Game Lines

ffm logo

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

Get the app

Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk15: Rams v. Seahawks

Date:
December 21, 2017 6:56 PM
December 21, 2017 6:30 PM

This was a beating of a lifetime by the Rams…utter domination. The Rams are on to bigger things so this game will probably be forgotten soon…but it shouldn’t. This was the game that the Rams stuck a dagger into the heart of the Seahawks and killed them off once and for all. Seattle, the team as we know it, is no more. They’ve been exposed. Russell Wilson and a once great defense can no longer cover up for a poor coaching staff from the top down.

I’ve been harping on this for almost two years now, and this game is my ‘pop the Champagne’ (but I don’t drink) moment. Seattle has stalled/died…is dying…and now we are starting to hear all about how deep the Seattle issues in the locker room are per media reports. I’ve been saying there was a massive problem for two years -- and people would email me from time to time defending Seattle/their culture as just ‘their way’ or ‘that’s how they get fired up’. I wasn’t assuming something on this…I had multiple inside sources who I trusted telling me similar tales of woe behind the scenes in Seattle.

It will be interesting to see what approach Seattle takes towards cleaning things up. I suspect they’ll move a deck chair or two around the Titanic, and that won’t do much and they’ll need to really crash and burn for another year or two more to be prompted to do the hard work of admitting the problem and fully cleaning it up. Seattle should be a Super Bowl contender every year with Russell Wilson…they have lost their way.

If I were put in charge of the Seahawks, I would fire Pete Carroll. Not because he’s done a bad job/just this one bad year – I do it because he would create this problem again if I gave him a new roster. He also won’t get rid of the O-C Darrell Bevell…and Bevell would be my first move. Bevell goes…and if Carroll told me ‘if he goes, I go’, I’d be on the phone with Cleveland trying to trade them Petey boy.

My next act, after wiping out the current coaching staff, would be to deal every wannabe gangster and two-bit social justice warrior on the team. They brought strife through politics into my organization and it became a cancer that divided and conquered the team…they’re all gone, all the ones that created strife. I think I could flip the Seattle roster some this offseason and rebuild around Russell and be right back on top of the NFC West the upcoming season…no long, drawn out rebuild.

It won’t happen that way. The Seahawks will make an ‘injuries’ excuse and kick the can another 1-2 years. Because they have the magician Russell Wilson, they’ll always be 8-8 +/- a game or two…so, they’ll never crash so hard it’s obvious what to do. So, they’ll delude themselves into minor changes and more of the same will occur. They need to be hit over the head with a mallet…and this game was that, but I don’t think they realize it yet.

In this must-win game for Seattle, against young upstarts and a rookie head coach, playing AT Seattle/with the ’12th man’…the Seahawks weren’t just beat, they were humiliated. It was a total beat down. This should signal a broken thing that needs fixing by Seattle…but it won’t. Not yet.

The Rams all but locked up the NFC West title and are now playing for seeding. The Rams will likely win out versus Tennessee and San Fran but they’ll never jump up to a #1-2 seed so they’re just trying to finish #3 instead of #4. I’m guessing they’ll grab the #3 seed and face #6 seed Atlanta (or maybe Dallas) in the 1st-round.

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- It sounds empty to say it…sounds like I’m late to a party or trying to jump on a departed train, but I really mean this and I know I’m right (or I hope I’m right…or my mind is going) – I’ve not seen Todd Gurley (21-152-3, 3-28-0/3) look this good ever in the NFL as he has the last two weeks. He looks like the great Georgia Bulldogs version Gurley. The guy has gone from uninspired, non-elusive runs between the tackles for lower yards per carry for 2+ years to the last two weeks of 7.0+ yards per tote and an obvious spring in his step. It’s like something got unlocked.

I mentioned it last week and more of the same this week. I’ve scouted enough Todd Gurley to know…something has changed. Maybe his knee loosened up or he lost weight. I don’t know what but it’s taking him from average power RB to top 3 elite RB in the NFL type activity.

As if the Rams weren’t good enough…it’s like they’ve been given a brand-new elite weapon to work with now.

I’d say, ‘…or maybe I’ve just missed it’, but I can see it clearly. The numbers in games back me up. It’s the best running Gurley had back-to-back and doing so against top of the line run defenses. It’s like the Rams got a whole new, fresh player/weapon.

 

 -- Mike Davis (6-19-0, 2-20-0/2), on the other hand, is not putting up Gurley-like numbers.

Before you damn him to hell…just note there is an excuse. I gotta million of ‘em. Seriously, Davis is the victim of bad circumstances beyond his control. He had just got going two weeks ago and then got knocked out of the game with a rib injury…or he was on his way to a 100+ yard statement game. Here, in this one, the game was over before it started…Seattle abandoned the run trying to stop the hemorrhaging and Davis barely touched the ball the 2nd-half. No one on Seattle could do anything with the ball…don’t put it all on Davis.

I’m sticking by Davis. I know what I’ve seen. I know he’s ‘the man’ for Seattle. Must win this week at Dallas…not a good matchup but Davis can take on a tough matchup if they get him the ball/the game supports Seattle running like normal.

 

 -- Robert Woods (6-45-1/7) missed a couple games with a shoulder injury, walked right back in and was Jared Goff’s main target again. Case closed, Woods is a WR1.5 for now and 2018…he’s Goff’s guy.

 

 -- Another case on trial that no one really believes…I think Russell Wilson is purposefully moving away from Doug Baldwin (1-6-0/4) -- and to some degree, Baldwin is ‘checked out’. Paul Richardson (2-118-0/7) out-targeted Baldwin, again.

Richardson has now had more targets in a game than Baldwin in four of Seattle’s last 5 games. Part of the locker room strife might be Baldwin (and there’s reason to believe that), and Wilson is moving away when he can. I’ve been a huge Baldwin support on the target trends and output…undervalued for two years. I’m seeing a turn away just like I felt the ‘turn towards’ prior.

It might be time to bail, but the price has never been high on Baldwin and it has further sunk from normal…you have no willing buyers. You’re more stuck with Baldwin hoping for a ‘turn’ or trade away from Seattle.

 

 -- Speaking of wide receivers…has any more hyped/talented WR even been traded to a land of passing game opportunity and did nothing with it like Sammy Watkins (2-14-0/5)?

 

 -- Note something on a Seattle IDP… The odd NFL journey of Dion Jordan (7 tackles, 1.0 sacks).

He just came back from injury and had a 7 tackles game and a sack…in just 19 snaps! He’s played three games for Seattle so far. His debut was a few snaps and he got a sack. He followed that with a 4 tackle, 1 TFL game. Then missed several games and returned here for 7 tackles and a sack. Something good is trying to peak out here…from all his career chaos.

Maybe.

 

 -- That was quite a performance by the LA Rams DST. They destroyed Russell Wilson and friends, humiliated them.

When the Rams have faced weak offenses this year—they’ve crushed them. They’ve held nine of their last 10 opponents to 20 or fewer points. Only Carson Wentz showed them up in that span.

If the Rams defense is starting to ‘get it’, then it should be a great day against sad-sack Tennessee and then we’ll see about Week 17 versus ‘The Franchise’. The 49ers may go C.J. Beathard Week 17 and make the Rams DST a golden pick for the finale.

If the Rams defense is emerging, and Todd Gurley has found another gear…this may be the best team in the NFL. If only they had not just lost Greg Zuerlein.

In other news, ex-Rams HC Jeff Fisher would like to coach again. The audacity…

 

Snap Counts of Interest…

35 = McKissic

19 = Mk Davis

 

19 = Dion Jordan (and 7 tackles, wow)

 

49 = Higbee

15 = Carrier

06 = G Everett

Tags:

About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>