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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk9: Bengals v. Jags

Date:
November 9, 2017 8:05 PM
November 9, 2017 7:55 PM

I don’t think Cincinnati is a bad team…not great, but not bad. They just playing the wrong teams at the wrong time in the wrong places. They are 3-3 in their last 6 games since making an O-C change. ‘Quality’ losses.

A loss to Aaron Rodgers at Green Bay…in OT…a game they near-dominated for 50+ minutes. They lost to the Steelers at Pittsburgh and then here losing to the Jags at Jacksonville. Those are strong playoff teams (GB with Rodgers) to face on the road. Cincy didn’t get humiliated in any of those matchups…they just didn’t have enough horses. Their three wins in that same span -- they beat Buffalo when the Bills were hot. Dismantled Cleveland and snuck by Indy. Cincy is a C+ team that looks like and is treated like a ‘D’ in the public.

The Bengals played OK here but the Jaguars are just too good. Once the Jags got a lead to sit on and A.J. Green got tossed it was a bunch of Cincy spinning its wheels trying to get back into it…to no avail.

Don’t be surprised if the Bengals smack the Titans upside the head this week. I think the Bengals could beat Tennessee and thus spark a three-game winning streak and jump to 6-5 and have sudden playoff life. This Week 10 Titans game is basically ‘the season’ for Cincy…falling to 3-6 is terminal.

I don’t think Cincy can win three in a row (TEN-DEN-CLE) but given the opponents, it is not out of the question. The Computer is pushing them as 6-10/7-9 to finish…which I need for my over/under win total bet on them at 8-8.5 wins (took the under).

If the Jags win one more game in their next 8 games…then I book the ‘over’ win total bet with them. That money is as good as mine.

The Jaguars did what they do – they got up on Cincy and sat on them with that ace defense. How good are the L.A. Rams (everything comes back the Rams)? The Jaguars have been beating up everything in sight of late…but the Rams came into Jacksonville a few weeks ago and manhandled them, scoring 27 points and bullying the bully. The Jags have allowed 9-27-0-7 for points the past 4 games…the 27 to the Rams.

The schedule is very friendly for Jacksonville from here. Winning their next 8 in a row would not shock me. The Computer sees an 11-5 finish easy…and an AFC South title, and possible 1st-round BYE.

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I’m not a big Marqise Lee (8-75-1/12) guy in general, he’s OK, but I’m learning to like him for fantasy right now. A definite WR2 in PPR. He’s like a poor man’s T.Y. Hilton in this offense. The thing of it is, in this game, Lee dropped (tough catches) two passes for another 40+ yards…he was on the verge of an amazing output game. He’s been rolling since Week 2…

7.1 FF PPG (11.7 PPR) on 4.6 rec. (7.7 targets), 62.6 yards, 0.14 TDs per game = Lee in Weeks 2-9

 

What’s more exciting is his activity is growing as the season unfolds…

9.7 FF PPG (15.4 PPR) on 5.7 catches (9.3 targets), 76.7 yards, 0.33 TDs per game = Lee in Weeks 7-9

 

Teams are so focused on the Jags running that WRs are wide-open when they throw, usually. Lee seems to be Blake Bortles’ guy for sure.

 

 -- Marqise Lee seems to be Bortles #1, but quickly becoming a #2 is our guy Keelan Cole (3-47-0/5). He’s not just ‘open because he was forgotten in coverage’ guy and just sees a target or two in games anymore. He’s starting to get purposeful throws and making confident catches. Earlier in the season he looked lost and had some drops…now he’s becoming very reliable.

His one-handed catch in this game was a key 3rd & long conversion on a pass sailed so high it probably would have been picked by the safety laying back if Cole didn’t sky and full extension yanked it down for the grab.

You can find him surprisingly, maybe, quite high on our dynasty stash list.

 

 -- Tyler Kroft (2-79-0/2) made two terrific runs after the catch in this game. Why he had only 2 targets, I do not know…some of it staying in to block the Jags pressure.

Kroft is a lot better, smoother than I gave him credit for. You can find him very nicely ranked in our dynasty stash reports as well.

 

 -- Another week, another Bengals re-watch, another same exact Joe Mixon (13-31-1, 3-15-0/4) performance = underwhelming results.  

I have to say, I’m getting a touch worried. I realize it’s not a great Cincy O-Line…not at all. But, if you’re a mega-star…you gotta do something. You have to make lemonade more often than this. I see ‘wow’ moments from Mixon…just not enough of them at this stage.

Or maybe my expectations are too high? My fantasy-lust too wanting?

Mixon has as many 20+ yard runs as Leonard Fournette this season…2. The problem is among the top 40 rushers, Mixon is at the bottom in yards per carry with Jonathan Stewart (2.9 ypc).

I’m still pro-Mixon but I’m starting to tug at my collar a little bit. Come on, kid…show me something exciting. Announce your arrival!

 

 -- Chris Ivory (20-70-0) is a rare top 40 rusher this season who does not have a run of 20 yards or longer. However, he is the clear #2 RB to Fournette, the proper handcuff and enough already with T.J. Yeldon.

 

 -- Marcel Dareus (3 tackles) had sudden bursts of speed and effort when I watched him in this game. In his Jags debut. Just what the Jags needed…more high-end defensive talent.

 

 -- Deep sleeper kicker play? How about Josh Lambo (3/3 FG, 2/2 XP)?

The Jags are TOTALLY fine with a drive stalling and taking a field goal and letting the defense do its thing. In his first two games with Jacksonville, Lambo is 5/5 on FGs and 5/5 on XPs.

In his three NFL seasons, Lambo has been a pretty nice kicker on FGs 1-39 yards…34/35 (97.1%). He’s been shaky from 40-49…18/25(72.0%). He’s shown 50+ yard range…making 4/5 FGs from 50+ his rookie year. He’s 1/1 from 50+ for the Jags.

 

 -- How in the world A.J. Green (1-6-0/2) is not suspended for this week is beyond me.

You’ve seen the replay…he comes from behind and grabs Jalen Ramsey around the neck and slams/gently pulls him to the ground, and then throws a punch at his head/helmet like an idiot. The first takedown was light, and the punch was wimpy, but then he grabbed Ramsey again from behind and re-slammed him down…that’s where he for sure crossed the line. Not according to the NFL, apparently.

I would be furious as a defensive back. If a DB hits a WR hard they’re getting flagged 50% of the time, but the WRs can come up DBs and go for a Stone Cold Stunner or Zig-Zag move, from behind, and throw a punch…and nothing. In fact, Ramsey did nothing in retaliation and he got thrown out too. The guy who cheap shotted and they victim who did nothing got the same penalty…ejected from the game.

I don’t know what constitutes a catch in the NFL…nor a suspension, apparently.

 

Snap Counts of Interest…

71 = Hurns

66 = Mq. Lee

49 = Keelan Cole

 

39 = Ivory

35 = Yeldon

06 = Corey Grant

 

28 = Mixon

11 = Gio

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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