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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk13: Lions v. Ravens

Date:
December 6, 2017 12:07 PM
December 6, 2017 11:55 AM

For the 40th+ consecutive game in a row…I don’t understand what the Ravens are doing and how they keep winning. I bet Detroit +2.5, and felt great about it…and then the Lions were down 20-0 at the half. As soon as I write the game off in my mind on Sunday, wrote in my notebook a loss on the bet…the next thing I know – 27-20 the Lions pulled within 7 points and looked like the superior team (as they had most of the day)

The Ravens kicked an FG with 6+ minutes left to take a 30-20 lead. On the ensuing drive, Stafford threw a wounded duck under pressure (the play he got hurt and out of the game on) and it got picked off. The Ravens chewed clock and scored…37-20. The Lions backup QB came in and threw a pick-six to cap the 44-20 loss. What the heck? It was just 30-20 Ravens 6 minutes prior!

The Lions fumbled a shotgun snap on their first series, on a 3rd down situation. They recovered the ball, but obviously didn’t convert a 1st-down and it also took them out of FG range. Soon after, their normally reliable kicker shanked an FG attempt. Soon after that, a sack/fumble turnover on Stafford. This whole game was a black cat crossing the Lions’ path. When it was 20-0 Ravens at the half, I thought…maybe, the Ravens do have a great defense? Then the Lions drove all over them and almost pulled into the lead after halftime. The Lions moved the ball well…they just had an odd set of circumstances costing them the game.

I won’t say, “Oh, the Lions were so much better!” My main message would be – the Ravens still don’t look that good to me, but somehow they are 7-5. It might be I just have a bad vision on the Ravens and need to have my vision corrected.

Nahhh. I’ll just keep complaining, and betting against them…and they’ll keep winning…and I’ll keep losing bets against them. If I have the Ravens in my Blazing Five, for or against, you should avoid that bet or just do the opposite of what The Computer says to do. You’ve been warned. We cannot be trusted predicting the Ravens…seriously, it’s been an issue for 3-4 years now.

Actually, The Computer is 5-3-1 the last nine games of Ravens predictions, so scrap that. It just ‘feels’ like I’m 0-9.

The Ravens are 7-5 and headed to Pittsburgh. The Steelers without Shazier and the Ravens without Jimmy Smith. The Computer likes the Steelers to win but then likes the Ravens to win out…a 10-6 record is now in range, but I’d bet the Ravens cannot win three in-a-row – so, 9-7 is more likely and in the AFC that likely seals the #6 playoff spot.

Detroit could have been the one going to 10 wins had they pulled off this game, but they didn’t and are likely going to finish 9-7 if Stafford’s healthy…and finish worse if he isn’t. The Lions won’t have a quality win that will matter for tie-breakers for the wild card, so it’s pretty much over for the Lions.

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Tion Green (11-51-1) is not the future or the current for the Lions…

4.79 40-time…that’s like a fullback.

7.38 three-cone, 4.58 shuttle…there are offensive linemen measured more nimble from the 2017 draft.

5’11”/225+

Senior season at Cincinnati (2016): 743 yards rushing in 12 games, 4.7 ypc, 2 TDs, 29 catches for 167 yards.

Really?

This is the Lions answer to their RB woes?

I don’t think so.

Green entered this game and peeled off a 33-yard run through a wide-open hole…that got the Lions all jacked up! Later, he pounded his way to a 6-yard TD run. Tion Green is Matt Asiata if Asiata wasn’t as good at football.

Theo Riddick (9-21-1, 5-41-0/5) started, was awful running the ball as usual. Zach Zenner came in for one carry, for 4 yards. When Green had his ‘lucky’ run -- the Lions saw young Walter Payton and started feeding him…10 carries for 18 yards after the 33-yard jolt. Great…

You can always count on the Lions to work their RB depth chart upside down for talent. Ameer Abdullah has been godawful since day one…nothing special, bad hands, constant fumbler back to his college days – yet, the Lions keep forcing him in. Riddick is the relief back and 3rd-down guy, and he has good hands but he’s slow as death…like Tion Green. The only talent on this RB depth chart is never used properly – Zenner and Dwyane Washington.

I’m tired of talking about Zenner and Washington, so I’m done concocting scenarios where the Lions are backed into a corner and discover one of them…like Bruce Arians with David Johnson or Pete Carroll with Mike Davis. Don’t listen to me if I call Zenner or Washington a sleeper on the Lions. Wait until they leave. Washington could be cut soon and find new employment…and Zenner should just leave and become a doctor because the team is biased against him.

Zenner not getting the call with Abdullah down is a dereliction of duty. So, they lose to a weak Ravens team by 24…#justice.

 

 -- Matt Stafford (24-29 for 292 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) I’d say is 40% likely to play this week…and then his hand issue could linger. Last year, when he tried to play through a right hand injury – it was not very good.

The Stafford injury is a real threat to Golden Tate and Marvin Jones, among others for fantasy. I’d prepare for the worst. Stafford out this week and they lose -- and then Stafford no need to rush back once out of the playoff picture with a bad hand.

Jake Rudock (3-5for 24 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) is competent but is Nathan Peterman-esque…good guy, studious, first in/last out BS…slow delivery and telegraphs passes, and is a turnover waiting to happen. Stafford out would put the Bucs in play for a sleeper DST for the week.

 

 -- If Alex Collins (15-75-2, 2-23-0/2) cannot play this week, I’d expect more Javorius Allen than Danny Woodhead running the ball, but then Woodhead seeing more targets. You’d think any RB versus the Steelers would be not-so-hot, but without Shazier-Matakevich…the Ravens starting RB is an opportunity in a must-win for Baltimore.

The Ravens may split West-Allen-Woodhead and make everything irrelevant.

 

 -- Mike Wallace (5-116-0/8) goes to face his old teammates in Pittsburgh this week…with no Joe Haden to worry about. Wallace has 7 or more targets in three of his last 4 games. He has 2 TDs in his last 4 games. He’s a legit WR3 hopeful with upside on a big play this week.

 

 -- What about the Lions DST as a sleeper for Week 14? The Bucs are a decent matchup, no? The Lions are a top 10 fantasy DST for scoring, right? True, but…

*Jamal Agnew returning kicks and punts for scores is helping push that and Agnew has been out for weeks.

*The Lions defense is falling apart because they cannot stop the run as the big Jarrad Davis draft investment is coming back to haunt them…as I predicted. The Lions have allowed 30+ points the last two weeks and then 24 and 24 points versus the Bears-Browns before that.

The signs of a Lions DST collapse are real.

The Bucs are missing their 2 best OLs, and Jameis got sacked 7 times by the Packers last week…so that puts the Lions on the radar this week but their not my favorite play. Agnew returning kicks again helps me feel better.

 

 -- Ravens LB Patrick Onwuasor (7 tackles0 continues his hot IDP ways…8.0 tackles per game the past 4 weeks as he’s helping plug up the leaky run defense prior.

 

Snap Counts of Interest…

33 = Collins

20 = Woodhead

13 = Allen

 

40 = Riddick

21 = Green

04 = Zenner

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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