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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk7: Jags v. Colts

Date:
October 25, 2017 3:34 PM
October 25, 2017 3:30 PM

When you see a matchup like this on paper ahead of time and think – Jacksonville is going to kill the Colts, maybe even shut them out…it rarely happens that way. In this game, it’s exactly what happened. Everything you thought was going to happen…happened.

The Colts are terrible and will probably not win a game the rest of the season and Andrew Luck is not coming back.

Jacksonville holds on to a tie for 1st place with Tennessee and officially cements its status as the best defense in the NFL. They have held four of their first seven opponents to under 10 points in the game. The schedule is setting up for a five-game win streak post-BYE with CIN-LAC-CLE-ARI-IND. Looking at the schedule overall, it’s a 10-6 final record at worst. The Jags are beyond a shadow of a doubt headed to the playoffs.

After this BYE week, you start the Jags DST every week the rest of the season without blinking. They are going wire-to-wire as the top DST in fantasy. You should use this BYE week to try to trade for them, as crazy as that sounds, trading for a DST…look at the schedule – it’s gold.

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Here’s the thing about Marlon Mack (5-26-0, 4-40-0/6)…he’s starting to get used like Alvin Kamara…maybe even better. And you know how bonkers people are for Kamara…

Robert Turbin is done for the year. Frank Gore is aging. Mack could be a shock RB1 in PPR ahead. Yes, I said RB1…I also said ‘shock’. Not assured. I say this not because he is a great RB and will take 15+ carries as Gore watches as a replaced starter. I mean that as he plays on a team with a terrible offense/QB and is the only spark out of the backfield – just a simple screen and BAM. He’s a threat for yards every time he gets the ball…and it’s a simple pass even Jacoby Brissett can complete, usually.

In this game, he caught 4 passes and dropped two of them…one bad, the other not an easy catch. The bad drop…likely a 10+ yard play easy. Mack was a hair away from 6 catches for 50+ yards and then there would be an even bigger buzz this week.

I’d chase Mack in redraft trades right now if there are deals to be had. He trades as a rookie-beloved guy but still ‘Colts’…so like an RB2-2.5, unless your trade partner is nuts for him. I think his floor is PPR RB2.5 and the upside is RB1-1.5 as he gets 5-7+ carries and 5+ targets per game on a bad team looking to the future.

 

 -- Most exciting moment for me in this game – Keelan Cole’s (2-64-0/3) early game 52-yard catch on a deep ball. Not just the event, but the spectacle – week by week Cole has moved from skittish rookie back to that confident upstart rookie from the preseason. He made this grab evading his cover guy with a savvy comeback move and grabbed it with confidence, and a smile after.

I swear, sometimes I see poor man’s or regular man’s Antonio Brown here. He’s a sleeper candidate to be the best WR from this draft down the road…but has the issue of this all-run offense and weak QB. You’ll be seeing Cole prominently on the upcoming Dynasty Stash reports. I don’t think we’ll be able to use him for FF 2017…but, he is getting better…

 

 -- Out of nowhere, T.J. Yeldon (9-122-1, 2-13-0/2) was active and had a 100+ yard game. That takes the edge off hoarding Chris Ivory (17-47-1) for Leonard Fournette owners. Who knows who will matter if Fournette goes down? I still say it’s Ivory.

Corey Grant (6-8-0, 1-28-0/1) caught a nice set-up screen pass and just glided downfield for 28 yards. The Jags could get 100+ yards a game from Grant on 4-5 screen passes but that’s too much success for them. We have to make things more complicated by telegraphing runs every play. My bad for even suggesting it. Carry on.

 

 -- Are we going to get our money back on Jacoby Brissett (22-37 for 200 yards, 0 TD/0 INT)? Not me, but the public…

Is there anyone in football analysis not in love with this guy? They have been jamming him down your throat for weeks. Why? Because Bill Parcells mentored him and Bill Belichick drafted him (and gave him away). That’s good enough for the sheep. Colin Cowherd has called him a franchise-like QB several times. Six starts this season and he has 3 TD passes and 3 INTs…0.5 TD passes per game. He has a 2-5 career record with narrow wins over CLE and SF…a.k.a. combined 0-14 teams. What evidence does anyone see that Brissett even belongs in this league…much less a starter…much less a franchise QB?

Because Brissett cannot accumulate TD passes against even the easiest defenses…your T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief stock is minda worthless and Jack Doyle is mostly hopeless for 2017.

Doyle is his guy if you’re wondering…

5.6 rec. (7.6 targets), 43.2 yards, 0.20 TDs per game = Doyle with Brissett as the full starter this season.

4.0 rec. (7.0 targets), 75.8 yards, 0.17 TDs per game = Hilton w/ Brissett

 

 -- Jags DL Yannick Ngakoue (4 tackles, 2.5 sacks) is quietly one of the best rushers/sack-getters in the NFL. 6.5 sacks this season…on a pace for 14.9 sacks this season. He has 8.5 sacks in his last 9 games. 10.5 sacks in his last 14 games.  

We had good grades on Ngakoue and thought he’d be a sleeper for the NFL but we never saw this coming.

 

 -- Colts LB Antonio Morrison (13 tackles) is a terrible ILB in my book, but he’s starting due to mass injuries for a team that has teams running at them constantly. He’s working for IDP…8.2 tackles per game the past five games. Tackles counts in those games: 7-7-7-7-13.

 

Snap Counts of Interest…

32 = Mack

22 = Gore

13 = Josh Ferguson (wow, I didn’t even know!)

 

50 = Hurns

47 = M. Lee

41 = Keelan Cole

 

38 = Ivory

27 = Yeldon

08 = Grant

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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