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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk6: Dolphins v. Falcons

October 21, 2017 9:53 AM
October 21, 2017 9:50 AM

This game was 17-0 Atlanta at the half. They missed a field goal right before the half as well. At home, facing awful Miami…up 17-0…how did Atlanta end up losing 20-17?

Easy answer – Matt Ryan is a worst ‘good’ QB in the NFL. Julio Jones plays half asleep on Sundays. The new O-C is terrible (so far). And Atlanta has been exposed as a fraud previous season Super Bowl runner-up who flops the following season.

I think that about sums it up.

Actually, there were a lot of bizarre twists in the second half that handed Miami the game…some Atlanta’s fault, some luck of the draw. How Miami can even win an NFL game is beyond me – they’re godawful.

Atlanta is 3-2, and oddly they haven’t played an NFC South game yet. All the NO-CAR-TB games still to come. They start a three-game roadie with New England Week 7…if they lose that game the season might be over, in a sense. The Falcons would be losers of three straight and will have just been vanquished by the demons of Super Bowl’s past. It could be a death blow, mentally. Win the Patriots game…and hope still springs. From Week 9 on they play mostly legit playoff teams and also Tampa Bay (2x).

Miami is impossible to figure. They are 3-2, they’re lucky to not be 0-6. A win over the Jets this week and they are a first-place 4-2 heading to play BAL-OAK the next two weeks…winnable games. Miami is awful so they’ll trip up in some of those ‘easy’ games and then they have a gauntlet to end 2017…six losses in a row coming to end the year: NE-DEN-NE-BUF-KC-BUF.


Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I always like to warn people to not disturb Julio Jones (6-72-0/9) between the hours of 1pm-4pmET, because he likes to take a siesta during that time.

One TD in his past 10 games, 2 TDs in his past 13 games. 8 TDs in his last 29 games. Unconscionable for a ‘superstar’. I think Will Fuller had 8 TDs on opening day…or something like that.

Jones is not in the top 24 in PPR and for-sure nonPPR in PPG so far in 2017.

Every time I watch Jones, he’s never open downfield. He gets open on short crossing patterns where a coverage guy gets ‘picked’…but he rarely makes a downfield play or end zone grab anymore. He’s not a top guy anymore. He and Demaryius Thomas are becoming the same non-TD, former FF-elite WRs.

I feel like I’ve been saying that since mid-last season. Even I didn’t want to believe it…but it’s true.


 -- Part of the Julio issue is also on Matt Ryan (24-35 for 248 yards, 1 TD/1 INT). Ryan is reverting to the QB he has been for years. The Falcons are really going to regret signing him to be their franchise guy. The quintessential ‘C’ QB who has ‘B’ moments…just enough to suck you in and fear life without him. He’s going to look silly in the era of athletic QBs who make fast strike decisions out of a ‘spread’ concept. Ryan is a classic drop back and timing passer who is poor at reading defenses. He needs great plays and timing called for him because he cannot carry a team on his own.

2016 was beyond an aberration season. In the past five years, if you take out 2016, Ryan sports a 21-32 record with 81 TDs/53 INTs and a passer rating under 90.0. He’s not terrible he’s just not that good.

TD passes in games this season: 1-1-2-1-1.

Next season, Ryan will be 33+ years old and in a continuing fade as he’s been for years. Julio and Ryan are in decline together. Not good for the future of this franchise.


 -- Tevin Coleman (9-32-0, 1-4-0/1) has turned into one of the best receivers out of the backfield in the NFL…and he had all of one target in this game.

You know what sucks besides Julio Jones and Matt Ryan on the Falcons in 2017…new O-C Steve Sarkisian. I mean, how hard is play calling? You don’t know to get the ball to Tevin Coleman out of the backfield when your team’s offense is struggling?

Don’t even get me started on Devonta Freeman (9-68-0, 2-11-0/4) the most overpaid, overrated RB talent in league potentially.

I’m just not a fan of the Falcons…although, I think they beat the Pats this week.


 -- You have to question the Falcons defense because Jay Ajayi (26-130-0, 0-0-0/3) has been terrible all year, except the one game he faced the #32 run defense in the league…add stomping the Falcons to the list of Ajayi’s rare ‘good’ performances.

The good times will continue to roll for Ajayi the next few weeks with NYJ-BAL-OAK ahead.


 -- Only Antonio Brown (12.3) has more targets per game this season than Jarvis Landry’s (8-62-1/14) 11.4 per game.

Jay Cutler is locked on Landry and with Miami down in games so much, plenty of action for Landry especially in garbage time. Landry is tracking #12 in PPR PPG among WRs so far this season. I don’t see it changing…he’s a PPR WR1 ROS. Two games with NE coming up as well as NYJ-BAL-OAK-TB over the next five weeks.


 -- It may be a blip, but Austin Hooper (7-48-0/9) has gone from nothing to one of the most heavily targeted guys in the offense the past two weeks – 7 and 9 targets in games. 6.0 rec., 49.0 yards, 0.0 TDs per game in the last two weeks. He faces terrible-against-TEs New England this week.


 -- Atlanta WR Marvin Hall (1-40-1/2) came out of nowhere to catch a 40-yard TD pass…putting him one ahead of Julio Jones this season.

Hall is a Taylor Gabriel-like WR. 5’9”/192, 4.40 40-time, 6.86 three-cone, 40.0” vertical. The Falcons barely use Gabriel, so I’m not sure Hall has any fantasy viability in 2017.


Snap Counts of Interest…

42 = Freeman

18 = Coleman


48 = Gabriel

45 = Julio

12 = Marvin Hall


24 = Carroo

06 = Jakeem Grant


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>