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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk4: Giants v. Bucs

October 5, 2017 1:38 PM
October 5, 2017 1:33 PM

The Giants aren't very good but they should be better than 0-4. They should've won one or both of their last two games, including this one. However, it seems that Ben McAdoo has drained the life out of this team and the locker room has reportedly become a mess – Colin Cowherd has been right on this for weeks/years…you make Odell Beckham the face of your franchise and this is what happens. He's the tail that wags the dog. McAdoo has lost control and is proving to be a terrible coach…and you can see it in the Giants play now. They're just going through the motions. It's sad to see how this team has fallen from 2016's playoff team.

It's not an Eli Manning (30-49 for 288 yards, 2 TD/0 INT) thing either, he looks 'good enough'. This is a Ben McAdoo thing. The first five plays of this game were touches to Paul Perkins…for the love of God…that guy is awful. Perkins hasn't done anything in the NFL at all…nothing that warrants him starting or getting the first five touches of a game, but he did. He also touched seven of the first nine offensive plays. Shockingly, the Giants didn't drive/score early and were down 13-0 in a blink of an eye.

If the Giants lose to the Chargers in Week 5, they'll fall to 0-5…with at Denver and then Seattle after. An 0-7 start and a midseason Ben McAdoo firing are all hanging in the balance of beating the Chargers this week.

If the Giants fall to 0-7, I wouldn’t be shocked if the team entertained a mega-deal trading away entering-a-contract-year 2018 Odell Beckham either.

Tampa Bay is a helter-skelter team – a fast, lucky start over Chicago in their opener then shut down by the Bears the entire second half…but had a huge lead to start and still cruised to victory. Absolutely crushed by the Vikings Week 2, but mounted a frenzied push late to make the score seem plausible. They jumped on the Giants 16-0 at the half…then lost 23-9 in the second half, with a final drive FG to win it late. I'm completely unimpressed with this team, and to be fair they've had a lot of defensive injuries and Doug Martin is just now arriving. I don’t like this team but I cant make a definitive judgment until I see them at full strength. They should get whacked by the Patriots tonight.


Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I don’t get tired of me saying, hopefully you don’t either, but Evan Engram (6-62-0/11) is awesome. I keep repeating it because at some point the fantasy world will realize he's going to be a top 1-3 tight end for fantasy for years to come.

All that rookie TE nonsense…Engram is top 10 in PPR and nonPPR in PPG among TEs, but more critically – he's #2 in fantasy in targets per game at TE.


Top 3 in TE targets per game YTD:

9.0 = Ertz

7.5 = Engram

7.5 = Gronk


Engram is working as a sit-down, classic over the middle tight end when needed…but also as a field stretcher and guy you can put on the move and get him the ball to fly. The Giants haven't fully unleashed him but you can see Eli is looking for him almost as a #2 option…OBJ, OBJ, OBJ, then Engram…then others. The Shane Vereen check downs in a two-minute drill are more going to Engram now.

I still think there is a chance Engram is going to finish as the top tight end in fantasy this year. He's that good.


 -- Wayne Gallman (11-42-0, 2-8-0/2) has some people excited, but I am very cautious here. Partly because I know Gallman is a limited talent. He's not mega-athlete that's going to push past everyone and take over. But mostly I doubt because I know Ben McAdoo is a moron who is betrothed to Paul Perkins. It doesn't matter what any other RB does…and you/me watching Perkins, then Orleans Darkwa or Gallman makes them look like they are the fastest guys on the planet compared to that slug Paul Perkins. Don’t let the optics fool you.

Gallman is fine-ish. He's OK. Forced all the touches he'd be an RB3, I guess? But that’s never going to happen. Perkins will start yet again. The other guys will mix in. Every Giants RB is lacking in some way, and the O-Line is bad (and just lost their center this week), and the game plan is bad…the whole thing is useless to try to predict.


 -- Jameis Winston (22-38 for 332, 3 TD/0 INT) is showing a preference for Cameron Brate (4-80-1/6) over O.J. Howard (2-63-1/4) and, honestly, I don’t know that it isn't going to change for years. I have a feeling Howard is stuck all year in fantasy tight end purgatory…maybe more.

You and I know how talented he is. We'll get suckered in every year, or I know I will. I'll always be guessing the talent to win out…but sometimes it doesn’t/takes a while.

The 2018 offseason will be a huge moment for Howard's fantasy outlook for dynasty. Brate is a restricted free agent. Will Tampa Bay protect Brate/pay him big when they have Howard in hand…or will they let Brate get claimed by another team and totally pave the way for Howard?

The Bucs never intended to draft O.J. Howard, but because the NFL GMs are mostly ridiculous…Howard, a top 10 prospect, a unique prospect…one of the best TE prospects of the last decade, fell in the draft because 'you don’t take tight ends too high'. The Bucs are sitting there at #19 and couldn’t pass up this deal.

Some players are drafted with a purpose, with game plans already being drawn up before the draft. Some guys just fall into a team's lap and they take him just because…and there is no real plan. That’s what Howard feels like to me…sweet excess at the tight end spot – when he should be 'major weapon'. Winston is not that kind of QB and this team is not set up for OJH as a weapon. Howard is in TE purgatory until further notice.

YTD numbers…

5.1 FF PPG, 6.4 PPR on 1.3 rec. (2.7 targets), 30.7 yards, 0.33 TDs per game = Howard

8.8 FF PPG, 12.1 PPR on 3.3 rec. (4.3 targets), 45.7 yards, 0.67 TDs per game = Brate


*Side note, the Barber Brothers (Tiki and whatever the other one is called) shared commentary in this game. I don’t know which one of them was worse. It's like if a person had a college public speaking presentation on an assigned, specific subject…but never once studied it and went to give the presentation with no notes anyway.

After any player touched a ball one of the Barber's proclaimed every cliched extreme at that moment. Winston threw a pass to Cameron Brate and random Barber blurted – that's why Cameron Brate is Winston's most trusted receiver. Really? Was Mike Evans made aware of this?


 -- Jameis Winston (22-38 for 332 yards, 3 TD/0 INT) is a star again…having a great output against 0-4 NYG proves it.

Please, ignore in his seven games previous to this one that Winston 9 TDs/10 INTs. Please, just focus on this one good game because it's all us football fan dummies need to know…per the football intelligentsia.


 -- The past two weeks with IDP rookie Kendell Beckwith (9 tackles) starting with the Bucs regular LBs out hurt: 8 and 9 tackles. He should do that again this week with both LBs out again Week 5.


 -- My beloved DE Cap Capi (1 tackle) played in an early season NFL game and had a tackle!! JPP and Olivier Vernon could both be out Week 5 – could I dare say it is Capi time? Does anyone besides me care?


Snap Counts of Interest…

31 = Gallman

27 = Perkins

22 = Vereen


59 = Evans

45 = DJax

43 = Humphries

09 = Godwin


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>