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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk3: Rams v. 49ers

Date:
September 23, 2017 12:08 AM
September 23, 2017 2:30 AM

The Rams won this game 41-39, holding on through several scares at the end. The game felt like it was 41-20…a Rams blowout. How the 49ers stayed in this game and almost won it was a miracle.

The 49ers fell to 0-3 and are on their way to a top 5 draft pick. The Rams improved to 2-1 and had a win in their Week 2 loss to Washington in hands but they blew it. The 2-1 Rams will challenge Seattle to the finish for the NFC West title all year. A 3-0 Rams team today would have likely won the NFC South. Every game matters.

This was the national 'arrival' game for Sean McVay and Jared Goff. The media now loves McVay and begrudgingly admits Goff isn’t so bad.

Hey, mainstream…welcome to the party!

Welcome to a party we wrote about months ago about McVay as ahead of his time and might be a top 3 NFL coach with a year or two. He may be there now.

It also validates what we saw, at College Football Metrics.com pre-Draft, with Goff in our scouting pre-draft. It also validates what I saw in last week's game. What I thought was a dud on Sunday because of his game-ending INT, the re-watch revealed his best game of his career…until this game.

This also shows another thing we were right on – Jeff Fisher was a complete and total disaster. We were blasting him a year or two before it became chic to do so. Everyone eventually realized what a screw-up Fisher was as a coach and how harmful he was to quarterbacks. So, now everyone is in love with Goff. You know who else was a really good QB before the Rams but died when joined with Jeff Fisher? Nick Foles. If the NFL had any sense they wouldn’t have discarded Foles for the likes of Josh McCown or Blake Bortles types as current starters. The Jags could have made the playoffs this year if they did the Jeff Fisher-Nick Foles math and grabbed Foles in free agency. Ditto Buffalo.

Player's lives are ruined by awful, dreadful coaching (from most NFL coaches, not all) and spinless, vacant personnel management. I hope Sean McVay wins the damn Super Bowl this year and sticks it all up their asses. I know the NFL, and that screw-ups will be screw-ups…and they do one thing at all times – protect their con job of making people believe they know what they're doing. Because of this game, and the realization it delivered, two things will happen with the NFL establishment…

1) Sean McVay must be torn down. A 30-year old cannot come in and run circles around football lifers in the coaching community. That's not the way it is supposed to be done. Sure, the next few weeks it will be cute stories but eventually they are going to undermine him at every turn when they can. Sean McVay must not succeed or all the Mike Zimmer's and Mike Shanahan's of the world…and their coaching trees…won’t be perpetually rehired.

2) Jeff Fisher will land an executive job with the NFL offices because he's done such a fine job of ruining teams and players, I mean…because he was such a great coach in the NFL.

Failure will be celebrated.

Success will be torn down.

The NFL is success adverse for some odd reason…if it went against THEIR way things were supposed to go. McVay cannot be better than Fisher. The media will try to divide McVay's locker room, question his logic…and Jeff Fisher will undermine him from the NFL offices, if hired there, if he can to preserve/enhance his own legacy – I think Jeff Fisher is that kind of political a-hole to do just a thing.

Stay Strong, Sean! Watch your back!!

Other than that, I had no other strong feelings about this game. It was really entertaining!

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Oh, dear Lord here comes the Todd Gurley (28-113-2, 5-36-1/7) is the greatest RB in the NFL talk again. The Rams landed a yard short of the goal line a few times and Gurley got called on to take a plunge for the score. I think he rushed successfully for two short TDs and was stuffed about 13 times in other attempts.

Gurley should have scored 5-6 TDs in this game, seriously.

He even screws up his great fantasy performances.

At the very end of the game, Gurley got loose for a 29-yard run. The 27 carries he had before that – 84 yards rushing…3.1 yards per carry. Typical.

I'm not anti-Gurley, per se. I just think he's not the guy he's being trumpeted as. He looks mediocre-to-bad on most of his runs, and has for his last 20+ games in the NFL. He's becoming Melvin Gordon – terrible yards per carry, low rushing output, but gets the goal line touches and several targets to stay relevant.

Gurley touched the ball 33 times and only got 149 yards total…against the lowly 49ers. Minus the charity run at the end…it was 32 touches for 123 yards. This is a star performance? It's good…not 'wow'.

We're celebrating things most every NFL RB could do if pumped the touches.

For fantasy, it's great and Gurley is an RB1 all day long. I had a top 20 valuation on him entering the season. I knew he would have the touch count and he's a pretty good talent and a really good receiver. However, people thinking he had some great night on TNF because he scored three short TDs and 100+ rushing…you're taking it totally out of context of judging him as special or not.

I know this is the media's doing. You know why? They announce team lost their minds about Gurley's performance all night last night and all day today (Friday). He's all the talk from the game..to somewhat not give Goff his full credit. Gurley was pronounced the star from this game…and people debating if he was the best RB in the NFL.

Ummm…did anyone notice Carlos Hyde (25-84-2, 3-10-0/4) is twice the talent Gurley is? The guy who played in the same exact game. You couldn’t watch these two at work and not come away thinking Hyde was not the better talent. The media says 100% to 0% that isn't true. Playing with an inferior QB, line, and with an injured hip missing a chunk of the game – Hyde put the team on his back versus a pretty solid defense and nearly willed his team to a victory.

Gurley was a guy that got in on the fun created by Jared Goff…and then failed/got stuffed most of the second half at scoring anymore.

By contrast -- Hyde was a guy that carried his team with headwinds battling him.

Who's better for fantasy ahead 2017? Probably Gurley. Better offense and defense to work with and all the media behind him to push the coaches.

Remember, when the beat writers were saying Hyde was a backup/going to be traded…and Joe Williams was going to start?

I do.

That same media is pushing Gurley, who I like too, don’t get me wrong…but THEY LOOOOVVVEEEE him. Hyde, they don’t give a second's mention as a great NFL RB.

I like Gurley, I just don’t see this god they've created. I see all the weak results for 20+ games and wonder why we still canonize him. BUT HE SCORED 3 TDs IN A GAME THIS WEEK!

Great.

The Rams won’t be facing the league's worst run defenses anymore, not three-in-a-row like Weeks 1-3. Now things get tougher. Let's see what happens.

 

 -- Jared Goff (22-28 for 292 yards, 3 TD/0 INT) has blown past 'gaining acceptance' and right into relevant discussion for QB1 status in fantasy. He's only going to get better from here.

Tacking on this performance, there aren’t many QBs playing the position better. He gets better every week. Trevor Siemian is playing great as well, and I said Siemian was a better prospect than Goff this past week. I'm walking that back all of a sudden. Goff is coming on like a hail storm. Siemain is right there with him. Both guys are pushing ahead of the old guard for fantasy…better than Dalton, Eli, Palmer, etc. You want fringe QB1 talents/producers with upside? Siemian and Goff have arrived…while Dalton, Eli, Palmer, Wilson, Rivers fading behind them.

Also, the media will chase Carson Wentz and Jameis Winston as the young stars of the future…gimme Goff and Siemian.

 

 -- Sammy Watkins (6-106-2/7) was a ghost for the early part of this game and then caught fire. It’s a good time to make a deal hot, trading him away.

Nothing against Sammy, but Goff is a guy who spreads it around to open receivers…not old-school forcing it to the same receiver like a Jay Cutler, Big Ben, or Philip Rivers does.

Watkins was not being sought out special by Goff at all. He was used as needed, as open. Robert Woods (6-108-0/7) was being more sought out early on.

Watkins will trade as a WR1.5 this week. I think he might be more WR 2.5 for the ROS. Tougher, much tougher opponents ahead.

 

 -- Pierre Garcon (7-142-0/10) was the best WR in this game. Again, lesser QB, and faced better coverage…and he was a monster. I've always been a fan, and now we see him getting #1 WR treatment. Good for him. Long overdue.

 

 -- Aldrick Robinson (2-23-0/4) got a shot at more starter type work and failed. He had a couple key drops that couldn’t be forgotten over his one great catch. Robinson is not taking a step to another level it appears.

 

 -- Raheem Mostert (4-11-0) got a shot at more work and looked tentative. The star of the preseason looked totally different in his regular season touch debut for SF.

 

 -- I know this was a crazy game but it doesn’t look like the Rams DST is ready for prime time. 39 points allowed to the 49ers? 27 allowed to the Redskins? Dallas next week before the schedule turns back favorable for them with SEA-JAC-ARI-NYG-HOU-MIN. If you’re into the Rams in a deeper dynasty. I’d hold them and not start them Week 4, but get ready for the Week 5+ run.

Snap Counts of Interest...

61 = Hyde

16 = Breida

08 = Mostert

62 = Woods

44 = Watkins

40 = Kupp

61 = Higbee

24 = Carrier

11 = Everett

68 = Aaron Donald (83%)

38 = Solomon Thomas (57%)

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>