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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk3: Rams v. 49ers

Date:
September 27, 2017 10:25 PM
September 27, 2017 10:11 PM

**Sorry, this was supposed to post Friday but I don;t think it did. The TNF recap is always planned for Friday, Saturday at the latest. Knock me in the head of not posted.

The Rams won this game 41–39, holding on through several scares at the end. It felt like it was 41–20…a Rams blowout. How the 49ers stayed in this game and almost won it was a miracle.

The 49ers fell to 0–3 and are on their way to a top 5 draft pick. The Rams improved to 2–1, and had their Week 2 game vs. Washington in their hands but they blew it. The 2–1 Rams will challenge Seattle to the finish for the NFC West title. A 3–0 Rams team today would have likely won the NFC South. Every game matters.

This was the 'arrival' game for Sean McVay and Jared Goff. The media now loves McVay and begrudgingly admits Goff isn’t so bad.

Hey, mainstream…welcome!

Welcome to a party we wrote about months ago about McVay being ahead of his time and maybe a top 3 NFL coach with a year or two. He may be there now.

It also validates what we saw with Goff in our scouting pre-draft. It also validates what I saw in last week's game. What I thought was a dud on Sunday because of his game-ending INT, the re-watch revealed his best game of his career…until this game.

This also shows another thing we were right on – Jeff Fisher was a complete and total disaster. We were blasting him a year or two before it became chic to do. Everyone realized what a screw-up Fisher was as a coach and how harmful he was to quarterbacks. So, now everyone is in love with Goff. You know who else was great before the Rams and died with Jeff Fisher? Nick Foles. If the NFL had any sense they wouldn’t have discarded Foles for the likes of Josh McCown or Blake Bortles types as current starters. The Jags could have made the playoffs this year if they did the Jeff Fisher-Nick Foles math. Ditto Buffalo.

Player's lives are ruined by awful, dreadful coaching and spineless, vacant personnel management. I hope Sean McVay wins the damn Super Bowl this year and sticks it all up their asses. I know the NFL, and that screw-ups will be screw-ups and they do one thing at all times – protect their con job of making people believe they know what they're doing. Because of this game, and the realization it delivered, two things will happen now by the NFL establishment…

1) Sean McVay must be torn down. A 30-year old cannot come in and run circles around football lifers. That's not the way it is done. Sure, the next few weeks it will be cute stories, but they are going to undermine him at every turn when they can. Sean McVay must not succeed or all the Mike Zimmers and Mike Shanahans of the world won’t be perpetually rehired.

2) Jeff Fisher will land an executive job with the NFL offices because he's done such a fine job of ruining teams and players, I mean…because he was such a great coach in the NFL.

Failure will be celebrated.

Success will be torn down.

The NFL is success-adverse except where preordained by the intelligentsia. McVay cannot be better than Fisher. The media will try to divide his locker room, question his logic…and Jeff Fisher will undermine him if he can to preserve his own legacy – I think Jeff Fisher is that kind of political asshole to do just a thing.

Stay Strong Sean! Watch your back!!

Other than that, I had no other strong feelings about this game. It was really entertaining!

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- Oh, dear Lord here comes the Todd Gurley is the greatest RB in the NFL talk again. The Rams landed a yard short of the goal line a few times and Gurley got called on to plunge for the score. I think he rushed for two short TDs and was stuffed about 13 times in other attempts.

Gurley should have scored 5–6 TDs in this game.

He even screws up his great fantasy performances.

At the very end, Gurley got free for a 29-yard run. The 27 carries he had before that – 84 yards rushing…3.1 yards per carry. Yeah!

I'm not anti-Gurley, per se. I just think he's not the guy he's being trumpeted as. He looks mediocre to bad on most of his runs, and has for his last 20+ games in the NFL. He's becoming Melvin Gordon – terrible yards per carry, low rushing output, but gets the goal line touches and several targets to stay relevant.

Gurley touched the ball 33 times and only got 149 yards total…against the lowly 49ers. Minus the charity run at the end…it was 32 touches for 123 yards. This is a star?

We're celebrating things most every NFL RB could do if pumped the touches.

For fantasy, it's great, and he's an RB1 all day long. I had a top 20 valuation on him entering the season. I figured he would have the touch count and he's a fading as a runner (it seems), and a really good receiver. But people thinking he had some great night on TNF because he scored 3 short TDs and 100+ rushing…you're taking it totally out of context of judging him as special or not.

I know this is the media's doing. You know why? The announce team lost their minds about Gurley's performance all night last night and all day today (Friday). He's all the talk.

Ummm…did anyone notice Carlos Hyde (25-84-2, 3-10-0/4) is twice the talented Gurley is…playing in the same exact game? You couldn’t watch these two at work and not come away thinking Hyde is the better talent. The media says 100% to 0% that isn't true. Playing with an inferior QB, line, and with an injured hip missing a chunk of the game – Hyde put the team on his back versus a pretty solid defense and nearly willed his team to a victory.

Gurley was a guy that got in on the fun created by Jared Goff…and then failed/got stuffed most of the second half at scoring.

Hyde was a guy that carried his team with headwinds battling him.

Who's better for fantasy 2017? Probably Gurley. Better offense and defense to work with and all the media behind him to push the coaches.

Remember when the beat writers were saying Hyde was a backup/going to be traded…and Joe Williams was going to start?

I do.

That same media is pushing Gurley, who I like too, don’t get me wrong…but THEY LOOOOVVVEEEE him. Hyde – they don’t give a second's mention as a great NFL RB.

I like Gurley; I just don’t see this god they've created. I see all the weak results for 20+ games and wonder why we still canonize him. BUT HE SCORED 3 TDs IN THIS GAME!

Great.

The Rams won’t be facing the league's worst run defenses anymore, not three in a row like Weeks 1–3. Now things get tougher. Let's see what happens.

 

-- Jared Goff (22-28 for 292 yards, 3 TD/0 INT) has blown past 'gaining acceptance' and right into relevant discussion for QB1 status in fantasy. He's only going to get better from here.

Tacking on this performance, there aren’t many QBs playing the position better. He gets better every week. Trevor Siemian is playing well too, and I said Siemian was a better prospect than Goff this past week. I'm walking that back all of a sudden. Goff is coming on like a hailstorm. Siemian is right there with him. Both guys are pushing ahead of the old guard for fantasy…better than Dalton, Rivers, Palmer, etc. You want fringe QB1 talents/producers with upside? Siemian and Goff have arrived…while Dalton, Palmer, Rivers are fading behind them.

Also, the media will chase Carson Wentz and Jameis Winston as the young stars of the future…gimme Goff and Siemian.

 

-- Sammy Watkins (6-106-2/7) was a ghost for the early part of this game and then caught fire. It’s a good time to make a deal hot, trading him away.

Nothing against Sammy, but Goff is a guy who spreads it around to open receivers…not old-school forcing it to the same guy like a Jay Cutler, Big Ben, or Philip Rivers does.

Watkins was not being sought out by Goff at all. He was used as needed, as open. Robert Woods (6-108-0/7) was being more sought out early on.

Watkins will trade as a WR1.5 this week. I think he might be more WR2.5 for the ROS. Tougher, much tougher opponents ahead.

 

-- Pierre Garcon (7-142-0/10) was the best WR in this game. Again, lesser QB, and faced better coverage…and he was a monster. I've always been a fan, and now we see him getting #1 WR treatment. Good for him. Long overdue.

 

-- Aldrick Robinson (2-23-0/4) got a shot at more starter type work and failed. He had a couple key drops that couldn’t be forgotten over his one great catch. Robinson is not taking a step to another level it appears.

 

-- Raheem Mostert (4-11-0) got a shot at more work and looked tentative. The star of the preseason looked totally different in his regular season touch debut for SF.

 

-- I know this was a crazy game, but it doesn’t look like the Rams DST is ready for primetime. 39 points allowed to the 49ers? 27 allowed to the Redskins? Dallas next week before the schedule turns back favorable for them with SEA-JAC-ARI-NYG-HOU-MIN. If you’re into the Rams in a deeper dynasty, I’d hold them and not start them Week 4, but get ready for the Week 5+ run.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>