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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk14: Raiders v. Chiefs

December 12, 2017 7:57 PM
December 12, 2017 7:00 PM

This was potentially one of the worst played football games of 2017. Especially considering the context of the game…a three-way tie for first place in the AFC West, two of the teams facing off here. It was kind of a do-or-die game for both teams and they both played a weak football game.

Kansas City doing what it normally does…got a lead, tried to run everything through Kareem Hunt, suddenly the big lead eroded but KC held on. They should’ve won this game 40+ to zip. Their defense played one its best games of 2017 (or Oakland is horrible on offense…or both) and the KC offense was ‘OK’ but it still lacks that killer instinct. One radical game in…and the new play-caller chucked what worked last week and just became Andy Reid (or Reid took over the calls without really saying so).

Oakland…I don’t know where to begin. Facing a KC defense getting killed against the pass, PLUS then suspending their best CB (Peters) for the game…and yet Derek Carr could barely complete a pass for 3+ quarters. He looked atrocious. Considering the gift of an opportunity this was…how do they say – Carr shat the bed. Carr got a little forced-lucky late as KC played prevent to just watch the clock expire.

Neither of these teams deserves to be in the playoffs.

KC has won two of their last 6 games, and the two wins were games they played terribly but their opponent was worse. The Chiefs have secretly become one of the worst teams in football…and they have good personnel, so they’re secretly one of the worst coached/planned teams in the NFL. The Computer believes the Chiefs are going to get crushed by the Chargers this week…and not because the Chargers are hot, but because KC is soooo bad.

KC loses to LAC this week and they’re probably done for the playoffs. They have no quality wins for tie-breakers in the wild card and their AFC record is terrible among wild-card hopefuls. The season rests on beating LAC this week, which we don’t think they’ll do.

Oakland is horrible, and this loss is close to putting a dagger in them for the season. They are now 6-7 with games vs. DAL-PHI-LAC to go. They’d need a miracle to win out.


Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Let me rail on these two QBs…

The Raiders are #25 in passing yards allowed in the NFL and were missing their top cornerback, and with KC playing at home…Alex Smith (20-34 for 268 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) produced zero TD passes and threw a pick.

The Chiefs are #28 in passing yards allowed in the NFL and were missing their top CB due to a suspension. Given this very fertile ground…Derek Carr (26-41 for 211 yards, 1 TD/2 INT) couldn’t crack 100 yards passing through nearly three quarters.

Carr has thrown 2 INTs in a game four times in his last 10 games…13 TDs/10 INTs in that span. Colin Cowherd’s ‘next Aaron Rodgers’ comparisons might want to take a rain check. You sometimes see ‘falls from grace’ at QB when an O-Line falls apart but the Raiders are one of the least sacked teams in the league. Something is wrong with Carr, or the offense in general.

Alex Smith…I swear, one more time I see him wind up to throw it deep to Tyreek…and then pull it back and try to run and get sacked or throw it away – I’m going to lose my mind. And Smith is on the verge of losing his starting gig. If the Chiefs get whacked by the Chargers this week…I think Reid will pull the plug on Smith. He’ll have to. In fact, if LAC gets up by 21+ by halftime or early in the 3rd-quarter and KC can’t move the ball – I think Reid will make the change in-game this week. I think we’re that close to a change. If KC wins…Smith is safe, probably for the rest of the season.


 -- Kareem Hunt (25-116-1, 3-22-0/3) got a TD in the first time in forever…and you’d think Jesus’s second coming took place. NFL announcers/analysts are so vested into Hunt. The guy had a hot start and then flopped, but the NFL people are clinging to that early season run…when they pushed Hunt as a Rookie of the Year/MVP/Hall of Famer. Meanwhile, Jordan Howard toils away without mention or hysteria.

Hunt is good-not-great, and KC gets ridiculous trying to base everything around him. That’s why they’ve lost a bunch in a row…and will go from 5-0 to not in the playoffs because they are forcing a thing that isn’t working at a high level…but did in Weeks 1-2-3. It’s Week 15 already!! Let it go.


 -- Of course, I can’t talk about KC without mentioning Tyreek Hill (4-75-0/6). Two things…

1: Hill has been one of the best WRs in the NFL. I don’t mean because of his long TDs, but the number of catches he’s made in the clutch, in the middle of traffic, and then taking big hits after. He’s caught 75.8% of his targets this year and most of his work has come inside and on normal WR routes.

We all feared Hill couldn’t be a #1 WR…he’s actually taken to it ‘nicely’.

He’s a star. He’s special. He should be a megastar, but KC is holding him back.

2: Holding him back is easy for me to say because it’s so obvious on tape. No team is so stupid as the KC Chiefs on offense. If Andy Reid is an offensive genius…I’m frightened of the offensive minds considered worse than him.

In this game, and most games, the cornerback plays off Tyreek by 10+ yards…they do not want to get on the highlight reel staring at Hill’s ass as Tyreek cruises to the end zone and gives them the peace sign on a 50+ yard TD. Alex Smith could take one step and throw instantly to Hill and let him make a catch at the line of scrimmage, and then let the most dangerous man with the ball in his hands…have the ball in his hands with one DB to beat. Alex Smith almost NEVER does that. They just keep running Hill on routes because…‘playbook’.

Hill should have 2-3-4 catches a game on quick passes alone just to draw the CB up so that Hill could then burn them deep easier, but because Andy Reid hasn’t a clue…the DBs just play way back on Hill and then Hill is bottled up over the middle 95% of the season. Andy Reid has literally found a way to possess the league’s most dangerous player…and designed plays to take all the dangerous out of him. I pray the Chargers destroy the Chiefs and force a change at QB and head coach. KC needs change. What they have isn’t working.


 -- Jared Cook (5-75-1/6) came back from the dead with a big FF game, after several duds in a row. I don’t trust this offense or QB right now, so I’m a seller on Cook.


 -- No Marcus Peters, and facing a KC team getting smoked through the air…Michael Crabtree (7-60-0/13) really stepped up with a total ‘nothing’ of a game. When it mattered, when this game was still close, Crabtree could not separate or make anything happen. Crabtree is a #2 WR, not a #1. Now, that Amari Cooper is banged up/sucks…Crabtree is getting more attention and he can’t beat the coverage; even from CBs who aren’t real NFL starters like KC showed him this game.


Snap Counts of Interest…

55 = Seth Roberts

54 = Crabtree

27 = Cordarrelle Patterson


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>