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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk4: Jags v. Jets

October 4, 2017 11:40 PM
October 4, 2017 11:35 PM

What a strange game. The Jets basically got two hot plays…two long TD runs out of nowhere. One of them a phantom tackle and surprise continuation that caught the defense off guard. The Jets pure luck in this game outdueled an awful performance by Blake Bortles (15-35 for 140 yards, 1 TD/1 INT). How a QB can be so bad and still be starting is beyond me. I literally spent the end of the game into OT watching live and thinking – the Jags have no hope unless they get a defensive score. Bortles fails in every crucial spot…and he did.

Despite the Bortles depression, the Jags still dominated this game but too many whacky moments went the Jets way from a phantom tackle surprise to a fake punt to a game-winning Leonard Fournette TD late called back for holding…just a few of the low lights for the Jags. The Jaguars won this in every way but the scoreboard.

The Jets now face CLE in Week 5…if they win, they go to Week 6 hosting New England with a chance to put a few games between them and the Pats in the standings. Can you imagine?

The Jags are in some trouble. They coughed up a game they should've won. Now, they face PIT-LAR back-to-back and might fall to 2-4 and have the wheels come off a team that should contend for the AFC South title. A QB change should be coming anytime now…but does it even matter?


Fantasy player notes…

 -- Take away the two long runs in this game, and one was a hoax by Bilal Powell (21-163-1, 4-27-0/5), and the Jets' RB duo rushed the ball 29 times for 114 yards (3.9 ypc). The Jets didn’t run as wild on the Jags as it appears…it was a little bit of a fluke.

The running theme of each big run – Myles Jack (9 tackles, 1 TFL), who should not be at middle linebacker…I say for the 700th time, was at middle linebacker and got blown out of the play and they ran right through his space for the score. Myles Jack is killing this defense being out of position and his terrible tackling ability – how can I have seen this for two years and the Jags cannot? They also start Blake Bortles on purpose so why should I be surprised?

The better looking of the two RBs was Elijah McGuire (10-93-1, 2-38-0/2). If Powell didn’t break the long run early, I'm not sure that there wouldn't have been a more equal touch count between the two.

If you have Bilal Powell and got this one week bump – this is a great time to sell him. He had a lucky long play here. McGuire is right up his back. The Browns in Week 4 have a great run defense. Matt Forte is coming back soon, in theory. You're at 'peak Powell' right now.

The carries in a game for McGuire since Week 1: 0-6-7-10. He's averaging 6.8 ypc this season to-date, aided by his 69-yard TD run. I thought Forte would be traded at some point and leave Powell to inherit the earth but now I believe they want to push McGuire…and he's not that kind of workhorse guy either so in 2018 it will be some other plan. For some, in slightly deeper leagues, McGuire is a guy to sit on and see what happens.


 -- Speaking of RBs, just a quick note – Leonard Fournette (24-86-0, 4-59-1/5) is awesome. Arguably the best RB in football who is actively playing right now (David Johnson is on IR)…that kind of good. What he's doing against stacked lines with a horrible QB is amazing.

He'll be a 10-15+ TD a season guy for years with a real QB. He's on pace for 16 TDs right now.


 -- Austin Seferian-Jenkins (4-46-0/4) looks like a mere mortal on the field for the Jets. I see nothing special happening. It just so happens the Browns and Pats are terrible vs. the tight end so far this year so it puts ASJ in play for a blip the next two weeks. Other than that…I see nothing to get excited about.


 -- Keelan Cole (1-10-0/6) has caught just 4 passes on 15 targets this season. However, because I'm intrigued, I watch his work pretty close…in this game, you can blame it all on Bortles. He's barely close to open receivers on most throws. It's ridiculous.

I mention Cole because Marqise Lee is hurt (again) and if Chad Henne rolls into town…Cole is his guy.


 -- The Jaguars defense held the Texans to 7 points Week 1. They held the Ravens to 7 points in a Week 3 humiliation. Take out OT and Powell's garbage TD in this game and the Jags D held the Jets to 13 points otherwise.

The Jags defense is #6 in PPG allowed. #1 in passing yards per game allowed and #1 in sacks. Once you get past the Steelers in Week 5 they have the Rams in Week 6. Two tougher matchups, then they have a BYE followed by a possible start-every-week schedule run post-BYE.

I'm not sure they won’t smack the Steelers, but more likely to fluster the Rams. Arguably the best defense in the NFL…just held back by their QB.


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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