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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk5: Ravens v. Raiders

Date:
October 12, 2017 10:09 PM
October 12, 2017 10:00 PM

This was about as painful to watch as the Tennessee – Miami game. If there is an offense worse than the Baltimore Ravens I’d like to see it…well, I did just watch Miami play. OK, second worst…Ravens. Oakland’s offense isn’t much better.

I don’t think Derek Carr coming back can save what I’ve seen from the Raiders the last three weeks. Sometimes you can track the team's peak moment, before a fall, to a specific game…I have a feeling the Raiders peaked when they crushed the Jets in Week 2. They’ve been a nightmare ever since. Oakland picked a bad time to wobble and fall…as KC and Denver rise higher in the division.

Somehow the Ravens are 3-2 (easy schedule start), and I’d like to write them off…I have written them off. But in reality, they’re still alive in a very bizarre AFC North 2017 with this win. The AFC North has turned into the old AFC South...8-8 record might do.

 

Fantasy player notes…

 — I don’t know if I’m being pranked or punked, or if there some kind of optical illusion – but I swear that Javorius Allen (21-73-1, 4-12-0/5) is never really playing in the games I watch on Sunday for the Ravens. Every time I look at the box scores after the games close I see Allen has 20+ carries and I’m always left wondering -- how the hell did that happen? I watch the game live on Sunday and I never see him doing much of anything.Yet, there he is with big touch counts every week it seems.

Terrance West started this game because the Ravens pick starting running backs via a magic eight ball week to week. West got hurt right away and then all the sudden Alex Collins (12-55-0) looked really good. Yet, Allen has all these touches and fantasy points… I don’t get it.

Allen doesn’t seem to be the plan when they start, but somehow he’s the guy mopping everything up. I guess that makes him viable for Fantasy. He’s just not my cuppa tea.

I mean, I guess Allen is the guy to own? Alex Collins works? It’s a rough offense so there’s room for both to something, at least, with Terrance West out.

Carries in games this season by Allen (starting Week 1): 21-14-8-2-21…from 2 to 21 in a week. You try to figure this stuff out!

 

 -- Your RB situation could be worse – you could own Marshawn Lynch (12-43-1, 1-10-0/1). At least, he got a TD for you this week.

Under 50 yards rushing in each of his last four games, averaging 29.5 rushing yards per game in that span.

This week against the awful run defense of the Chargers…Lynch isn’t a bad option.

 

 -- Amari Cooper (1-8-0/2) had another gem.

 

Check out these numbers in his last 4 games (starting Week 2)…

Catches 4-1-2-1

Yards: 33-6-9-8

 

He’s averaging 7.7 yards per game as a starting WR for the Raiders the past three weeks.

In the typical 12-team/15-man roster redrafts…I don’t know how you make a case for keeping him on the roster…maybe, the fact that there are no other WRs on waivers worth a look? Hopefully, Cooper turns?

Something has gone way wrong here.

Remember how critical it was for NFL teams to draft Amari Cooper and Sammy Watkins?

The last five WRs who were the first WR off the draft board (2013-2017)…

Corey Davis, Corey Coleman, Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, Tavon Austin.

But, please note – the experts in draft analysis know what they’re doing. A first round WR has been the single biggest waste of drafts picks the past five years. Almost to the guy they’ve flamed out the past 3-4 years…not just disappointing but awful and hurt A LOT.

Yet, in a couple of months they’ll be pushing 5-6 of the first-round again.

One of the biggest attributes to look for in a college WR is the hardest thing to study/find – ‘heart’/toughness. Its why a growing part of my studies for all positions is the personal examinations. Their backgrounds. The way they conduct themselves in interviews, etc. There’s a skill to detecting and interpreting the mental side instead of waving pom-poms because some guys are radically bigger and faster than the DBs he faces in most every game in college.

 

 -- Ben Watson (2-2-0/4) had another flimsy game. Prior to this game, in his last 3 games he’s averaged 4.0 rec., 48.7 yards and 0.33 TDs. Some of that on the strength of a big Week 2 game. There’s been no real follow through since. DO note – Watson had two end zone targets but no payoff.

I’m chasing Zach Miller and Tyler Kroft and ditching any remnants of Watson this week.

 

 -- Finally, we got some of that expected Justin Tucker (3/3 FGs, 3 XPs) action. The schedule of defenses ahead are pretty favorable.

Tucker’s nightmare games this season came against JAC-PIT…two of the best defenses in the NFL. They have MIN Week 7 and PIT Week 14 and pretty nice opportunity aside from that. Watching this game…watching the Ravens stall drives time and time again on offenses getting at/near the red zone…I LOVE IT! That’s the John Harbaugh offense!

 

 -- Oakland CB T.J. Carrie (7 tackles, 1 TFL) has quietly had a solid, consistent IDP season to-date – 5.6 tackles per game.  

Snap Counts of Interest...

55 = Amari

50 = Roberts

36 = Crabtree

19 = Patterson

34 = Cory James

31 = Marquel Lee

47 = Allen

16 = Collins

03 = West

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>