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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk11: Falcons v. Seahawks

Date:
November 22, 2017 9:10 PM
November 22, 2017 9:00 PM

Who knows who would have won if Seattle kicked that last FG attempt from another yard closer or if Mike Davis hadn’t gotten hurt…or how much ATL would have won by if they didn’t have a stupid penalty by Keanu Neal late in the game. Both teams played well. Either could have won. Atlanta did.

My main takeaway is – no one is afraid of Seattle anymore…only the media is. Only THEY think Seattle is physically imposing and scary. The whole 12th Man thing…get that weak S out of here. Here’s Seattle’s 2017 home game record…

Week 2 v. ‘sad’ SF – Won 12-9 and should have lost to a terrible 49ers teams. Couldn’t even score a TD.

Week 4 v. ‘sad’ IND – Won big, but were losing midway through the 3rd-quarter as a backup QB went to Seattle and was unfazed for most of the game.

Week 8 v. HOU – Couldn’t stop Houston, won at the wire.

At this point of the season, 3-0 at home with about 2 quarters of impressive play in those 12 quarters of play.

Week 9 v. WAS – Lost to a wounded Redskins team that had no business winning this game, but the Redskins are a physically and emotionally tougher team and won it.

Week 11 v. ATL – On the national stage of MNF…Atlanta came out and sucker punched them and just didn’t let up but Seattle snuck back in and made it close at the end.

Now, a 3-2 record at home YTD.

 

Seattle is 6-4, and they are damn lucky not to be 4-6/3-7. Their schedule ahead is going to wipe them out of the playoff picture – at SF, a win…and then PHI-JAX-LAR-DAL. Seattle is going to finish 9-7/8-8 out of the playoffs.

…unless Russell Wilson pulls off a miracle, which is never out of the question.

You have Brady-Rodgers on top of the NFL QB mountain, and then Russell Wilson as the next best QB in the NFL. You can have Drew Brees; I’ll take Wilson. The thing with Wilson being so good is – Seattle is desperate to make this a running team led by the defense. Every time that fails, and they have to unleash Wilson…he’s an MVP performer and fantasy god. That’s why he was our top ‘trade for’ guy for several weeks and he has saved many a season.

If you started the fantasy season with Wilson you might have traded him away early…because Darrell Bevell (the single worst coach in football) was running with Eddie Lacy hopes and dreams as his new Marshawn Lynch. Are you kidding me? Pete Carroll and Darrell Bevell are THE WORST. Charlie Whitehurst, Matt Flynn, Tarvaris Jackson, Eddie Lacy in 2017…all on purpose. Russell Wilson was delivered by the GM and saved ALL their asses. Mike McCarthy and Pete Carroll are the two luckiest men on earth.

I pray Seattle loses out/has an 8-8 or worse season. It’s the only way Darrell Bevell might get replaced. If Bevell is gone, Russell Wilson may be the best QB to own for fantasy for the next five years. If Bevell is back, Wilson might be a low-end QB1 as Bevell tries to get LeGarrette Blount or whomever to fulfill their fantasy of Doug Marrone-esque running games.

On the other hand, there is Atlanta. The Computer is buzzing that Atlanta’s internal numbers are popping…that this is the new ‘hot’ team in the NFL. This is the one to watch coming on strong. The Computer called the Buffalo rise and fall. It liked the Saints and Chargers back when that made little sense. Now, it’s seeing a similar Saints/Chargers-like pattern forming with the Falcons…which means The Computer is saying they’re much better than their record and about to continue this win streak.

The Computer is playing out the NFC South as follows (in the specific order)…

11-5 Atlanta

11-5 New Orleans

11-5 Carolina

If true…Dallas and Seattle are about done for the playoff hopes.  

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- How about Mike Davis (6-18-0, 2-41-0/2)? Was that not impressive? He was on his way to a team-changing night as he became the lead back they’d been looking for all along…but, of course, pulled his groin on a play and likely to miss at least a week or two.

Davis ran with speed and power. He just works/looks like a starting NFL RB…a three-down starter. How he had to wait this long to get a chance is beyond me…and totally logical given the awful NFL scouting of the preseason.

Another player the 49ers just gave up freely. Joe Williams and Matt Breida are there, though.

 

With the Davis injury and Eddie Lacy being the saddest, most pathetic RB in the NFL…and Thomas Rawls deactivated (that’s not good) and C.J. Prosise on the IR – the Seahawks hopes turn to J.D. McKissic (7-30-0, 5-23-0/6).

I’m sure they’ll ‘start’ Eddie Lacy, etc., but especially if Rawls is inactive…McKissic is getting 10+ touches again Week 12. He might get 15+ touches and maybe 5-8 of them just little flare passes out of the backfield as quasi-runs to get him out in space.

No Rawls, I’m all-in on J.D. vs. SF.

Rawls playing…I’m still feeling pretty good for PPR.

 

 -- The main reason The Computer likes Atlanta all of a sudden – here comes the Falcons DST. Before this game, Atlanta held five of its last 6 opponents to 20 or fewer points in a game. Out of nowhere, seemingly, the Falcons are #4 in the league in sacks (and Vic Beasley missed several games) – one behind everyone’s sudden favorite team/defense…the Chargers. Atlanta is #7 best in passing yards allowed this season…ahead of LAC, NO, LAR, MIN, SEA.

I’d love to say they’re a great sleeper DST, but given their schedule we’re looking at Weeks 12 and 15 vs. Tampa as solid plays, but Weeks 13/MIN, 14/NO, 16/NO makes them a Week 12 and 15 rental only.

 

 -- Can I just say this…when you watched MNF, did you notice Julio Jones (5-71-0/10) was really never open? If he’s such a great athlete…why is CB-pariah Byron Maxwell glued to him short and long?

Julio’s nap-time rolled over from Sunday’s at 1pm to early bed-time on Monday nights now too, apparently.

 

 -- I’m a big Tevin Coleman (20-43-1, 1-15-0/2) fan but I’m only using him if Devonta Freeman is out and I’m not when he’s back. Coleman getting 1-2 targets a game, even as a full starter, is egregious. I’m running from all things Steve Sarkisian when Freeman returns.

Coleman has taken exactly 20 carries the past two games, and has 1 catch in each of those games.

Check this out…

Coleman’s catches in each game this season, starting Week 1: 4-2-3-4-1-0-1-1-1-1.

Unreal.

Anyone remember how great he was as a receiver out of the backfield last season? Atlanta has.

 

 -- Three IDP notes…

Seattle DB Bradley McDougald (5 tackles) was a top 5-10 IDP DB last season for most of the year when starting for Tampa Bay. He’s been a role player in Seattle, but now starting for Kam Chancellor. If you need a DB sleeper…

Seattle DL, former top 5 draft pick, Dion Jordan (4 tackles, 1 TFL) had another decent showing…especially for just playing 19 snaps. Last week, a sack in his debut game…and now 4 tackles. Deep IDP sleeper.

I don’t know when, but someday Atlanta rookie DB Damontae Kazee (2 tackles) is going to be an NFL starter and will matter for fantasy…especially if he becomes more of a safety than corner. That dude plays with more energy and aggression than about any rookie from 2017.

 

Snap Counts of Interest…

62 = Baldwin

61 = Richardson

47 = Lockett

 

50 = McKissic

16 = Davis

06 = Lacy

 

19 = Dion Jordan

 

03 = Eric Saubert

06 = Kazee

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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