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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk6: Lions v. Saints

Date:
October 18, 2017 11:39 PM
October 18, 2017 11:33 PM

What the hell?

The Saints began this game with a strip sack fumble and TD in the end zone, on their way to three defensive TDs, and eventually led this game 45-10 early in the third quarter. I wasn’t sure if the Saints might be the first NFL team to score 100+ points in a game.

FYI, the Saints are #3 in fantasy DST scoring.

#2? The Detroit Lions.

#1? The Jacksonville Jaguars.

During the live watch, I kinda checked out at 45-10. I had the Saints as a top bet at -5.0, so all was right with the betting world. 15 minutes later (in the game) it was 45-38 with still 6+ minutes left. How could the Saints blow a 35-point lead in 15 minutes of play???? I know they are so poorly coached, but really…how is that even possible?

As the Lions attempted the most impossible comeback ever, the last of the three Saints’ defensive scores occurred and they put the Lions to sleep 52-38. Take out the defensive scores and it was 31-31. What a crazy game!

The Saints have won three in a row, and they haven’t been skating by – they’ve been smoking teams…much of it due to their defense. I wasn’t wrong about the Saints sneaky defense…it just seemed I was bad wrong after two weeks. Now, who’s laughing? Now, if I can only get the Patriots to get healthy and stop being awful on defense…

The Saints have a chance to win the NFC South with a 10-win season. I think they are a threat to Carolina, but that both teams will make the playoffs. And the Falcons will probably be left out in the cold…we’ll see if Atlanta can take down New England this week.

Detroit has been going in the other direction – losers of three of their last 4. They just don’t look good after starting out the season solidly. The NFC North is wide open without Aaron Rodgers, so Detroit has time to get its act together. Still, I think a 7-9/8-8 season is likely in the cards here.

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Golden Tate (7-96-1/7) might miss Week 8 (Week 7 BYE) and that could make things interesting because Marvin Jones (6-96-1/14) is rising from the dead the past two weeks…

2.0 rec. (4.5 targets), 32.5 yards, 0.50 TDs per game = Jones Weeks 1-4

6.0 rec. (11.0 targets), 75.0 yards, 0.50 TDs per game = Jones Weeks 5-6

Jones has exactly 6 catches in each of his last two games. He’s been the most targeted Lions’ WR in that span. The last time Marvin got a push (early 2016), Golden Tate threw a hissy fit and took all the targets back and send Jones from fantasy WR1 to the waiver wires within a few weeks.

Week 8 vs. Pittsburgh isn’t a great draw for Marvin.

 

 -- Adrian Peterson gone and Mark Ingram (25-114-2, 5-36-0/5) takes the lion share of carries and targets over Alvin Kamara (10-75-0, 3-12-0/3).

I don’t think Kamara will be this far behind in touches in most games the rest of the way. This game was odd from the get-go, Ingram was working and they just rode it. Kamara will cause a ‘he’s the main guy to have in the Saints backfield’ stir within a few weeks I suspect.

Kamara looked good, but New Orleans got up so big, so fast they eventually tried to sit on the lead and played more conservative with Ingram pounding it. That’s not likely to be a normal occurrence…the Saints up by 35 early in the third quarter of games.

 

 -- I know you want to hate Ted Ginn (4-66-1/4) and my proclamation of him as a fantasy sleeper starter this year. Ginn has two TDs in his last 3 games, and I swear he has at least five ‘almost TDs’. He took a screen pass in this game in the red zone and raced past the defense heading for the pylon but got bumped out at the 1-yard line.

Ginn is going to score 8+ TDs this season, you watch.

 

 -- Speaking of TDs…Darren Fells (2-26-2/4) has 3 TDs in the past two weeks as he pushes sad Eric Ebron (1-9-0/3) aside.

I don’t know that Fells will ever be fantasy viable but he’s trying to matter in nonPPR. If Ebron got hurt, which is probably right around the corner…then Fells might be a sneaky BYE week Hail Mary for the desperate.

 

 -- I said in our draft guide, as part of my fears on Drew Brees (21-31 for 186 yards, 2 TD/2 INT) – Sean Payton wants to be a running team with a solid defense. He doesn’t prefer all the passing. I worried that Brees would not have a typical big year because they added horses to the backfield and their defense was improving. Well, here we are…

Brees usually has 8+ games with 300+ yard passing in a season but he has just one through 6 games right now. He’s on pace for the lowest pass attempts in a season in his Saints career (488 pace/30.5 per game). Over the past three games/their three wins, Brees has averaged 224.7 yards passing per game.

He’s not losing skill…he’s losing opportunities, willingly.

 

 -- The Saints defense has been strong for fantasy the past three weeks. Ahead, they face two rookie QBs (Hundley-Trubisky) then Winston and Tyrod. Possibly, 4 useful weeks. However, most will not believe and by the time they do…the schedule turns ugly with WAS-LAR-CAR-ATL-NYJ-ATL to finish out.

 

Snap Counts of Interest…

59 = M Thomas

37 = Ginn

26 = Coleman

21 = Snead

 

47 = Ingram

30 = Kamara

 

46 = Fells

41 = Ebron

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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