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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk4: Colts v. Seahawks

Date:
October 3, 2017 8:42 PM
October 3, 2017 8:40 PM

I had a strange experience watching this game live. You want to talk about a tale of two games, my viewing experience told the tale.

As I was watching this game live, I saw the contest going exactly the way I wanted it to go – the Colts playing toe to toe with the disappointing Seattle Seahawks. I think Seattle is a fraud and I took the Colts +13.0, and with an 18–18 score in the third quarter I felt pretty righteous about myself.

At that point, my teenage son barges into the office and says, "Do you want that burger I owe you?" Nothing like a late night Wendy’s double cheeseburger paid for by someone else, so I paused the DVR and said, "Let’s go." I was sure not a whole lot could happen in 10 minutes.

By the time I returned this game it turned into a total blowout. A joke of a game. A beat down. Before I left it was two bad football teams playing to a draw. I returned to see a flogging in progress…and witnessed Chris Carson get turned into a human pretzel.

This is classic Seattle. After getting pushed around on their home field for about 2.5 quarters, a couple of breaks fall their way and the dam opens up and they decide to run it up on a defenseless team. They've really showed the world that they're fine now – they are able to humiliate the Colts for a quarter at home. All fixed. Everything‘s fine now. Nothing to see here. Just a team that was handled by the 49ers playing at Seattle. And now the Colts gave the Seahawks a run in front of the 12th man. The Seahawks are such a gigantic fraud but as I’ve said for a couple weeks now – the schedule is going to gloss it over potentially. A 7–9 squad in truth might post a 10–6 season because they have the 49ers and Cardinals marked down for easy wins. Then, luckily they play the Colts early without Andrew Luck.

One of the biggest point spread line disparities in my computer models versus point spreads for Week 5 is the LA Rams over Seattle at LA. The perfect storm of people thinking Seattle is now fixed because they had a nice quarter+ of a game that they initially looked like the lesser team. The Seattle name still holds value (like 'Arizona' did last year for several weeks), and people don’t trust the Rams yet so the line is suppressed (like 'Dallas' did last year for several weeks. It’s possible the Rams are the best bet of the week and maybe you’re forced to take them in the survivor pool(?).

The poor Colts. They are a bad but scrappy team with Jacoby Brissett at QB. They should be 2–2 on the season right now. If they could've pull this game off, they could’ve been tied for first place buying more time for the Andrew Luck return. Instead, they blew it just like they did last week. If the Colts can steal a win in the next two weeks, they won’t be any worse than a game out of first place most likely as Andrew Luck is about to return. The season is definitely not over yet. I still think they’ll finish near/at the bottom of the AFC South but hope is right around the corner.

 

Fantasy player notes…

 — What to do with the Seattle backfield post-Chris Carson injury is a lot more difficult question to answer than what happens with the Vikings now that Dalvin Cook is gone. The reason I pushed everyone to trade Chris Carson the past two weeks because the situation is a cluster. Now, it’s even more so.

Carson was on his way to one of those dull Seattle output games by a running back. Someone hampered by the fact that Seattle is brilliant enough to get Eddie Lacy (11-52-0) as involved as possible. This is why I cautioned that Chris Carson had a lot of sharks in the water, even if they are bloated, ineffective sharks. Seattle is just dumb enough to ruin a good thing. On cue, that’s exactly what they did pushing Lacy touches equal to Carson. It doesn’t matter now because Carson is done for the season in his NFL career may have just gone up in smoke as well.

So who do you play for on waivers this week?

Let me eliminate several names I’m not interested in before I get to the one that I kinda-sorta am.

The easy thing to do is to jump in on Thomas Rawls. If he’s healthy, he’s the guy that I'd get it. The team loves him. The problem is Thomas Rawls is never healthy. He’s always a disappointment. It'd be a lesser Chris Carson entering the fray – surrounded by all the same sharks. Unless desperate, I’m not taking a position in the Rawls. In fact, it’s a good time to trade him if you somehow have him.

Eddie Lacy will not go away because Seattle is the worst coached team in football this side of Cleveland. He’s always going to be lurking to take a handful of carries.

Weather Lacy or Rawls -- the same problem exists a la Chris Carson… Seattle has a terrible offensive line and thus they really don’t have a running game ever.

C.J. Prosise is getting work like a wide receiver, on a team with a pretty flimsy passing. Prosise isn’t getting many carries but is seemingly always hurt guys always seem to be hurt or a game away from getting hurt. It’s time to stop messing with them unless you’re desperate.

If you’ve been with me for a while, you know who I’m about to endorse. I don’t think I can endorse him in a 12 team/15–man roster type of typical fantasy redraft league. The deeper your roster goes, the more interested I am in J.D. McKissic (4-38-1, 1-27-1/1).

I can’t get any more interested in J.D. because for all the reasons I mentioned about Chris Carson and the others the last couple weeks – too many sharks swimming in the pool and Seattle's coaching staff is dumb as a box of rocks.

The reason I CAN get a little interested in McKissic despite all of this is – he is a fantastic player, and always hurt guys will probably always be hurt. By attrition, McKissic may matter.

My introduction and love for McKissic started his 2016 rookie preseason with the Atlanta Falcons when I pushed him as a top 30 dynasty rookie prospect as a UDFA out of Arkansas State. He blew me away in the 2016 preseason. Returning kicks and punts for scores and making fantastic catches (and the Falcons cut him!!!). He’s just one of those guys that makes things happen. He’s a Swiss Army knife of possibilities. He’s not as athletically gifted as Tarik Cohen or Tyreek Hill, etc. However, he’s a much better receiver and will not be outworked or outhustled. There’s a reason why he scored two TDs when finally given his opportunity.

The two TDs has my attention. Under normal circumstances, McKissic would be a guy I complain about for the next three years as he got two touches every other week. However, McKissic becoming a darling of the fans because of his Week 4 performance has sway with the coaching staff. People are gonna want to see more of this guy. Now, Darrell Bevell is too stupid to fully utilize him probably, but I’m sure he will get touched to McKissic…and he is so good he can make hay out of them. I’m just thinking that is nice flash onto the scene combined with the fact that every Seattle running back may be on the I.R. soon – it could lead to a bizarre Tyreek Hill-like opportunity for McKissic based purely on desperation.

The only way my kind of guys, low draft status/potential gems, ever get noticed/get an opportunity is due to injury forcing it. We may have one of those circumstances right here.

 

 — I love Russell Wilson (21-26 got 295 yards, 2 TD/2 INT), but I suspect were in a Russell Wilson temporary blip of high performance. I hope not, but I think it is. Last week they were getting walloped and threw a bunch trying to catch up against a bad Tennessee pass defense. This week they decided to play the bully role and run up the score on a hapless Colts defense. The schedule is about to get a little more difficult. At the Rams, BYE, at the Giants the next three weeks.

 

 — I was watching Jimmy Graham (4-61-0/6) closely again at this game – and I still don’t see it. He had a nice timing catch for yards on one particular play or otherwise he was on his way to a Fantasy dud. He looks like he’s half-asleep playing. He moves around like he has a weird osteoporosis where his bones may explode if he moves too fast. I just think he’s disgusted playing with this team and going through the motions.

Whatever it is, he’s not going to be much for fantasy 2017. Any hopes of him getting traded are not likely because Seattle schedule and weaker division to keep them propped up as a playoff team all year.

As far as 2018 goes, when he’s a free agent – we don’t know where is going to wind up, and as gingerly as he’s playing we don’t know whether he’s hiding an injury, slowing down, or just doesn’t care. A certain point he’s worth sitting on for 2018, but he’s not much use in 2017.

 

 — Donte Moncrief (3-30-1/3) scored a TD, and the announcers made a big deal of what a great WR Moncrief has been this year. Here are his 2017 numbers per game: 2.0 rec., 35.5 yards, 0.25 TDs. Magical.

 

 — Rookie CB Malik Hooker (3 tackles, 1 INT) just finds a way to pick off passes. He picked off Russell Wilson in this game – giving him an interception three games in a row.

 

 — Colts Safety Mathias Farley (10 tackles, 1 PD) got back on his tackle train with 10 tackles in this game. Last week, Farley only had two tackles but he also got hurt in the game.

Farley has 10-8-2-10 tackles in his four games this season. He’s putting up more reasons to believe versus 'not' at this point.

 

 — When is Andrew Luck coming back? Well, he just started practicing this week so I’m guessing he’ll miss the San Francisco game this week…a winnable game for the Colts. Weeks 6–7 are probably the entire season for the Colts. I could see Luck rushing back for that stretch – at Tennessee followed by hosting Jacksonville in Weeks 6-7. Two big AFC South contests that the team would really have no chance in unless Luck was playing.

I’d say he's 50-50 for Week 6, and 90% for Week 7. And you can’t start him with confidence Week 7 versus Jacksonville because of the Jags defense.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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