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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk8: 49ers v. Eagles

Date:
November 1, 2017 12:36 AM
November 1, 2017 12:01 AM

I don’t think anyone was shocked to see the Eagles crush the 49ers here. The Eagles are a good team and the 49ers are barely a functioning team…SF wasn’t good to begin with but they’ve been ripped to shreds by injuries.

The best thing about doing this recap/analysis right now is – we’ve learned both teams made some attention-getting trades. I’ll probably spend more time on the trades, and Jimmy Garoppolo in particular, rather than looking over this game too much. Nothing that shocking or revelatory happened in this game.

The 49ers are 0-8, and I don’t think they care if they go 0-16. Actually, I think they hope they do. If they don’t beat either ARI or NYG the next two weeks…it’s probably on to 0-16.

The Eagles time of grace from God is about to end, and we’ll see how they handle it. If you’re an Eagles fan…you better pray they beat Denver this week. If they don’t and fall to 7-2, then they go on a BYE and then have four of 5 games on the road. Two of their final 7 with Dallas. Four of their final 7 with legit Super Bowl contenders (at SEA, at LAR, 2x with Dallas).

If the Eagles lose this week, they are on a fast track to fall to 8-5 with three games left to go, one of those with Dallas with Elliott back. The Eagles are the Belle of the Ball now, but they may need to scramble into the playoffs in the end. If Philly blows through the road game nightmare ahead and wins 1-2 of the games I think they’ll lose – I eat my foot and apologize. They’ve lost their top OL and LB…and are a good-not-great team, to begin with. This could come apart suddenly. Or so I think in my head…

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

Let’s go through the game notes first and then turn to the trades to wrap it up.

 -- I advocated for Marquise Goodwin (0-0-0/3) as a deep sleeper/flyer last week, and that was rewarded with a sudden pop up on injury reports later in the week and then a goose egg for the game. That about wraps it up for an analogy on how this fantasy season seems to be going…

All I’ll say is – he was hurt, and when things got out of hand they didn’t push him, logically. All the facts remain – and Jimmy Garoppolo improves the outlook, potentially.

Not a must-keep or anything, but don’t nail his coffin shut yet.

 

 -- Carlos Hyde’s (12-25-0, 4-22-0/9) numbers are crashing. He’s still getting good touches (9 targets in this game + 12 carries) but this O-Line is a disaster and lost its top guy last week. Hyde’s YPC in games the past four games: 1.4, 2.2, 4.9, 2.1.

Hyde has no blocking. No QB threat to open things up. And he’s sharing touches with Matt Breida (5-17-0, 4-39-1/6). RB2 at best is all you can project here with Hyde. It might change with Garoppolo ahead. Still, the O-Line is an issue no matter.

 

 -- In the past three weeks, Alshon Jeffrey (2-62-1/8) has faced wounded SF, Washington minus Josh Norman, and Carolina minus Kuechly and Coleman (not that they’d cover him but Coleman helps). In those three games, Jeffrey has caught 8 passes on 24 targets. Are you kidding me…against mostly backup CBs?

Jeffrey has faded away for about two years now, but people are still excited about him…kinda…because the Eagles are a neat story and everyone loves Carson Wentz. If you have Jeffrey you have to try to move him for WR2 value if possible and move onto to something more interesting at WR. He scored a TD this past week so that helps with the valuation.

Good luck with Denver, Dallas, Chicago, Seattle, Rams, NYG the next six games…he’s going to get killed.

 

 -- Make sure to see my ‘Trick or Treat’ special note on Trent Taylor on 10/31/2017.

 

 -- Philly LB Mychal Kendricks (7 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 1 PD) is in for a key role with Jordan Hicks done for the year. Kendricks used to be an IDP great and then got buried with the new regime, but has been terrific when given a chance this year…all the way back to the preseason where he was picking off passes left and right.

With more playing time the last two weeks – 7 tackles this game, 17 tackles the prior.

 

OK, the trades…

 -- First, this game is a great example of the Eagles run philosophy – don’t rely on one guy or two…and mix it up every week.

Wendell Smallwood (1-5-0, 1-9-0/2) got good touches the prior week, and then go stiffed here. Corey Clement (10-54-0, 0-0-0/1) got more touches after getting stiffed recently by Kenjon Barner.

LeGarrette Blount (16-48-0, 1-4-0/1) gets the most carries, normally…and he has all of two rushing TDs this season. He’s on a pace for 4 rushing TDs. He’s not anything special here either.

Enter Jay Ajayi

I’m not sure Jay Ajayi is the most talented RB on this team…or even the 3rd most talented RB on this team. He’s OK, highly overrated from a couple big games out of nowhere last season but then settled into being a dud every week, mostly. He’s a stiff runner, a LeGarrette Blount-like runner only stiffer…and he’s a terrible receiver and has virtually no agility…and a degenerative knee issue.

No matter what happens in any given week, the following week it will be different with the Philly backfield. You can’t count on any of them and Ajayi added just makes it weirder. If Blount was a TD master before arriving to Philly and is on pace for 4 rushing scores this year…what do think will happen with Ajayi, who has rushed for 1 TD in his last 12 games?

I trade everyone in this backfield if you own them.

 

 -- Jimmy Garoppolo to the 49ers for a 2nd-round pick…

Two thoughts unrelated, kinda:

1: The Patriots could have gotten more, but I agree with Colin Cowherd – Belichick would never trade Garoppolo to the Browns. Not for Jimmy’s sake, nor to help out the franchise that fired him. Another ‘Curse of the Browns’ moment.

He is friendly with Kyle Shanahan in a dot-connection way…so, he did him a favor. And something Colin did not think of – I think Belichick was looking out for Garoppolo and sent him to one of the only real offensive minds in football.

This is Belichick doing the right thing for a lot of people…and F the Browns, once again.

2: I also agree with Cowherd – this was the signal that Bill Belichick is going out with Tom Brady after 2018 or 2019. He’s not worried about the Patriots’ QB of the future or any other position of the future, per se. He traded all his draft picks to win now…because he won’t be around much longer.

Don’t bet heavy on Patriots’ fantasy assets long-term…this team will collapse the moment Bill hits his sailboat full time. I wouldn’t be surprised if 2017 was his final year. But 2018 is more likely.

As far as Garoppolo to SF for fantasy…

It would be ludicrous for the 49ers to start Garoppolo right away. What’s the rush? The perfect set up is three weeks of prep. Week 9 sit, Week 10 sit, Week 11 BYE, Week 12 – enjoy vs. Seattle with this wounded SF unit. At Chicago is no gem either Week 13. Weeks 14-15 are favorable with HOU-TEN…and then forget it with Week 16 vs. Jacksonville.

In redraft, you get two possible starts…Weeks 14-15. Who knows if those two weeks would be worth it?

Dynasty is a whole other thing.

You have to believe this is a version of Jared Goff finding Sean McVay. Garoppolo + Shanahan. There are only two real offensive geniuses in the NFL…guys who have made lemonade out of mediocre QBs/offenses as coordinators. Atlanta had the top offense last season, and McVay is on his way to capturing that title in his debut in L.A.

All the other ‘good’ NFL coach’s genius extends as far as their QB’s personal talent and if their O-Line holds up. Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson have given their coaches a career they would have never had without them…not even close. Tony Gonzalez, on Colin Cowherd’s show today, was asked a question about coach’s egos and systems, etc. and basically Gonzalez said 80%+ of the coaches over his time were ridiculous preaching their system and following their system rigidly and only wanting to deal with players who fit the system. He underestimated at 80%, in my estimation.

If you play in a 6pts per pass TD league and if you have 300+ yard game bonuses…then Goff and Garoppolo are the future. In 4pts per pass TD leagues, it’s good but not as valuable. The running QBs start to matter equal/more in 4pts per TD pass leagues with no bonuses.

The runners…there are more and more coming into the league. Watson. Wentz. Mariota. College is dumping great QB talent into the NFL…Dak, Carr, Trubisky, Luck, Wilson. There are more on the way. We’re all happy that Jimmy G. finally found a home, and your dynasty stash finally paid off. Well, it has…but we have to be mindful that QBs, for fantasy, are popping up all over at a pace never seen before in the history of the NFL. The new wave of QB talent is just starting.

I think Mitchell Trubisky is better than all of them, but he’s stuck with John Fox…and then who knows in 2018. At least with Goff and now Garoppolo, I know they’re paired up with people who will help/support/build around them.

Before I scouted Trubisky, I thought Garoppolo, on tape, was the best pure college QB I ever scouted. Now, he’s going to finally get a chance to start and shine, and work with not a Mike Zimmer or Jeff Fisher or Hue Jackson…but a coach dedicated to the offense. It has to mean fantasy success ahead, no? I would say Garoppolo is a QB1 for 2018.

If I was in a dynasty startup and I had to draft right now, 6pts per pass TD, no bonuses, start one QB and I had to draft from Goff, Trubisky, Garoppolo, Prescott, Mariota, Luck, Wentz, Wilson…who would I draft for a league starting 2018?

My process…

I’d drop Wentz from the discussion because he is nowhere near the QB the other six names are.

I would then drop Mariota from my list because he’s just not as good QB talent as the others, and I question Tennessee’s thought process as an organization for years. Hiring Mike Mularkey, really? For fun, let’s say Chip Kelly is hired for the Titans today…if so, Mariota is back on the list. But Chip Kelly wants to run the ball primarily…so, kick Mariota back off.

I’d next drop Russell Wilson, who I love, but has the worst coaching staff in this group...a staff that will be there in 2018+.

Andrew Luck will be 29 years old next season, so that + all his injuries pushes him out.

Dak, Goff, Trubisky, Garoppolo remain.

 

This is tough. It’s like asking me which one of my kids I love more.

Dak is going to have a future built around him soon, and Dallas will have a great team around him. Plus, Dak is already proved he’s a fantasy stud.

Goff is Brady-like and has the true Wizard of offense for a coach.

Garoppolo…I haven’t seen enough of and I think I like Kyle Shanahan but I’m not 100% sold on him yet.

Trubisky is the best I’ve seen, and he can run the ball much more than people realize.

I’d have to next kick Garoppolo out just because I don’t know how any of this is going to work. I assume ‘great’ but we’ll see. I haven’t had the benefit of seeing yet.

I’d have to kick Goff out next because he’s next-Brady, but we’re talking the best of the best here…and splitting hairs – Goff cannot run for FF points like the other guys. The extra 1-2 PPG matters.

Trubisky or Dak?

 

I don’t have to answer because this is about Garoppolo and I’m just processing where I’d value Garoppolo for dynasty. The answer = highly.

Most fantasy owners, non-FFM, that possess Garoppolo…they’re excited by this news but I don’t think they’d value him as highly as we do. You’ll have to pay, but he’s acquirable. If you don’t have 1-2 of the QBs I’ve just mentioned already…it makes sense to go pay to get ‘your guy’ for the future.

If it were an NFL question…I take Trubisky, no debate. And that’s no slight on Dak. I just think Trubisky is the next Aaron Rodgers…only better. I just don’t know if and when he gets the same support. For fantasy, I’d take Dak because I know he’s done it already. He has the better organization. And I use him confidently opening day 2018. With Trubisky…I don’t know the coach or what WRs he’ll have.

This mock draft is subject to change the second I see Garoppolo start in a few weeks and drops 300+ and 3 TDs versus Seattle and I lose my mind.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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