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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk7: Bucs v. Bills

October 27, 2017 3:09 PM
October 27, 2017 3:00 PM

I can’t figure out the Tampa Bay Bucs. I’m partially jaded because I think Jameis Winston is a highly overrated QB and I cannot stand Dirk Koetter. They’ve lost three in a row but had chances to win all three…so, maybe they are good? However, a couple games this season they have been totally blown out right off the bat…and then added a bunch of garbage late to close the gap. I think they do well with no pressure…and the moment things get real, Winston fails…because he’s a bad QB. He’s not a ‘bust’ QB…just not that good…more bottom 10-12 in the league level.

Buffalo seemed to be the stronger team here, but Tampa Bay hung with them…and the Bucs took a 27-20 lead with around 3-minutes left. About two minutes later Buffalo got two scores and led 30-27…and held on to win it. How does Tampa Bay keep faltering? I think it’s the arrogant head coach and his sloppy QB…and so goes the leadership, so goes the franchise.

Tampa Bay can ‘right the ship’ by winning their next two games versus NFC South foes CAR-NO, lose one or both and the season starts getting away from them.

Buffalo might be headed to the playoffs. They’re good enough to get there but their schedule is unkind coming up…somewhat. The Bills are 4-2, and have games at LAC, at KC, and two with NE ahead. Let’s assume they lose all four…that’s 6 losses for the season – they can afford one other loss to get to 9-7, and I don’t know if the Bills are that rock solid. The need to avoid a let down ahead because they have little breathing room unless they knock off the Patriots in one of their two contests remaining with them.


Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- O.J. Howard (6-98-2/6) had his breakout game here but I’m not ready to believe he fantasy-worthy yet. He’s been a ghost all season and then had a couple moments in this game. He’s definitely moved from TE3 to TE2 with hope but this game is not signaling a move to TE1.

I don’t see OJH as a key part of this offense. They ran the same ‘trick’ play he scored his first TD on 4 weeks ago again in this game…and got another long, uncovered, untouched TD. I just don’t think they can keep ‘surprising’ other teams with Howard slipping out the other way unnoticed. I hope, I wish…but I don’t see it.

You’re not crazy for redraft adding him as a TE2 to sit on and see what happens. He’s talented enough to be a TE1, but I don’t think there is enough action left after Cam Brate (6-60-0/9) and Mike Evans to sustain Howard in 2017. I’m not sensing the Bucs are ‘going there’ yet with OJH, from just watching the tape.


 -- I cannot deny Jameis Winston (32-44 for 384 yards, 3 TD/1 INT) is throwing for a lot of yards, and maybe he will all season. The Bucs are constantly down in games and throwing a lot…and much of the action is coming against soft, prevent defense moments. Whatever it is – it’s working fine for fantasy. Heck, Blake Bortles led the league in TD passes one season with similar circumstances.

Sometimes fantasy isn’t about the best QB…but the one who is decent and sees the most prevent-ish defenses in deficits.

Winston is 17-21 as a starter with a 60.2% completion percentage and 60 TDs/37 INTs for his career.

He’s 3-6 with 15 TD/10 INT and under 60% completions in his last 9 starts. I don’t see him ‘getting better’ at all.

Jameis Winston is nothing like the QB he’s made out to be. We’re three years into this now…Dak Prescott has lapped him several times for career performance – yet, I bet most NFL people would take Winston over Dak today. Thus the media reflects it (or vice-versa). Thus, fantasy analysts push Winston and downplay Prescott…thus, Dak is available in shockingly reasonable deals this week, as I have been mentioning.


 -- Fantasy analysts like Tyrod Taylor (20-33 for 268 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) in a pinch as well…but that’s 2016 thinking. Tyrod has thrown for 196.3 yards per game, 1.0 TDs/0.33 INTs per game with a Buffalo-years low 29.0 yards rushing and NO rushing TDs. Tyrod has been a leader in rushing TDs in the past…not this season. Stone Cold Sean McDermott has either dialed him back or Tyrod has dialed himself back as a runner.

Tyrod is the #17 fantasy QB in PPG through Week 7.


 -- Deonte Thompson (4-107-0/4) had a great debut for the Bills. I didn’t see anything shocking or upbeat here except Thompson is a solid #4-5 WR to have for your team. He got open late for a 40+ yard pass that helped get the Bills into a quick score to tie the game late, and eventually win. I don’t think you can trust any Bills WR with Tyrod Taylor.

For more proof on Tyrod…just look at Zay Jones (2-17-0/9) one of the best WRs from this draft class having one of the worst statistical years you could imagine. He is starting and playing the most snaps of any Bills’ WR but the production is shockingly awful…32 targets this year and just 7 catches, can you imagine 7 of 32 targets caught, unreal?

I’m a Zay fan, so I take extra interest in watching him week-to-week…most of the throws he is getting are uncatchable. He’s also being used a deep ball guy, mostly…when he really would be sweet as a short-medium workhorse on timing routes in small windows. Tyrod’s not that kinda QB. Zay is going to be little to get excited about until a QB change happens in 2018.

I will say this…Tyrod is trying to get he and Zay going (9 targets in this one). There’s going to be a game in the next few weeks where Zay has his breakout. And then you’ll be interested, and I will say, “No.”

Jordan Matthews (2-10-0/3) is their best WR and Tyrod barely can complete passes to him. WRs like Matthews and Jones are wasted on Tyrod, but someday you’ll see the ‘genius’ of this WR pairing by McDermott in 2018-2019…if he finds the right QB.


 -- Doug Martin (20-49-0, 2-31-0/3) looks fine to me…better than fine. Tampa doesn’t have a great run blocking unit but Martin usually finds a way to thrive regardless. I like the dipping fantasy valuation on Martin…people don’t really like/love him. I think he’s a great RB2 value who has RB1 aspirations and RB1 potential with the schedule ahead. He’s a rare RB that has the full workload anymore…that’s worth something these days.


 -- We’re keeping an eye on Bills rookie 5th-round pick LB Matt Milano (5 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1PD/INT). He seems to be in the right place at the right time – and is a true throwback, ‘wrap ‘em up’ tackler.

6’0”/223, 4.67 40-time, 24 bench reps, no three-cone on file pre-Draft.

58 tackles, 17.5 TFLs. 6.5 sacks, 3 PDs in 2015 as a junior for Boston College.

3.7 tackles per game the past three weeks filling in for Ramon Humber.



Snap Counts of Interest…

55 = Zay Jones

55 = Jordan Matthews

27 = Holmes

21 = Deonte Thompson


47 = Matt Milano (65%)


51 = O.J. Howard

38 = Cam Brate


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>