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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk3: Chiefs v. Chargers

Date:
September 28, 2017 5:44 PM
September 28, 2017 5:40 PM

Typical LA Chargers game…somehow LAC hangs around for a while and then collapses at the end. Our own Jason Katz labeled it #Chargersthings before the season even began.

This game was 17-10 KC late into the 4th quarter…despite Philip Rivers giving out turnovers like trick or treat candies. Stacking the line to stop KC from running the clock, Kareem Hunt got past the first level and saw nothing but green grass…a 69-yard TD run to put it out of reach, essentially.

The Chargers are 0-3 but close to 3-0/2-1…close in that they were lingering but aren’t good enough to really close any deal. Philip Rivers continues to destroy this LAC team with a passing arrogance not even rivaled by Ben Roethlisberger. Rivers constantly throws ill-advised passes. In his last 10 games, Rivers has a 1-9 record with 20 TDs/18 INTs and a 59.2% Comp. Pct.

Why is it the media destroys Dalton-Eli-Cam when they tail off, and shouts 'it's over!'…but then makes excuse after excuse for Philip Rivers – for years? Oh, if only he had Mike Williams. Oh, good god.

Kansas City struggled the first half with the Patriots, who aren't as good as everyone thought. They struggled for almost three quarters with Philly Week 2. They let the Chargers hang in this game until late, despite Rivers giving them gifts all game. The Chiefs are not world beaters…they're just very good.

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The first pass of this game – Tyrell Williams (2-15-0/7) broke wide open down the sidelines. All Rivers needed to do was put in on his hands and Tyrell would have begun the day with an 87-yard TD…and the Chargers would have set the tone. Rivers threw it about a yard too far and Williams dove for it and could get it anyway. you’d think about Williams differently today had he had an 87-yard score added to his fantasy day.

Later in the game, Rivers had him in the end zone and couldn’t connect. I say this to mention -- Williams is not dead. He's not a confident start but he is not 'nothing'.

I say that, but then I look at his schedule -- and I realize it's about time to give up for 2017/redraft.

You can use him v. PHI Week 4 and OAK Week 6 if you need to – and then depart.

Week 7 – Denver

Week 8 – Patriots

Week 9 – BYE

Week 10 – Jags

Week 11 – Bills

Week 12 – Dallas

Those are not good matchups at all, especially if Dallas improves as the season goes on and gets healthy with DBs.

After Week 6 Tyrell is dead. If you don’t see starting him this week…I don’t know why you’d burn a spot with him. Take a gamble on something else.

 

 -- Kareem Hunt (17-172-1, 1-11-0/1) is the Ezekiel Elliott/2016 of 2017. Hunt is a solid runner but the Chiefs are blowing holes wide open for him. I re-watched this game and was concentrating on Hunt and it's amazing how good the Chiefs O-Line is so far this season. Not taking anything away from Hunt, per se, but wow is KC grinding in the trenches.  

Hunt has two types of runs – (1) No hole and he hesitates and tends to get trapped near the line. (2) Nice hole and a head of steam and he's like a runaway freight train. You can't tackle the guy with a head of steam. He's shedding tacklers like they are not there…if he's going full speed. When he is stationary, he doesn’t have the legwork to burst from a standstill for much.

Hunt's going to have a fine year if the Chiefs O-Line stays intact.

Hunt has 401 rushing yards this season…180 yards of them on three carries. One long pop in each one of his three games played this season.

Hunt's not a bust-in-waiting, not at all. He's just on an excellent run that I think is an outlier of performance. He's going to have a fine season and be a top fantasy RB but over time I think he settles in as a fringe RB1/RB2.

 

 -- The more Hunt blows through the middle…the better things will be for Tyreek Hill (3-13-0, 5-77-1/6), you'd think. Teams are focusing on Hill so much it's giving Hunt less fronts/less congestion to run through.

Honestly, I'm disappointed with Tyreek's 2017 so far. He's not being used much more than he was last year. I thought there would be a bigger step taken…maybe, it's to come. Hunt being a focus for the defense can help.

Hill had a 70+ yard TD easy in this game, flying down the sideline on a pass pattern and 2-5 yards ahead of the coverage and Alex Smith threw it too far and out of bounds. Every week, Smith misses a 50+ yard TD to Hill. We should be further ahead with Tyreek.

I say it's disappointing…but Hill is #3 among WRs in PPR PPG YTD.

Check out the names in the top 12 in the year of our Lord 2017…

#1 Stefon Diggs, #3 Tyreek, #6 Brandin Cooks, #9 Adam Thielen, #10 Doug Baldwin, #12 Chris Hogan. Many FFM names we bought low on years ago, and sold some over the years. Five of the six are 5th round+ draft or UDFA guys.

I know what I'm doing with this football scouting stuff…

 

 -- Melvin Gordon (17-79-1, 0-0-0/2) has an odd pattern going…quick starts and then total disasters the majority of the game. Example here – Gordon's first three carries were for 38 yards, all 10+ yard runs. He then had 41 yards rushing on 14 carries after (2.9 ypc) the rest of the game. I see this pattern every week.

I think Gordon looks as good as he ever has, and note I think he's wildly overrated/shouldn’t be a starter for a team. Somehow he's breaking down as the game goes on…or Anthony Lynn is easy to figure out. Or both.

Gordon is averaging 3.3 yards per carry this season.

Unreal.

Typical.

 

 -- Alex Smith has thrown for 7 TDs and no picks this season…and yet he's mocked while Philip Rivers is a fiery competitor that the Chargers haven't done right by.

You can't make this stuff up with the media. THEY make up things in their head, having nothing to do with results and they run with it as group-reality.

Remember how I wrote that Rivers is 1-9 in this last 10 games with 18 INTs?

Smith is 8-2 in his last 10 regular season games. And he has just 15 INTs since 2015/the last 2+ seasons.

 

 -- Speaking of late round picks who are great and how I was right miles ahead of all of football -- Jatavis Brown (10 tackles) continues to lead the NFL in tackles through three games.

It's not just about tackles, but how good Brown is – when Tyreek was getting handoffs and waterbugging through traffic there was only one other athlete moving as fast to contain him…Jatavis.

The media never utters Jatavis's name, but Joey Bosa (6 tackles, 0.5 sacks) is mentioned a minimum of 20x a game by announcers.

 

 -- Another defender we've touted for years is finally getting his time to shine…and no one in the media has been aware of him either. Daniel Sorensen (8 tackles, 0.5 TFLs, 1 INT) should be a Pro Bowl player, a highly paid safety, but instead has been a backup/special teamer for years. This might be his year to get the accolades outside of Kansas City fans who knew full well.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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