for Stanford as a senior/2015 (he spent his first 3 seasons quietly at Cal as an OLB). He was more of a DE his senior season, making 36 tackles and registering 6.5 sacks in 13 games. He was ‘college good’ but not a big-time prospect for the NFL. He went undrafted. It looks like he tried to put weight for the NFL but is dropping down to be more of a linebacker than pure edge guy.

He’s not jumping out at me yet. Good effort. Smart player. Mediocre athlete. Sacks in this game were a bit of luck/chasing. Made plays later in the game not early.

 

Snap Counts of Interest

54 = Higbee

20 = Everett

 

11 = Tavon Austin

10 = Lance Dunbar

 

63 = Fiedorowicz

35 = Stephen Anderson

 

41 = Lamar Miller

16 = D’Onta Foreman

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>