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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk3: Dolphins v. Jets

Date:
September 29, 2017 10:46 AM
September 29, 2017 10:45 AM

I think everyone was mildly shocked that the Jets beat the Dolphins…and even more so that the score indicated a pretty healthy defeat. It was 20-0 for the longest time and then ended 20-6 on a TD at the buzzer for MIA. But because no one outside of Miami cares about the Dolphins, and literally no one cares about the Jets except that one fireman guy…well, this game kinda drifted past Week 3 with a shoulder shrug.

Here's the short version of what happened if you missed it – the Jets, who aren't very good, totally kicked the ass of Miami. It was no fluke or weird turnovers – it was one team beating the other senseless. This may have been the worst performance by any team in a game this season – the Miami Dolphins Week 3 v. the Jets. What an atrocious team.

The Jets? They did what they had to do. They played a smart, sound game…relatively speaking. I don’t think this is the start of anything for them…just the trumpet blast that the Dolphins are done already.

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I may not know what I am talking about but I'm going to say it and do with it what you wish…

Something is not right with Jay Ajayi (11-16-0, 2-9-0/3). I don’t know if it is temporary or if that knee issue is flaring up bigger than he would let on. Something is wrong. With the way he runs – it is a ticking time bomb on him getting hurt and out for weeks.

In this game, he took an early carry to the left side and I saw his knee kinda buckled/slid as he went to make a cut. He came up limping. He looked like he might have pulled his groin. Wasn't sure. However, he wouldn’t come out of the game. And because Adam Gase has gone all-in on Ajayi with no real backup plan…he kept him in and you could see Ajayi had lost a step+. You can see by the box score something is wrong – that's the line you put up against the Jets, really? 16 yards on 11 carries.

Damien Williams (2-50, 1-6-0/1) would be the de facto 'handcuff' and he's not bad at all. He'd work in a pinch. Likely, they'd push a Williams-Drake split…which Williams would more than likely 'win'.

If I owned Ajayi in any format – I would be heading for the hills on a reasonable offer. This team is going down the drain and Ajayi is an injury waiting to happen. I would not be shocked if Ajayi was a surprise inactive Sunday…or hurt/pulls something early and sits out the rest of the game.

Just a hunch.

 

 -- Running back issues on the other side of this game as well – the retired Matt Forte (he just hasn't told anyone yet, and is collecting a final fat paycheck) has turf toe. All eyes turn towards Bilal Powell (15-37-1) or do they? Powell is averaging 2.6 yards per carry this season and caught 5 passes opening week…and then zero and zero catches the past two weeks. The only reason Powell mattered for FF, supposedly, was his PPR prowess/accumulation. He's not been getting that accumulation. Something is wrong with Powell and the coaches/QB.

I think the coaches secretly like rookie Elijah McGuire (7-34-0). I'm not a fan, per se, but I have eyes…I see that he looks better/quicker than Powell. Had McGuire not fumbled late in this game...he might have gotten a more serious look at splitting touches Week 4 without Forte. It may happen, regardless.

Powell will get the bulk of the work versus Jacksonville, in part for the experience blocking the Jags pass rush. The matchup and situation might be a nice one for Powell to get 5-8 catches out of the backfield since there will be no throwing downfield.

If the Jets get thumped by the Jags and Forte is not back Week 5…then an Elijah McGuire watch would be on. McGuire is OK. A 'C' talent giving it his all.

I thought Powell was beloved by the coaches but he has been snubbed pretty much all season, taking a backseat to Forte right away and then taking a backseat to McGuire Week 2. Powell is not the bright light I thought he might be this year…I thought he'd be the 'OK' talent that gets a lot of touches out of necessity. If that narrative is true – it will happen this week vs. Jacksonville. If Powell flops…he may be done for fantasy 2017.

 

 -- Austin Seferian-Jenkins (5-31-0/6) didn’t look too out of shape in his debut. He looked normal. He looked fine. He made some tough catches and played a decent game. He's a safety blanket for Josh McCown and they have a relationship back to Tampa Bay. He's likely going to be a TE1 for fantasy with McCown…because somebody has to be a TE1 in the NFL…at least 11 other guys after Gronk.

 

 -- It won't be long before the world agrees with me on DeVante Parker (8-76-1/10). It won't be long before I declare victory in the great RC v. DeVante Twitter war of preseason 2017. This guy is such a joke of a 'top' WR. He got handled by a backup CB for the Chargers in Week 2, and then was squashed by the Jets CBs in this game. I think Parker caught 6-7 of his 8 passes for 95% of his yards in the final six minutes of this blowout…once the defensive pressure was off.

Don’t make me tell you to trade him before the bottom falls out, again. I know you don’t believe me because everyone on the planet really believes in this guy. You'll see. You'll pay for not believing.

You can trade him as a WR1.5 in some situations.

He's not a bust. He's just a WR2-3 based on matchups, but more a WR3-4 than anyone wants to admit. I think Adam Gase is getting fed up with him too. Watch for the subtle motivations of Parker to begin, showing the coach's frustration. Watch for Parker to get called out by Gase publicly within the next three weeks.

 

 -- Robby Anderson (3-95-1/6) showed the first spark of connection with McCown in this game. I'm not too excited yet. It was 'Miami' and he has the Jags this week. His schedule from Week 7 on is not good. Anderson in a pinch based on the matchup as a Flex, but I don’t see more than that happening this season.

 

 -- I have more hope for little-used Jakeem Grant (1-12-0/1) than I do Robby Anderson right now. The more Miami sinks, the more likely Adam Gase starts playing the players that deserve it – like Grant. Anderson is a good WR but will be working with Christian Hackenberg into a tough schedule soon. Grant defies matchup because you can use him like Tyreek Hill.

Deep roster leagues. You gotta sit on Grant as an investment if you have room.

 

 -- Good for CB Darryl Roberts (7 tackles, 1 PD)! One of our top CBs in the draft a few years ago, a 7th round pick later cut by the Pats -- he's finally starting to get his feet under him as a starter for the Jets. He played a very good game here.

 

 -- Something to watch in an upcoming Jets game…

I watched an early red zone play where a #97 entered the backfield for NYJ. A monster among men…DE Lawrence Thomas, came in as a fullback. He blocked on one play, but then he got a slip screen and almost killed a man trying to tackle him as he raced to the end zone. He nearly scored. He played 14 offensive snaps. He has good hands for his size – he's like a massive TE, 6'4",280+. He blocks and hits like a mother too.

It's a smart wrinkle the Jets have added to the arsenal.

 

Snap Counts of Interest…

28 = Powell

23 = Forte

12 = McGuire

 

48 = Seferian-Jenkins (76%)

 

63 = CB Buster Skrine

60 = CB Darryl Roberts

53 = CB Mo Claiborne

 

33 = Ajayi

20 = Drake

10 = D. Williams

03 = Jakeem Grant

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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