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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk15: Chargers v. Chiefs

December 17, 2017 10:42 PM
December 18, 2017 6:00 AM

These two teams had reality strike them right in the face in Week 15…or they struck us (all of us) in the face with their reality. This Saturday night game was ‘reality’ at it’s finest. These teams were exactly who they are…

We re-learned… The Chiefs want to get any size lead and then run the ball every play…and when they don’t run it they soft toss it the running back. They will never change and it will cost them ahead but it doesn’t matter THEY WILL NEVER CHANGE as long as Andy Reid is there…and they won this crucial game and probably locked the division title up so more of the same coming.

We re-learned… Philip Rivers is the worst ‘good’ QB in the league. Why football people kiss Rivers’ ass and crap on Alex Smith, I have no idea. All Smith does is win, a lot, and all Rivers does is lose…leading losing seasons for years, a lot. When push came to shove, in a big spot, Rivers played a terrible game and cost his team the win/the division title…and Alex Smith with ‘benching for a rookie’ hanging over his head – he won the game. When will anyone start talking about Rivers getting benched? Why haven’t the Chargers drafted an heir apparent? The NFL follows the media, and the media hates Alex Smith and adores Philip Rivers…so, they NFL team’s acted accordingly.

This is a league that still uses a trade chart created 25+ years ago by Jimmy Johnson to tell it how to make trades. Why would you think any team exercises any independent thought?

Kansas City is not out of the woods yet for winning the division but is surely in the driver’s seat. They have Miami and at Denver the final two weeks. Miami lost their playoff hopes by losing to Buffalo so KC should roll this week. At Denver Week 17 is a gift versus Paxton Lynch, but ‘not so fast’ versus Brock Osweiler and if the Denver defense wants to play spoiler. One win is all KC needs and they should get that but KC has been losing/playing terrible for weeks and beat a poorly executed Chargers team this week…they are not world beaters, but they should win one of the next two.

The Chargers are still very much alive for the playoffs. If they win out they finish 9-7 and then have to see what tiebreakers come about. If the Chargers get into a wild-card tiebreaker with Buffalo…remember, the Nathan Peterman 5 INT nightmare against the Chargers? Sean McDermott deserves to lose a playoff spot on a tiebreaker because of that.  


Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I would like to use spot #1 to defend Tyrell Williams (3-31-0/7) for a moment.

You saw it if you watched this game…Philip Rivers (20-36 for 227 yards, 1 TD/3 INTs) throwing floaters into double and triple covered WRs, usually Tyrell, and then when the ball got picked off or didn’t connect – Rivers was flapping his arms, cursing inside his helmet…essentially blaming the WR.

Philip Rivers looks, to me, like the single worst player I’d ever want to play with in the NFL. All he does is gyrate his arms and complain about everyone else. I’ve never seen that guy take blame in the moment. I’ve never seen him with any true leadership on the sidelines. All I see his him flapping his arms in outrage at WRs, coaches, and referees.

Philip Rivers is a good NFL QB, but he’s also a choke artist. How many times have we said in the last decade, “The Chargers have such a  good team on paper but they always underachieve!” Yeah, guess who the QB was that entire time? Guess how many playoff wins Rivers has in the past 9 seasons? One. His record since 2010: 58-68 (.461).

If Cam Newton flaps his arms and jaws at his WRs or coaches…it’s a week-long debate point on talk radio and football TV shows, how immature Cam is. Philip Rivers does it ALL THE TIME FOR YEARS and they all go “Fiery competitor.”

Jay Cutler constantly loses with a sourpuss and it’s become a thing we use to mock him. Philip Rivers constantly loses flapping his arms and blaming teammates on the field, mid-game and not a peep from the media. That’s the NFL for you…sanitized for your protection. Winners and losers picked at random based on things that don’t really matter. They hate Alex Smith, they love Philip Rivers…and there is no logic to either whatsoever.

Just once, I’d like to see an NFL commentator go after Rivers on air, mid-game when he’s doing this crap.

But because this is accepted thinking in the NFL…Rivers is fine and Tyrell Williams is the problem. Now, it’s going to taint Williams’ career for the time being until he can escape L.A.

Tyrell is dead with the Chargers as long as Anthony Lynn and Philip Rivers…and KEENAN ALLEN exists. Allen gets all the targets week-in-and-out. However, if Allen is done for the 2017 season (he was carted off Saturday but didn’t seem doomed)…Tyrell matters again for a week or two because the Chargers will be desperate at WR.


 -- That Tyreek Hill 64-yard TD (5-88-1/6)…that type of throw is available to Smith 10+ times a guy but he’s too much of a puss to throw it. The next level of fantasy with Hill is going to be Patrick Mahomes in 2018.

Depending on how the dust settles, Hill will move into the top 10 for PPR PPG scoring YTD after this week. Still with a chance to get inside the top 7 by the end of the week. I thought he’d fight for top 3 WR overall before the season started, but it looks like we got top 10 anyway.

Hill will be #3 in nonPPR PPG after this week, it looks like, by a hair. Definitely in the top 5 nonPPR for sure for this season.


 -- I don’t see Kareem Hunt (24-155-1, 7-51-9/9) doing anything different than the last several weeks when he was ‘meh’…but LAC lost its big run stopper (Denzel Perryman) early in this game, and they’ve sucked against the run all season.

It doesn’t matter how he looks because Andy Reid is ‘all in’ on Hunt. He’s an RB1 threat every week on anticipated workload…not opponent or talent-level.


 -- I think Alex Smith (23-30 for 231 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs) would have been benched had he lost this game and was so-so or worse in the loss. He played well enough to win…or just better than Philip Rivers. Smith will be the QB through the Chiefs first-round playoff loss and then it’s Patrick Mahomes time in 2018.


 -- Next week the Chargers DST faces Bryce Petty/NYJ. It’s a must win for LAC for the playoffs. It should be a solid play for the week but something like Steelers DST v. T.J. Yates might be better. LAC going to cold New York next week to face Petty.

Two other LAC defensive/IDP notes…

When Denzel Perryman went down Jatavis Brown (8 tackles) came in and does what does – produce IDP numbers. He also got banged up so we’ll see how he does. I believe Perryman may be done for the year…so Jatavis could be an LB1 immediately, or Korey Toomer matters for a week if both Jatavis and Denzel are down.

One of our favorite rookies/IDP dynasty stashes, Desmond King (6 tackles), had another nice game. He is really coming on. A top 20-25 DB the next two weeks potentially in IDP.



Snap Counts of Interest…

34 = Ragland

16 = Kevin Pierre-Louis

12 = Tanoh Kpassagnon


38 = H Henry

22 = Gates


33 = Jatavis

23 = Perryman


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>