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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk12: Bears v. Eagles

Date:
November 30, 2017 11:54 AM
December 3, 2017 10:42 AM

REPOST -- WRONG DATE on Original Post

This was another Bears’ embarrassment, which makes me mad but I guess I need to be happy about it. I’m mad because of ‘what might have been’ with this team. I’m happy because they are completely flat and looking worse every week, and it’s clinching the fact that the John Fox regime will be run out of town soon. They should do it/fire him in-season because that guy is a joke of a head coach for this team. Even the decent defense he had built has cratered.

On the other side of this game, the Eagles’ charmed life continues. They are good but have played either bad teams or good teams that have something wrong at the time of their game. The Eagles escaped the Chargers Week 4 before LAC got hot like they are now. They caught Dallas with all their injuries. They caught Washington with all their O-Line almost out. They were down to Carolina but Luke Kuechly got hurt in-game, and everything turned. This a ‘B’ team having an ‘A+’ run of luck. They play Seattle this week…after the Seahawks secondary has been ripped apart due to injury. Week 14 vs. the Rams…the day before the big game Jared Goff will probably fall into a woodchipper by accident and Sean McVay will announce he’s leaving to take the University of Tennessee job.

Philly at Rams Week 14 is potentially for the NFC #1 seed…which is massive because the Rams going to Philadelphia in January is a major issue…versus playing at home in the warm, offensive enhancing California sun. I cannot wait for this game…except that whole woodchipper incident will be a bummer.

I am re-watching and reporting on this game for only one reason…Mitchell Trubisky, because a few of you are staring down a potential start of him this week for logical reasons. Mostly Dak Prescott owners. I’ll address that, but first I’ll clear the short notes and hit Trubisky Week 13 outlook last.

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Jay Ajayi (5-26-0, 1-7-0/3) is a complete joke of an NFL running back. He’s the Eagles 4th- 5th best RB on their roster. There’s a reason Miami just ‘gave him away’.

Watching him in this game, he has no east-west ability at all. Full head of steam, straight ahead he’s OK. Any shift needed and he is enveloped by defenders. He has poor agility and a degenerative knee issue. On top of that, he cannot catch a football. Alfred Morris laughs at Ajayi’s catching ability.

In this game, early on, Carson Wentz threw Ajayi a short lateral pass and Ajayi moved his arms in a position to catch…like…like…like have you ever had a load of laundry done in the dryer and you go to take it out and there is no laundry basket around. So, you’re lazy and don’t want to make two trips so you try to carry the entire load in your arms like a human laundry basket? And then that one sock or pair of underwear always falls from your scooped ball of clothes, and for some reason you bend over with your overloaded arms to get the lost item with your fingers but then more clothes fall out of your leaning tower of Piza of laundry because you just can’t do this balancing act?

I just described Ajayi trying to catch a football. He tries to trap or hump it into his chest…and more than half the time the pass to him just flops incomplete.

 

 -- Tre McBride (2-20-0/6) was so bad in this game he was cut afterward. A team with no WRs just cut one WR cold because he was so bad in-game. McBride has been starting!

…and this is what Trubisky has to work with.

 

 -- We projected Jordan Howard (7-6-0, 2-13-0/2) because of the matchup and obviously he did. We also assumed it would mean more work for Tarik Cohen (2 carries for -11 yards, 2-8-0/2) because…why not? They’d need to do something, right?

Only an idiot would not make use of Cohen in such a game as this.

Knock-knock.

Who’s there?

John Fox.

Your idiot has arrived.

You can’t count on a Cohen spike game, even though one will happen again this season, because John Fox makes no sense as an NFL head coach. And this Darrell Loggans O-C…this is the offensive tape you want to use for your next job when your ass is tossed out the door? It’s OK, some idiotic NFL team will hire a defensive coordinator for their new head coach in 2018 and they’ll in-turn hire Loggans because ‘reasons’. ‘Experience’, I guess.

 

 -- OK, so you have Dak Prescott and you’re scared to death to start him on Thursday night, but your QB waivers/free agency has little options. There’s Jimmy Garoppolo and Mitchell Trubisky as names you know you like the talent on…but James Franchise is an unknown and Trubisky looks talented but gets all Fox-ed up with the game plan and working with the Tre McBride’s and Josh Bellamy’s of the world.

What’s a fantasy GM to do?

What if Dak has another 0 TD, multi-pick game…and you get three days to stew about it?

This is one of the most complex questions of 2017…Dak or Trubisky. Only ‘Do I start Alfred Morris or Rod Smith’ is more perplexing. Stupid Thursday night games…

One issue at a time.

There’s only one reason (besides raw talent) that you would consider Trubisky this week – he’s facing the 49ers and they’re not good at defense.

My question to you would be -- What makes you think John Fox is going to take advantage of that? You know John Fox is not going to do anything logical. I mean, how many times have we seen this…starting Mike Glennon. Trying to suppress Trubisky. Not getting the ball to Cohen. The time they beat the Bears and threw 7 passes doing so. Trubisky has two wins this year, both against winning teams (CAR and BAL)…and he threw 16 passes vs. the Ravens and 7 vs. the Panthers in those games.

If the Bears jump out 7-0 in this game…do you think John Fox says, “What the hell! Let’s have some fun and see what this kid can do!” Or will he run Jordan Howard 30 times up the middle and try to salt the game away…against the #30 run defense in the NFL (SF)? What about this season has led you to believe ‘this is the week’ Fox cuts it all loose and has some fun?

Maybe he does…but you are trying to find a needle in a haystack…because we all have haystacks on our property and that analogy is totally relevant to today’s non-farming culture. I don’t even know if we have a needle in our house. Sadly, I have as many needles in my house as Trubisky will probably have TD passes this week. It seems like a crafty start this week with the 49ers and all, but you’re betting on John Fox here and not Trubisky…and that should scare you.

Even if Trubisky gets more leash…Dontrelle Inman? Josh Bellamy? Dion Sims? Tarik Cohen never getting the ball? What upside? I love Trubisky, and The Computer is liking the matchup…but this may be a case of getting too smart for our own good.

Trubisky as opposed to Dak Prescott. What do we know about Prescott coming into this game? Yes, his last games were bad…0 TDs/5 INTs, but Trubisky has given you 2 TDs/2 INTs in that same span…not a massive difference. Dak has also rushed for a TD in that stretch and had another last week called back. We know Dak USED to be the top fantasy QB until the crisis hit. We know he was missing some of his O-Line and that his three games have been facing on-fire defenses rushing the passer (ATL, PHI, LAC). This week he gets a Washington defense that has been struggling a bit of late. He’s at home on TNF. He might have his whole line intact (watch Zach Martin status). If Dallas gets in scoring position, Dak is likely to run it in…not as much with Trubisky.

I think Dak could get 10 pts from running the ball and Trubisky maybe 3-4…then if they have similar good-bad passing days, at least you have the rushing edge with Dak. I would bet Dak rushing for 2 TDs as a bigger probability than either of them throwing for 2 TDs.

If I had to play it, do-or-die…I go with the QB that has worked, with a staff that appreciates him, a better group of receivers and a game that has deep meaning for them. I go with Dak…especially, if your opponent has Dez or Witten. You’re not crazy considering Trubisky, but it’s a bit of a hail mary.

Dak vs. Garoppolo? You’re killing me. That’s a much tougher call. Depends on 4 or 6pts per pass TDs, bonuses, etc.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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