ffm logo

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

Get the app

Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk13: Bucs v. Packers

Date:
December 5, 2017 6:16 PM
December 5, 2017 6:00 PM

This game was a chore to grind through on a second watch…it was no treat ‘live’ either. Two teams running the ball constantly between the tackles with boring RBs – each team hoping to put each other to sleep, I guess.

Green Bay jumped out 17-7 and looked like they would fight their way to a safe playoff-hopes-kept-alive win, and then the next thing you know it’s 20-17 Tampa Bay. The Packers tied it 20-20 and it remained that way into overtime, and then the Packers put together a long drive and game-winning TD.

Huge game for the Packers because the playoffs just came into view. The 6-6 Packers will likely go to 7-6 with a win at the Browns (not a given) this week, and then get Aaron Rodgers back for Weeks 15-17. If Rodgers leads them to a win-out finish…Green Bay would be 10-6 and have wins over other potential 10-win wild card teams like Seattle and Dallas. The table is set perfectly for Green Bay…they could even afford a loss to Minnesota Week 16 and be the strongest 9-win team looking for a playoff spot.

Tampa Bay is playing out the string and they were pretty sedate in this game…but still almost won it because the Packers are so inept on both sides of the ball right now. You’ve heard of games where they say, “It’s a shame either of these teams have to lose!” Well, it was a shame either of these teams were credited with a professional football ‘win’.

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I watched back all the Peyton Barber (23-102-0, 4-41-0/4) carries…and I still don’t get it. How did this guy rack up 100+ yards rushing? He has no pop in his legs at all…just a guy getting carries and somehow wound up with 100+ yards rushing.

I promise you…there is nothing here. He is going to go away and never be heard from again soon enough. I cannot believe this guy stays on the Bucs roster and Mike Davis sat on Seattle’s practice squad all 2017 season.

I promise I will only reference Mike Davis egregiously sitting on the practice squad all season between 37 and 114 more times before the end of the season. You better hope he doesn’t run for 100+ in Week 14 or you won’t be able to live with me at all for the next week-to-a year.

 

 -- A touch better, but still nothing wonderful…Jamaal Williams (21-113-1, 2-10-0/3) also racked up 100+ yards rushing. NFL running backing is very hard…if these two can rush for 100+ yards in a game. Or these two defenses suck…and that’s probably more to do with it.

 

 -- Cameron Brate (2-39-2/6) was reunited with his long-lost love Jameis Winston, and he scored 2 TDs. In 8 starts with Winston this season…6 TDs for Brate.

FYI, Mike Evans has 4 TDs total this season.

When Winston comes back, he wouldn’t be ‘Jameis Winston’ if he didn’t ignore the elite TE in his midst…O.J. Howard (1-17-0/2) saw two whole targets and had one catch.

Where did all the “Jameis Winston is the best young NFL QB” talk go, anyway? The same people who brought you that have clammed up…and are now rushing to tell you Jared Goff is lucky to be with Sean McVay, and Case Keenum is a star, and Dak Prescott is a creation of Ezekiel, and Deshaun Watson is above reproach, and Carson Wentz is the MVP, and Sam Darnold is good. I’m not swayed by any of them. As persuasive as Colin Cowherd, who I love, is…he’s constantly wrong about QBs. He changes favorite QBs like socks…based on whatever he saw this past week. I haven’t heard him call Derek Carr the new Aaron Rodgers lately, but I know he doesn’t think Mitchell Trubisky is all that wonderful and it is meaningless chatter to me.

Jameis Winston is the poster child for football scouting being a joke.

 

 -- What do I know about QBs, anyway? I thought Brett Hundley (13-22 for 84 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) was better than Winston-Mariota. He’s better than Winston but not Mariota…and in the end, Hundley just doesn’t cut it as an NFL passer. 84 yards against Tampa Bay? I mean, I know Mike McCarthy is the most overrated coaching mind in the NFL…but you have to hit triple digits for yards against TB, come on!

One more week of Hundley and then you’ll never see him playing again on purpose in the NFL.

Maybe it would have been different had Hundley gone elsewhere and was pushed to be a starter…like Winston, but we’ll never know.

 

 -- Hundley’s deficiencies have killed off Jordy Nelson (5-17-0/8) as a fantasy asset and made Randall Cobb mostly disappear. I’ve seen Jordy hit FF free agency in some non-shark leagues…you might grab him for free or in a cheaper trade because Rodgers is coming Week 15.

 

 -- OK, so what about the Green Bay DST for Week 14 at Cleveland?

My first comment is – anything ‘vs. Cleveland’ has DST value in a given week. DeShone Kizer is a turnover machine; the worst QB in the NFL. The weather will be high 20s so not optimal for a high-flying shootout.

Secondly, this GB defense is statistically ‘OK’. Middle of the pack in passing and rushing yards allowed. They’ve had a tougher schedule of opponents to face and have been scored upon by good teams…like 25-35 points allowed, and they’ve been more 14-25 points allowed to the lesser teams on the schedule. With Hundley at QB, the GB defense has faced three weaker offenses – CHI, BAL, TB. They allowed 16-23-20 points to them. Mostly GB, under Hundley, tries to run the ball/run clock to find a win…that helps keeps opposing scoring down. They are middle of the pack in sacks and turnovers. The Browns are the worst offense they’ve faced by far.

I would suspect the Packers hold Cleveland to under 20 points. The Browns have scored over 20 points just twice this season. Given Josh Gordon is back as a ‘throw it up for grabs’ weapon…and the Packers have no real CBs…I could see the Browns with 14-17 points here, perhaps even 20+. The Packers probably get 2-4 sacks for sure. Kizer likely throws at least 1 INT…as he has 15 through 12 games to-date.

I would only add this…

In this game, the Packers’ defense looked lethargic. I mean, a must-win game and Peyton freaking Barber ran for 100+ yards…he didn’t gash them but he found 3-4-5-6 yards constantly. Winston came back from injury and completed 65.6% of his passes and didn’t throw a pick. On the plus side…GB did register 7 sacks, against a team that just lost it’s two top OLs.

 

Snap Counts of interest…

48 = Jamaal Williams

02 = Aaron Jones

 

55 = OJ Howard

43 = Cam Brate

 

53 = Peyton barber

19 = Chearles Sims

05 = Jacquizz Rodgers

Tags:

About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>