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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk6: Bucs v. Cardinals

October 20, 2017 6:54 PM
October 20, 2017 6:44 PM

Two really weak, erratic football teams played a game and one of them blew out the other for a half and then they switched places and the team that got blown out first half blew out the other in the second half.

This game was 24-0 at the half, Arizona.

It was eventually 31-0 Arizona.

Tampa Bay then went on a 33-7 run and damn near came back to win the game.

I’m glad Arizona won…one step closer to a David Johnson return, but I hate to pee in your DJ-Corn Flakes but we might have a DJ issue unforeseen. More on that in a moment.

Arizona is 3-3 and should be 3-4 heading into their Week 8 BYE, and then 4-4 after defeating SF Week 9. Around Week 10 the David Johnson rumors of a return will heat up. Arizona should be ‘in it’ enough to want to get DJ back ASAP. Even if they fall to 4-6, then they have three home games in a row Weeks 12-14. The stage is setting up for DJ to get back this year. If Arizona somehow beats the Rams in London this week and takes over 1st place then ‘Katie bar the door’.

Tampa Bay is about to do a nose dive…well, it’s already started. They are 2-3 with BUF-CAR-NO ahead…and a possible fall to 2-6 looms. If they fall to 2-6 and essentially out of the playoff hunt we should start to hear the first national chatter on ‘Is James Winston really any good?’ I for one, cannot wait to finally be joined by anyone in the football community willing to stand with me. #ImWithRC


Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I’m sure you figured out the David Johnson issue that lurks ahead – Adrian Peterson (26-134-2). As long as AP is playing well and injecting life into Arizona…the bigger the issue/problem is.

If you think Bruce Arians won’t split healthy David Johnson and Adrian Peterson then it’s so cute how innocent and gullible you are. I used to be that way. And then I got into the business many years ago and learned the hard way over time.

David Johnson owners need AP to start struggling but Arizona to at least win one of their next three games. If Arizona beats the Rams and AP has 100+ yards rushing – David Johnson will be coming back as a 3rd down back, potentially. There is NO chance Arians will sit Peterson for Johnson, even to his own demise he won’t do it. Arians loves misfit toys, tough guys, and players with questionable character who are desperate/beholden to Arians – Adrian Peterson is his crowning jewel. It’s like Arians can cross this off his bucket list “Got to coach Adrian Peterson.” David Johnson is not a misfit, not of questionable character or beholden to Arians as a ‘Daddy figure’.

Many of us are trying to survive the fantasy season to get ‘the precious’ (David Johnson) back into the lineup to roll to the fantasy playoff/title…Adrian Peterson may help set the stage for DJ to get back sooner, but then also be an unexpected roadblock in his way. There is no chance in hell Arians benches Peterson if the team is doing OK and AP is doing OK.

Before you start calling a therapist, recognize Peterson came out on fire in this game and then cooled…his first 4 carries were all for 8+ yards, tallying 61 yards on those 4 carries, capped by a 27-yard TD run. AP went 22 carries for 73 yards (3.3 ypc) the rest of the way/after the first drive. All this Peterson hysteria is nice and nostalgic but let’s see if he just didn’t have a great, enthusiastic first series and then reality sets in from here on in.


 -- The far superior RB in this game who no one really cares about/talks about – Doug Martin (14-53-1, 1-11-0/2). Martin looks terrific and runs like a slightly lesser version of Le’Veon Bell…the hesitation, patience, and burst when he finds the space. Only, he’s stuck with Dirk Koetter so no one cares…not even Koetter.

If the Bucs fall out of the race, there’s no reason for them to throttle back on Martin. They are more likely to cut or trade (unlikely due to his salary) him in the offseason…so, they might as well make him more valuable in a trade…or if they’re going to cut him -- then who cares about his workload now.

FYI, Martin will be 29.8 years old next NFL season…for those in dynasty looking ahead. He’s no spring chicken. About a half year younger than LeSean McCoy.

I like Martin for fantasy ahead, I guess. I don’t trust Dirk Koetter all that much but Martin has come right back into the main workload off suspension.


 -- It was 24-0 Cardinals when Jameis Winston got hurt and they moved to Ryan Fitzpatrick (22-32 for 290 yards, 3 TD/2 INTs).

Rickety, old Fitz led the team to 33 points in about two quarters of play. The Bucs last scored 33+ points in a game 13 games ago under Winston. Honestly, the offense looked better under Fitzpatrick but NO ONE will ever admit that so we rush Jameis back this week for another loss.


 -- Mike Evans (3-95-1/8) has not had a 100+ yard game in his last 10 games. His last 10 games extrapolated out to a 16-game season: 83 catches, 1,075 yards, and 8 TDs. Not bad, not a WR1, per se.

Evans is #10 in PPR PPG this season among all WRs.

Evans doesn’t seem any better or worse…it’s just teams know to double him and he can only make so many great plays off bad throws double covered.


 -- I’m going to put Carson Palmer’s (18-22 for 282 yards, 3 TD/1 INT) 2017 season in context via listing the team’s he faced by their passing yards allowed per game ranking, so you can see why we said (in the preseason) to buy Palmer up to Week 6…

Weeks 1-6 = 22-30-16-26-29-31 (25.6 avg)

Weeks 7-17 = 13-BYE-26-9-10-3-13-19-18-24-9 (14.4 avg)


Very lucky schedule early on, and now it’s coming to capture him…and Larry Fitzgerald, to some degree.


 -- Deone Bucannon (8 tackles) looks like he’s getting back up to speed. One tackle in his debut in Week 4, and 7 and 8 tackles Weeks 5-6. He just looks better moving on the field than he did two weeks ago.


 -- O.J. Howard (1-15-0/3) kinda, sorta took a baby step ahead in this offense…seeing some targets early, on purpose. It’s only from 0.0 (out of 10) to a 1.0 of importance…but it’s progress. Honestly, he looks lost, ignored still in this offense. Like he’s not really into it.

Snap Counts of Interest...

48 = Adrian Peterson

13 = Andre Ellington

58 = Larry Fitz

47 = John Brown

34 = Jaron Brown

12 = J.J. Nelson

45 = O.J. Howard

44 = Brate

37 = D. Martin

27 = Sims

06 = Jacquizz


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>