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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk11: Ravens v. Packers

Date:
November 24, 2017 7:36 PM
November 24, 2017 7:00 PM

Strange game.

Three turnovers on Green Bay’s first three drives and Baltimore only took a 3-0 lead from it. It kept feeling like the Packers were about to get back in the game…and then the next thing you know the clock is winding down and Green Bay still hasn't scored. 23-0 final.

Judging it as a beauty contest, it didn’t seem like a 23-0 lopsided game. Green Bay won most of the statistical battle, sad as the stats were, but 5-1 turnovers for Baltimore destroyed things. It was kinda evenly played (bad) but the turnovers ruled the day, as they normally do.

Green Bay is still alive for the playoffs…barely. This game hurt them…a lot. They’re now 5-5, likely to lose at Pittsburgh this week to fall to 5-6. You need 10 wins to get to the NFC playoff picture. The Packers will have to win out.

They might.

Weeks 13-14…TB and at CLE. If they lose to PIT and then win TB-CLE…it’s a 7-6 Green Bay going to face at CAR, MIN, at DET to finish 2017 – possibly with Aaron Rodgers. Anything is possible with Aaron Rodgers.

I don’t think Green Bay is a lock to beat Tampa Bay or Cleveland for that matter, and then Rodgers has to have a miracle comeback and then win three straight versus playoff level teams. The playoffs are probably not happening. If Green Bay somehow beats the Steelers…then look out!

Baltimore is very much in the playoff hunt. The AFC final wild-card likely needs 8 wins to be considered and 9 wins probably does the trick. The Ravens are currently the #6 seed today/last team in. The Chargers (5-6), Bengals (4-6), and Houston (4-6) are their real threats for the final wild-card. The Ravens play Houston this week in a monumental game for Baltimore. Beat Houston, and it ends the Texans threat and really pushes the Ravens as odds-on for the last wild-card. Lose to Houston and all hell will break loose.

The Ravens project to go 2-3/3-2 after the Houston game so the Texans game is a must-win…for both teams. I don’t think Baltimore can do it/get to the playoffs -- but if there is one team I am always wrong about…it’s Baltimore.

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Going into this game write-up, I was ready to destroy Brett Hundley (21-36 for 239 yards, 0 TD/3 INTs) as a terrible QB and maybe the worst QB scouting call I’ve ever made. All those things are very much possible but after re-watching this game…I was talked/watched down off my ledge.

I’m not saying Hundley is on the come or ready to rise, but he’s not as bad as the media is slamming him as. Comparing him to Joe Flacco in this game…I wouldn’t say Hundley embarrassed himself.

Hundley drove the team down the field on the first drive and on a designed end zone throw to Randall Cobb, a nice designed route where he was open…Jimmy Smith, who was not covering Cobb, did not follow Davante Adams but instead ditched him quick and Smith backed right into the pass intended for the wide-open Cobb for a critical INT. Smith made a smart/brilliant play that might have faked out any QB. It happened quick and was hard for the QB to read. It wasn't an embarrassment for Hundley. He later threw a pick-six as he was desperately throwing with time escaping away and was sacked by three guys at the same time, on a quick slant pass play…because his protection is horrific.

I’m only saying it wasn't as bad as I expected to see. I don’t see Hundley throwing blindly into coverage. I see him making some decent throws. I expected to see an ‘F’ and saw a ‘D+’.

I grade ‘D+’ because Hundley is not showing any ‘it’ factor at all. Tom Savage, speaking of QBs I like but seem like bad scouting calls, is showing hints of the ‘it’ factor – he has an excellent arm and makes great throws when given time. Hundley doesn’t seem confident enough for me. He’s jumpy in the pocket. I’m not ready to close the book on Savage…I am on Hundley, or at least I want to. I’ll give him 1-2 more games to see if he pulls himself out. Remember, with no blocking and shitty playcalling…Jared Goff was a fool in 2016, and he’s a breakout star of the #1 offense in the NFL not even a year later. Carson Wentz was a mess most of last year as well.

I’ve seen Hundley better than this, so I don’t hammer in the final nails yet. I know there was some talent here back to his college days. It looks mostly dead, now, though.

 

 -- Hundley’s main target, without a doubt, is Davante Adams (8-126-0/10)…who is becoming a junior DeAndre Hopkins for this team all the sudden…the top target whether covered or not.

Targets in his last 5 games: 11-10-5-8-10 (8.8 per game).

Adams’s last 3 games with Hundley: 6.7 rec. (9.3 targets), 83.0 yards, 0.3 TDs per game.

Jordy Nelson’s last 3 games with Hundley: 3.0 rec. (6.3 targets), 26.3 yards, 0.0 TDs per game.

Nelson hasn’t scored a TD with Hundley at QB.

 

 -- Jamaal Williams (18-57-0, 4-38-/6) didn’t show me much as the lead RB in this game. He’s not bad, he’s just not that good.

Davante Mays (3-0-0) jumped in and fumbled away one of his chances…which meant banishment to the pit of misery.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Ty Montgomery is a surprise ‘active’ Sunday…you may want to jump on him if he gets cut in your league – Green Bay could save their season vs. TB and CLE Weeks 13-14, and he will supposedly be back by then…if not this week.

 

 -- Danny Woodhead (1-2-0, 5-21-0/6) looked very slow and mediocre in his return from injury. Flacco is looking for him and he’s going to get 5+ targets a game easy…but I don’t see him doing much with them as rusty or stiff as he looked in this game.

 

 -- Ravens LB Patrick Onwausor (10 tackles) was a ‘monster in the middle’ in this game. He levied some huge hits and made some big stops on 3rd and 4th down running plays. Impressive performance from a guy that has been flying below my radar.

He’s averaging 6.6 tackles per game the past 5 games.

 

 -- I love Ravens DE/LB Matt Judon (7 tackles, 20 sacks, 3 TFLs)…and what a game he had here. He has 5.0 sacks in his past 5 games. Five games ago he registered a 14 tackle game.

 

 -- I’ve doubted the Ravens defense, and it is true – they’re beating up on weak opponents and get kinda smacked around otherwise…but they are working big when they are supposed to. Weeks 15-16 with CLE-IND might be FF-title worthy action.

 

Snap Counts of Interest…

60 = Jamaal Williams

05 = D. Mays

 

38 = Collins

13 = Woodhead

10 = Allen

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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