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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk6: Bears v. Ravens

Date:
October 17, 2017 11:41 PM
October 17, 2017 11:40 PM

This game was never that close. It was a 27-24 win in OT for the Bears but they led 17-3 in the 3rd quarter and were up 24-13 with 5 minutes left and blew those leads but grabbed the victory in OT. Of the Ravens 24 points…two TDs from the return game.

If the Bears weren’t so poorly coached they could have won their Week 5 game versus the Vikings (a three-point loss). Had they won that Week 5 game, the Bears would be 3-3 tied with the Vikings and Lions in the NFC North and sitting a game behind Aaron Rodgers-less 4-2 Green Bay right now. The Bears ownership should be kicking themselves for hiring John Fox…but they won’t. They will sit on their hands and do nothing…and die honorably, and then make a change at the end of the season. This season could have gone so much different had Chicago started Trubisky Week 1 and dumped John Fox on draft day. What might have been…

The Ravens are worse than the Bears. That whole organization needs an enema from GM down. I can’t believe this Ravens offense even exists in the NFL. Joe Flacco in 2017 to-dtae: 4 TDs/8 INTs.

FYI, the Ravens are in the playoff hunt at 3-3…the worst 3-3 team in the history of football, perhaps. This team is going nowhere fast.

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Mitchell Trubisky (8-16 for 113 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) is so good you guys. He’s too good for the situation he is in…a la Jared Goff in 2016.

Trubisky = next Rodgers

Goff = next Brady

I’m not saying that to be cute or try to help with visualization. I mean this down to their shoelaces. Two Hall of Fame QBs in our midst.

Superior talent QBs are pouring into the NFL, and have been for two years now and more on the way…but they usually meet their temporary/permanent demise with antiquated, out of touch NFL coaches they ‘inherit’. However, Goff has his Belichick. Trubisky will pick up his awful head coach, John Fox today, and whatever old-school current coordinator the Bears hire next season, and carry them to ‘genius’ status a la Rodgers breaking his collarbone carrying around Mike McCarthy for years.

It’s not Trubisky’s time yet, I don’t think. This 2017 offense is a total disaster. I watched the ‘all 22’ coach’s film of this game and there is no one open. Two guys the Titans didn’t want (Wright, McBride), a WR no one wanted (Gentry) and a TE Miami didn’t want (Sims) all running routes as if the defenders were stapled to them. Trubisky drops back to pass and has the patience of a 10-year veteran surveying the field but has to throw the ball away or take a sack many times because the O-Line can’t hold forever. Hell, the O-Line could hold for 20 seconds and no one would still be open for Chicago.

Meanwhile, Weeks 1-2 gamechanger, top receiver, best hands on the team Tarik Cohen sits on the sidelines watching this…waiting for his chance to come in and throw a pass. John Fox is such a wild man…such an innovator.

Trubisky is Adele singing backup in your church choir today. He’s above all this but we don’t know when it changes. Likely, in 2018 because this 2017 WR group is a disaster. If Cohen isn’t deployed more in the passing game…forget it. Zach Miller can only do so much.

Trubisky is so good, he might make lemonade out of this yet. Carolina Week 7…and then the schedule may allow him to light his own fuse starting Week 8 – NO, BYE, GB, DET, PHI, SF, CIN, DET, CLE to finish out fantasy 2017.

If I had to bet, I’d bet against him doing anything amazing for FF because of the coach and the lack of receiving options…but I wouldn’t bet a lot against him. If the Bears pull off a shocker versus Carolina this week, given their schedule…they may be in the NFC North race all season. Week 7 is huge for them.

 

 -- So, what to do with America’s favorite passing tailback Tarik Cohen (14-32-0, 1-14-0/3, 1-1 w/ 1 passing TD)?

I can’t sneeze at Cohen getting 14 carries in this game…the passing TD saved another FF disaster in the box score though. 21 targets the first two games…12 targets the last 4 games.

The 14 carries were a season high.

You see what I see… Every other time he touches the ball it looks like he’s about to break it for a TD. I think you have to hold this unique talent and see what happens the next two weeks before their BYE. He was a stud in the receiving game for two weeks and they have an obvious need for receivers TODAY…so he could be a stud again. 10 carries and 5 targets per game…that’s an RB2-3 in BYE weeks…with the chance he pops a punt return TD, which is coming any game now.

You can’t confidently start him Week 7, but you can have hope if you need to…and you want to hold to see another couple weeks unfold.

 

 -- Bears UDFA WR Tanner Gentry (0-0-0/1) started this game if I recall (or was in first series a lot). From UDFA preseason star to cut to practice squad to called up last week and starting on Sunday. He and Trubisky have a relationship that worked nicely in the preseason. Mitch’s first long pass was to Gentry, who had his man beat deep, but Trubisky threw it too deep (and then wiped by a penalty anyway). There was another shot to Gentry, incomplete, but negated via penalty.

I am not advocating he be picked up in 12-team redraft, but he’s someone to keep an eye on to see if he becomes pick-up-able.

Gentry is a poor man’s Eric Decker or Chris Hogan…really poor.

 

 -- Again, I have no earthly idea what the Ravens RB plan is – so just stay away.

Alex Collins (15-74-0) looks like the best runner, but most people play PPR…and Collins has played a pretty good amount the past five games and in that span, he has 2 targets and zero catches.

 

 -- We all love Justin Tucker (3/3 FGs) and it seems like he’s starting to get back to normal…3/3 in FGs in each of the last two weeks. However, here are two warnings where you may want to roll with another kicker for that given week or pick one up now and roster for the next 4 weeks – (1) the Ravens offense is so bad and the Vikings defense is so good…I fear Tucker getting shutout again. The Jags and Steelers killed his scoring chances earlier this year. (2) Week 10 BYE.

If you’re a desperate 1-5 team or maybe 2-4 and two games back of the last playoff spot – you have a lot on the line this week. If you’re in a do-or-die spot…Tucker v. MIN because of the Ravens offense/Vikings defense is not filled with promise. You may want to roster a second kicker…or just dump him knowing Weeks 7 and 10 (BYE) are useless.

The schedule turns nice most all other games but I fear this Week 7 v. MIN.

Robbie Gould, Graham Gano, Dan Bailey…they might be among the better options this week.

 

 -- Matt Judon (14 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 4 TFLs), who we love, went crazy in this game. His playing time and numbers have been creeping up but this was a shocker of an IDP performance. Wow!

I imagine he’ll see more time and respect after this week. Might be a sleeper to use as a DL coming up for those in need. He has the potential to be an 8-10+ sacks a season guy.   

 

 -- Sorry, not a Chris Moore (3-44-0/7) fan. Now, if he were called up by the Bears right now…maybe I take note. On this disastrous Ravens passing game – no chance.

 

Snap Counts of Interest…

76 = Gentry

58 = McBride

25 = K. Wright

 

54 = Howard

26 = Cohen

01 = Cunningham

 

70 = Mike Wallace

34 = Chris Moore

33 = Michael Campanaro

 

70 = Matt Juden (88%)

54 = Chris Wormley

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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