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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk13: Chiefs v. Jets

Date:
December 5, 2017 12:43 PM
December 5, 2017 12:11 PM

I know the world is still looking at this like – “What happened to the Chiefs?” and “How can the Chiefs get fixed?” As we’ve been saying for weeks – the reality is Kansas City is a mediocre, borderline ‘bad’ football team with a poor offensive game plan and a terrible defense. It’s pretty simple.

The Chiefs would be nothing…like they might lose out ‘bad’ if not for Tyreek Hill. Once again, Tyreek is propping up this team – and the more they use him the more chance they have to get back on the tracks and reclaim the AFC West. Changing the play-caller made an obvious difference here – the best they’ve used Tyreek all season. However, you can’t change human-coaching nature. The final 4 plays in this game for KC…at the Jets 23-yard line, down by 7 – none of the plays were to Tyreek. After he just caught a 30+ yard pass to get them down there…the clock running…needing a TD…wouldn’t you at least get Hill a bubble screen and see if he could weave his after-the-catch magic? Kelce-Hunt-Robinson-Wilson got the looks instead…while Hill was going out for intermediate passes. KC left the win on the field…23 yards away.

Kansas City is terrible right now. Fortunately, the Raiders may be the worst team in football after Cleveland…so KC might get a sweet relief win this week.

The Jets are still alive, fleeting as it might be. They are now 5-7. If they beat dying Denver this week…they jump to 6-7, and if the Ravens lose to the Steelers…then a 6-7 Jets team would be one game behind 7-6 Baltimore for the wild-card.

If the 6-7 Jets have at NO Week 15 and then LAC Week 16 followed by at NE Week 17. Assuming they lose to the Saints, just give them a win against LAC coming east in the cold Week 16 for argument’s sake…they would be 7-8 heading to New England (who may rest everyone). The Ravens could be 8-7 at that point and playing a 7-8 Cincy team, maybe. NYJ-LAC-BAL-CIN-BUF could all be in an 8-8 cluster to finish 2017 and the Jets with a win over LAC and potentially a better record against the teams in the cluster and in AFC play – they could pull this off even losing one more game this season. Win out and they have a real chance at the playoffs.

I mention all that because the Jets have everything to play for this week, and I am considering them as a sleeper DST this week – I want them motivated. We’ll dig into that DST play last in the player notes.

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Two quick notes on my beloved Tyreek Hill (6-185-2/9), who poetically led many of us to the playoffs with the win this week…

1: Tyreek was NOT ‘killing you’ as I heard several times throughout this season. He’s now #8 in PPR PPG scoring this season and #5 in non-PPR.

Yes, I am a scouting genius.

2: Why I’m excited that this sudden Hill spark can keep up and carry us through the FF playoffs – because of the new play-caller for KC. Alex Smith took more shots deep to Hill than he has all season. But note…Smith underthrew one for a missed/easy 70+ yard TD to Hill earlier in this game. He also hit Hill for a 50+ yard catch on the sidelines, and Hill made a fantastic catch but was a step out of bounds.

This was very nearly a possible 8 catch, 300+ yards, 3 TD event…plus, Hill nearly broke a punt return for a TD as well.

Tarik Cohen stands alone on the side of the road with a single tear rolling down his cheek watching this game.

 

 -- The Tyreek Hill fireworks overshadows a fantastic game and season performance from Robby Anderson (8-107-0/12). Anderson lined up all over and caught passes everywhere. Marcus Peters was no big deal for him.

Anderson caught a bubble screen and raced it towards the goal line and fell a yard short in this one. Had he scored…get this…he would have been a top 12 PPG WR for the season in PPR and non-PPR.

Who called Anderson’s possible greatness when he was a UDFA guy in 2015 when the Jets drafted two other WRs that year and no one thought Robby would even make the team?

I’m a scouting genius.

Tough sledding the next two weeks with Robby at DEN and at NO (assuming Lattimore back).

 

 -- Jermaine Kearse (9-157-0/10) has back-to-back 100+ yard games, and he’s solid…but I would trust him even less at DEN, at NO. He’s more a WR3 wild-card the next few weeks.

Anderson and Kearse both going off in this game – I guess Darrelle Revis isn’t the answer for KC?

 

 -- Because of at DEN, at NO…and then hosting LAC – I’d like to endorse Josh McCown (26-36 for 331 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 2 rushing TDs) because of how well he is playing but I can’t. He’s been great, but the sweet upside is lacking at DEN, at NO most likely. Denver sucks but their corners are still playing with some pride. It’s not as scary as it used to be facing DEN, but it’s not what I’d prefer at this stage.

I’d rather have Alex Smith (19-33 for 366 yards, 4 TD/0 INT) than McCown…hosting OAK-LAC-MIA for a three-game homestand ahead. Plus, if they are opening up the playbook to Hill…you get these kinds of results.

 

 -- Kareem Hunt (9-40-0, 3-23-0/5) was again a loser, even with the new play calling. Hunt definitely doesn’t look the same as earlier this season. He now looks like he did in college – good-not-great. I’m a fan, but everyone got way too far out on him.

You can’t see him as more than an RB2-3 right now until something changes.

 

 -- Austin Seferian-Jenkins (2-7-0/3) has dried up as of late…gone are those TDs propping up his numbers. However, at DEN, at NO may favor him for more of a shot at low-end TE1 relevance. Maybe.

 

 -- OK, the Jets DST

The upside is they are facing the Broncos offense. Here’s Denver’s points in games in their last nine games starting with Week 4: 16-10-0-19-23-16-17-14-9 (13.8 FF PPG).

Their last 6 games of scoring with Siemian starting/playing heavy: 16-10-0-19-14-9 (10.7 PPG).

Trevor Siemian has turned into a disaster. They couldn’t score but 9 points against Miami last week. They got 14 late, lucky points on terrible Oakland the week before that. This is maybe the second worst offense in the league right now. When Siemain STARTS, his last 7 games starting…3 TDs/11 INTs.

The Broncos cannot run. They cannot protect the passer. Siemian has the yips. It’s a great set-up for the Jets.

But is the Jets defense any good?

Let’s look at them versus bad offense for context:

Week 1 v. BUF = Allowed 21 points, 2 sacks, 1 pick…the Bills ran all over them

Week 3 v. MIA = Held Miami to 6 points…a last second TD away from a shutout. 1 INT, 3 sacks.

Week 4 v. JAX = Held the Jags to 20 points in an OT win…7 points off a fake punt. 1 INT, 1 sack

Week 5 v. CLE = Held CLE to 14 points, but Kevin Hogan came in and nearly saved the Browns. 2 INTs, 1 sack

Week 7 v. MIA = Allowed 31 points to Cutler/Moore…2 INTs, 3 sacks. Not good.

Week 9 TNF v. BUF = They crushed BUF but garbage time pushed the Bills to 21 points. 0 INT but 7 sacks.

Week 10 v. TB = Held Fitzpatrick to 15 points, 1 INT, 1 sack.

Note -- Week 11 they had Carolina down but gave up a late D TD and a PR TD to lose the game. The Jets defense was pretty good this game – 0 INT, 3 sacks.

This Week 13 game v. KC…the Chiefs scored 14 points in the first 5 minutes with a new/confusing play-caller. The Jets then stuffed the Chiefs for the next 55 minutes holding them to only 17 more points…and almost all of it due to Tyreek. Denver doesn’t have a Tyreek.

My guess would be that the Jets likely hold the Broncos under 20 points for sure. They get at least 1 INT and 2-3 sacks. They’ll be useful with a chance at D TDs because of the INT odds with Siemian, and the Broncos bad O-Line leading to potential sacks. Denver is the third most sacked team in the league.

The Jets are #21 in points allowed this season but most of that was a Week 2 beatdown to Oakland (45 points and Carolina’s 35 Week 12). In the seven games with weaker offenses to face (above) the Jets have allowed 18.3 PPG.

The Jets turned around as a team in Week 3 and are 5-5 since Week 3. Both their offense and defense are much improved. It’s not the best defense but it’s ‘OK’ and if you saw them that TNF game squash the Bills…they can flash some ‘very good’ at times. Denver is an easy matchup. The Jets are playing inspired…credit to Todd Bowles. There is potential here for Week 14.

 

Snap Counts of Interest…

37 = Powell

35 = Forte

19 = McGuire

 

48 = Ragland

35 = Pierre-Louis

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>