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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk9: Broncos v. Eagles

Date:
November 8, 2017 6:10 PM
November 8, 2017 6:00 PM

And then there is the bane of my existence…the Philadelphia Eagles. In a year of record handicapping efforts, form our week-to-week Blazing Five, to ‘Best Bets’ to the over/under win totals bet/picked back in May…I’m having, potentially, the greatest run of wagering in the history of mankind – except anything having to do with the Eagles.

The Computer tends to bet against them every week…and that’s been a failure. One of my top 3 over/under win total plays for 2017…8-8.5 wins under for Philly. One more win and I’m done. Cincy under, Rams-Bears-Jags-Bills ‘over’ all going to make up for it and then some. Still, Philly runs my perfection.

Why Eagles why?

And still, I don’t get it. I don’t see ‘it’ with Philly. I get that they are my Atlanta Falcons/2016…my Carolina/2015. The thing about those past teams I was always wrong about is – they sucked before ‘the year’ and then sucked again after.

Sometimes the schedule and the circumstances just fall right but I’m not giving into this Eagles team until I do see ‘it’. Seeing ‘it’, it is all I got. It’s what my experience has led me to. It’s what I’ve built part of the business on. The Computer doesn’t see ‘it’ and I don’t see ‘it’. Yet.

So, you’re going to have to put up with me questioning ‘it’…my faithful Eagles fans. It’s healthy when I question ‘it’.

My last stand might be Week 11. They lose to Dallas to fall to 8-2, with CHI, at SEA, at LAR after that…then Dallas is coming to get them, maybe. If they beat Dallas…it’s mostly over. I’ve watched and studied both of these teams all year. No one can convince me Dallas is not the better team…but Dallas could be on the ropes with a loss Week 11. We’ll see. We’ll see what The Computer says next week.

Denver…’it’ is over. Whatever they had going for them earlier in the season completely died out. This is a coaching issue. This is a player motivation and execution issue. This is a GM issue. I don’t fault Denver for struggling but they are getting embarrassed every week now. They have too much talent to get danced on for 50+ against Philly. That’s a coaching issue…and that issue is not going away.

Denver will quietly go 7-9 and have to decide whether to blow up everything and start over. They won’t. John Elway is too arrogant to do that in my opinion. He’ll try to spend his way to fixing it but he’s not going to admit a Vance Joseph error this early. If he does, and just rips the band-aid…I will apologize. I don’t think he’ll do it…but he has to be contemplating it. He’s watched a really good roster get pissed down the drain. I don’t see him as one to ‘settle’ for mediocrity for very long.

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I’ve said it a few times already, but for the love of Jay Ajayi you have to trade Jay Ajayi (8-77-1) right now. His trade value will never be higher for the entire rest of his career than it is right now.

Did you see his long TD run?

A wide-open hole. Untouched. Ran like he was a carrying a cinder block down the field.

Watching Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams work before re-watching this game, and then watching Jamaal Charles, Devontae Booker, or Corey Clement in this game…and then Ajayi – it’s a joke. He’s not an NFL-starter talent. He’s going to be out of the league in like 2-3 years. Watching all those RBs and then slipping the Ajayi one good run in there among them is like feeding a pill to my dog…

Treat, eaten. Treat, eaten. Treat with a pill buried in it, into the mouth but then a funny look and the dog spits out the entire intruder. She knows the deal. I feel the same way when watching Jay Ajayi.

Watching Jay Ajayi feels like this for me… https://youtu.be/8PBMCgxIuYI

You have to trade Ajayi now. He’s in a timeshare…hell, Corey Clement (12-51-2, 1-15-1/1) just became a star du jour. Next week, he’ll have three carries for 7 yards and Kenyan Barner will have 50+ yards and a TD. Don’t trust Eagles’ RBs week-to-week…especially the worst one – Jay Ajayi.

And if you’re chasing Corey Clement…you’re insane. Trade that too in deeper dynasty leagues.

 

 -- And then there is the Broncos’ RB situation…all three backs are better than anyone on the Eagles, but play in a worse offense, with a weak O-Line and a dreadful head coach/game plan.

The Broncos are going to have pass the ball to RBs more. Their O-Line issues warrant it and being down in games does as well. Nothing seems to be working for Denver, so I keep speculating that Devontae Booker (6-21-0, 2-9-0/3) is going to get the push in a ‘change everything’ desperation.

It’s not a strong feeling or play, but could have value for the desperate ahead…if it pans out. Booker will never have the full workhorse load, just the majority share…and is more likely to see the passing game work if Denver goes heavier there.

This Denver team is so bad it may not matter at all.

They should just go ‘all in’ on Jamaal Charles (4-1-0, 4-23-0/4) for a game and see what happens but if you think Vance Joseph is going to work Charles you’re out of your mind.

 

 -- This was the best game I saw Demaryius Thomas (8-70-1/12) all year, hands down. Osweiler got him engaged early and often and Thomas showed that old spark. We pointed out the Osweiler-Thomas connection juice last week…it looks like it’s a thing for sure. WR1 status may be back…as long as Osweiler is QB.

 

 -- Will Brock Osweiler (19-38 for 208 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) be the QB for the rest of the year…or in Week 11? Probably not.

Once the season gets fully ‘away’ from Denver, and they get past the Patriots game, the Broncos will use the remainder of the season as a tryout for Paxton Lynch (unless he is too hurt).

That change is not going to be good for any Broncos offensive asset.

 

 -- A Broncos’ asset trying to poke through…Cody Latimer (2-51-0/3). He made two wonderful catches in this game. He is playing tough. Working special teams. He’s going to be a deep-deep sleeper ahead because he can be a #3 WR for Denver for the ROS…and he would have worked with Paxton Lynch a ton.

 

 -- Dynasty Stash top 10’er Trey Burton (2-41-1/4) got the late-notice start in this game and responded well. He just missed out on another big play in this game as well. If Ertz went down and out for some reason, Burton would be a TE1 for the ROS for sure.

If you own Ertz and you’re headed to the playoffs strong, or once you get there, you might grab Burton as your TE2 ‘handcuff’ because Ertz has been such a stud performer and you’d take a serious hit dropping from him to…who? Who better to replace him with than Ertz if something happened…rather the trolling the waiver wire or holding onto Austin Seferian-Jenkins, etc.

 

 -- Carson Wentz (15-27 for 199 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) is the better Cam Newton…the Cam everyone was looking for. He is a magician in the pocket, I cannot deny him that. I tried…and failed to do that.

Still, something just doesn’t feel right with him…with me ever saying “He’s elite.” I don’t see a great passer most downs. Put him on the run/on the loose and it’s neat. Sit in the pocket and survey…he’s not close to the other young QBs working NFL defenses. However, none of that matters if he just scrambles past all trouble.  

We all see Wentz having a great year…but 222-268-211-199 for passing yards the past 4 games. Under 250 yards passing five of his last 7. He isn’t piling it on. He’s been under 57% Comp Pct. In three of his last 4 games, four of his last 6. I still see erratic, but then I also see ‘wow’ when he’s dodging around and making plays.

However, aside from the yardage and accuracy -- he’s throwing for TDs like crazy.

I’m not against him anymore. I thought he’d be a ‘C’ QB, a possible ‘C-‘…but he’s definitely a ‘B’ QB but I don’t know if ‘A’ is ever going to happen. I don’t rule it out like I would have last year…but I still…I don’t know…

Something just doesn’t feel right. It’s not crazy to have doubt. I sullied Cam Newton his entire career, and then 2015 happened and everyone wanted to punch me…and then 2016 happened and all those people went back into hiding. A QB can have a great year and it isn’t ‘drop the mic’, lock it in forever.

 

 -- JWolfe turned me onto this one… IDP Vinny Curry (2 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 2 TFLs) is starting to percolate.

Last 5 games: 3.4 tackles, 0.60 sacks, 1.0 TFLs.

I had turned a bit of a blind eye to him. One to watch for those in need at DE for IDP.

Trouble ahead though…BYE, at DAL, CHI…so not very useful for the next three weeks.

 

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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