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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk7: Jets v. Dolphins

Date:
October 26, 2017 2:28 PM
October 26, 2017 2:22 PM

Is there a charity drive going on to give the Dolphins wins? I mean, a missed game-winning FG by LAC on opening day. Matt Cassel emergency starting their Week 5 game. Whatever it was that happened Week 6 with the Falcons losing a 17-0 lead and this game where the Jets were cruising 28-14 into the 4th quarter, then the Jets collapsed and topped it off with a Josh McCown throwing the most inexplicable interception in NFL history.

28-28 with 0:45 left and backed up around their own 15-yard line…you assumed maybe the Jets take a knee, or maybe run the ball and see if they got big yards before going the knee route. Instead, McCown falls backwards and tried to throw a pass across the field to the left sideline where no one was open and his flutter ball was intercepted by a defender who could have called a fair catch on it because it hung in the air so long as he awaited to sntach it – the turnover set the Dolphins up within FG-range, and they did kick the late three-pointer to come away with a 17-point 4th quarter win.

It will be traced back and known as the moment Todd Bowles was fired in the executive suites, but they won’t tell him about it for a few months.

The Dolphins are the worst 4-2 team in the history of football…they should be 0-6, legitimately. The Jets aren’t the worst, and if they would have won this game they would have some playoff life over the next few weeks, but instead…J-E-T-S.

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

*Not a lot to discuss that’s fresh from this game, but here goes…

 -- All the Kenny Stills (6-85-2/9) hysteria this week, I get it. It’s a BYE week, choices are limited. Hell, I’m excited about Marquise Goodwin – just in time for him to have two catches for 19 yards on 3 targets this week…I’m sure of it.

Here’s the thing about Stills that worries me a touch… it seemed like the Dolphins decided that this game warranted blind throws to Stills downfield at all costs. I know that seems like a stupid statement, but hold on a second I’m about to be semi-brilliant…

Both Jay Cutler and Matt Moore were just heaving passes to Stills deep whether he was open or not – like they robotically were told to do so. Anytime in trouble, just heave it to Stills. It’s possible 90% of his 9 targets were the QBs throwing off their back foot and airmailing passes to Stills for a hookup or DPI. One of his catches was a bizarre 30+ yard non-catch/catch, but the defender and Stills crashed to the ground and the ball bobbled between them and charitably landed in Stills lap/stomach as he hit the ground and he kept hold of it…not a real catch, per se. It pushed his output higher, more attractive to waiver seekers this week.

Now, who cares about throwing passes up for grabs to Stills…don’t we want that for our fantasy guys? Yes, we do. My concern is – is this just a plan against the Jets? The Dolphins have played the Jets twice this season and went heavy Stills both times…10 targets Week 2 and 9 targets Week 7. Is there a matchup they’re trying to expose? In all his other games, here are Stills’ target counts: 5-3-2-4. This week, not facing the Jets it’s very possible Miami does what they always do each week…run the ball 20+ times with Jay Ajayi, for limited ypc, throw occasionally not to Jarvis Landry and somehow let the other team gift them the game. It’s worked 4 of 6 times this year.

Stills always has a shot at a TD each week, he’s great in the red zone…but otherwise, he’s just a medium-deep guy you’re hoping the illustrious Matt Moore plants one on him. If DeVante Parker is back…Stills may fade back to 1-2 catches, per usual. You have to hope he scores a TD because otherwise, he’s usually pretty irrelevant.

 

 -- Austin Seferian-Jenkins (3-21-1/5) scored another TD…three games in a row. I keep saying it…because it’s true – I see nothing special happening here. He’s been the most vanilla TE among the TE1 group to date. I think he’s going to fall hard and fast from the TE1 group over the next few weeks.

On a scale of 0-10, he has a weird ‘6-7’ trade value. People seem to really be cozy with him. I’d sell him off, a great 2nd player in a deal for you to send two things to get a great ‘one’ player.ASJ is the fraud 2nd player in a deal that creates the appearance of value for those struggling at TE. I’d rather have Tyler Kroft for the ROS.

 

 -- Bilal Powell started this game, for a play. Then Elijah McGuire came in on the next play…and then Matt Forte entered. But Forte worked most of the game as the primary. I’m not sure what mystery Bowles is trying to create but Forte is the only RB that matters here, and PPR only. The past two games, Forte has 8 and 5 catches (6.5 rec. per game)…this since coming back from injury. He’s the only Jets RB that matters now…barely matters.

 

 -- Josh McCown (17-27 for 209 yards, 3 TD/1 INT) has 2-2-3 TD passes in his last three games but the nice run is coming against garbage pass defenses – CLE-NE-MIA. Won’t be as sweet versus ATL-BUF the next two weeks.

 

 -- Matt Moore (13-21 for 188 yards, 2 TD/1 INT) is better than Jay Cutler, but that’s because Cutler is awful. He’s a low-end NFL QB.

 

 -- Darron Lee (11 tackles, 2 TFLs) has been ripped by the media but after that firestorm died down, Lee has averaged 7.5 tackles and 1.0 TFLs the last 4 games. He’s a good IDP LB.

 

 -- I was watching rookie DE Charles Harris (3 tackles) in this game. He caught my attention with the energy/anticipation he was moving to the ball. He’s been quiet/not playing much but logged 34 snaps (61% of the D snaps).

 

Snap Counts of Interest…

28 = Forte

21 = Powell

07 = McGuire

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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