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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk9: Chiefs v. Cowboys

Date:
November 6, 2017 4:00 PM
November 6, 2017 3:55 PM

Think of the dumbest adult you know.

I’m not kidding. Take a moment and ponder who that is. Write their name down.

Not the person you dislike the most or does one thing you don’t understand. I mean truly the most clueless person you know. They could be absolute sweethearts but is a person you would not trust anything important in their keep. Someone you would never seek advice from. You may love them…but you know they’re not that bright. They have other gifts but ‘savvy’ is not one of them.

Now, take a second and think of some of the reasons why you chose them. What are some of their ‘greatest hits’ of being ignorant or foolish that you can recall?

Whoever the person was that you picked – they cannot be any stupider than NFL head coaches. I’m sure Andy Reid is a peach to sit at a buffet with but you have got to be kidding me with his NFL coaching and game planning.

I’m sure he knows X’s and O’s and how to set up the calisthenics and stuff…but no one could be as strategically stupid as he is, I’m sorry. You cannot watch Tyreek Hill (2-61-1/4) on that half-time miracle of individual talent play, and have had a front row seat to what Tyreek did in 2016 as a rookie, and have a front row seat to your offense sucking out loud against Dallas in this game…and you never think to force the ball to Tyreek Hill by any means necessary about every other play? Are you trying to lose? Are you just that dumb? Are you just that arrogant?

I’ve met a lot of dumb smart people, and so have you. I don’t say that as some kind of Ivy league school genius looking down on the simpletons. Honestly, I’m really not that smart. My metrics on player scouting and my BLAZING blazing five computer models (that went 5-0 again, 10-0 the last two weeks and 35-10 on the season)…you probably think I’m a math wizard with a bunch of complex algorithms. Sorry, to burst your bubble.

I’m just a simple guy who sees something that’s working and tracks it, tinkers with it and then tries to run with what’s working – if I can prove to myself something seems to be working I keep going in that direction and tracking it to make sure it’s still working day after day. I like success/results more than decoys and theories. I like players over playbooks.

As a simple guy, I would be screaming at everyone on my staff, if I were the Kansas City Chiefs head coach, to get the ball to Tyreek Hill as much as possible…when we were losing. It’s so simple. Because, maybe, he could do that thing where he miraculously runs through an entire defense and scores a TD…again. Like he did right before the half! Like he’s done multiple times in his short career. He’s the ultimate nuclear bomb. Why not go to that well?

Instead, as the Chiefs were flaming out to Dallas…we saw more screen passes to failing Kareem Hunt. Andy Reid also made sure to get the illustrious Charcandrick West involved in the late game comeback efforts…but not Hill.

You can’t be that dumb…and yet ‘Andy Reid Week 9’.

Because I’m a simple guy who observes and tracks this stuff for a living, trying to prosper off it…I know you (Andy Reid) are, obviously, that dumb. It would be dumb of me to look at your work in 2017 and not think you're dumb. ‘Dumb’ is a harsh, childish thing to say about another grown man. Hey, I make my living predicting players and coaches…and the ‘coaches’ part of the equation is becoming more and more of the consideration. I’ve studied the NFL maneuvers seriously for like about 10 years now. As a professional observationist, I can only reach one conclusion…I have to reach a conclusion, so I can more accurately predict what you’re going to do next week, next season…with your players and as a team for betting. You, sir…are a dumb head coach. Probably, the dumbest.

You’ve been handed a gift from God (Tyreek Hill), and you squander it like a fool. Don’t blame it on Alex Smith or the offensive coordinator. Andy Reid, you are to blame. And if you are one of the better coaches in the NFL, supposedly…then how dumb is everyone else not as good as you? You deserve every loss. Every disappointment from the fans. You’ve done it to yourself. You’re not the first or the last to be this ignorant (Mike Smith and Dirk Koetter, Atlanta years with Antone Smith I’m looking at you), or probably the worst ever. I just happen to have Tyreek Hill in a billion fantasy leagues (representing all of the FFM nation), so I’m very in tune with what you do with him every stinking snap…and I can only conclude you are dumb, and I have to assume that as a variable going forward.

I mean, I thought you weren’t that swift before, but this game takes the cake. This game is state’s evidence, our best evidence that you are truly terrible at what you do.

It’s like…have you ever attended a church and the pastor was not good at all? Like, not great at the public speaking and/or connection with the audience. No passion. You know ‘bad’ if you’ve seen ‘good’. A bad pastor knows the Bible. They know how to make the notes and prep for Sunday. They want to do a good job. Then they get up to the pulpit, start talking and put you to sleep. Just because you love and are knowledgeable on the subject doesn’t mean you can communicate it effectively in front of 15-500 people.

I know Andy Reid knows how to show up to the office and to the field and ‘be’ a coach…he just isn’t very good at it.

After a 5-0 start and taking the world by storm in 2017…KC has lost three of its last 4. They should’ve lost to Denver last week if not gifted the game by Trevor Siemian…and even then they struggled to separate from bad Denver. They should’ve lost to Washington earlier in the season, if not for several tragic in-game injuries that happened to the Redskins. In five of the Chiefs last 6 games, I’ve walked away thinking…”the Chiefs weren’t the better team here.” This is a 6-3 team that feels more 4-5/5-4 in reality.

Fortunately, for KC, they have a cake schedule the rest of the way. They have three NY games coming up, which should all be wins – at NYG, BUF, at NYJ. The Chiefs should book 10-11 wins easily by the end. However, I don’t think you can take anything for granted.

And then there is my pride and joy – the Dallas Cowboys. Not a dumb team. The best team in football…as I’ve maintained since early on the 2017 calendar.

The final score was 28-17, but really…Dallas mauled KC. The Tyreek TD before the half was a fluke that could happen more but doesn’t because Tyreek doesn’t get the ball. Penalties allowed KC their next score. The Chiefs normal offense versus the Dallas defense – no contest.

Dallas is 5-3 and has a tough schedule ahead. They’re likely to finish 10-6, but 11-12 wins isn’t out of the question…especially if Ezekiel Elliott is not suspended.

This was one of the best gut-check games of 2017. Would KC rise up and beat Dallas in Dallas…or at least put up a helluva fight? Nope. Dallas kicked their ass up and down the field for about 90% of this game…and thus reality happened. Dallas is great and Kansas City is ‘good’, ‘fake’ great.

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Well, what do we want to say with the Kareem Hunt (9-37-0, 4-24-0/5) hysteria?

The media went all-in on this guy right away, as they are want to do. I’m not sure why Hunt became their guy but I’d guess the great opening night of the 2017 NFL season made every man, woman, and child buy a ticket and got on the train without question. I had questions. I thought he was a sell extremely high…like top 3 asset in all of fantasy sell-off opportunity.

I was right.

After three weeks, people were pissing and moaning about missing out on him. Now, the past six weeks, he’s a weak RB2 week-to-week. The list of RBs outperforming Hunt the past 5-6 weeks is shocking. The media isn’t giving up easily. They went all-in. So, now every story is about the Chiefs needing to get him the ball more or differently. They ache and pine for this hot Hunt hand to not blow up in their face and every story will be angled to support their premise.

Hey, I get it. I have the same complaints and bias on Tyreek Hill. If we see Andy Reid doesn’t use Hill or Hunt correctly…why isn’t there a mass denigration of Andy Reid as a coach? Has anyone ever been pleased with Andy Reid’s philosophy and execution over time?

It’s not Hunt’s fault…it is Reid’s planning but not for the media’s rationale – they think ‘gotta get him the ball more’. The real issue is that when Hunt is in…he’s getting the ball too much. It’s too obvious. The first three series of the game, Hunt got the first touch on 1st-down every time. When KC tried to ‘mix it up’ by not giving him the 1st touch of a drive, then it was Hunt after the first 1st-down of every drive.

Andy Reid is addicted to Kareem Hunt, and teams know it. Reid is a supposed offensive genius…but he’s so predictable that every time Hunt got the ball it seemed like Dallas knew it was coming. There’s a reason why KC’s season is starting to fall apart – everyone has figured out the genius Andy Reid.

Why does Reid win a lot of games coming off a BYE? Because he has two weeks to put new wrinkles in, and it confuses the opponent (because they are used to him doing the same things)…and then the new wrinkles are quickly figured out from there – and Reid, apparently, doesn’t change so he’s easy to figure out eventually.

Hunt’s fine…just not the mythical creature he was made out to be. It’s the offense that is his problem now. Take away Hunt and make Alex Smith be a real QB…he doesn’t know how at as high a level. Actually, he does…he’s just too afraid to pull the trigger. Over-cover Hunt and Kelce and price in one TD from Tyreek because you’re not going to double cover him because he’s probably not getting the ball 99% of the time, but the one time he does you’ll pay for it. Teams have figured all this out if I have. Teams should be scared to death of Hill but they barely move towards Hill when he’s on the move…but they usually chase Hunt every direction he heads.

 

 -- I have to say it…I was wrong about Tyreek Hill (4-9-0, 2-64-1/4).

I mean, I’m not wrong about his talent. Come on…you saw that play before halftime…are you serious? No human should be able to do that.

No, I was wrong that Andy Reid wasn’t a total idiot. I thought for sure he’d take what he did last year and build on it…at least, not regress. Hill is getting fewer touches today than he did to start 2017 and in the 2nd-half of 2016. No player should be this good. No coach and QB should be so dumb…but they are, so my bad on the prediction.

What’s crazy is for as poorly used as Tyreek is…he will likely be top 10 among all WRs in non-PPR in PPG after this week closes…possibly top 7-8. Top 15 in PPR. There’s still a chance with one big game he’ll launch into the top 5 among WRs in PPG.

Whenever I get excited about the possibilities with Cordarrelle Patterson, Tyreek Hill, Curtis Samuel…just take what I say and cut it in two, for now. The NFL is too set in its ways to enact change today. Call me when radical college coaches start getting NFL head coaching jobs…but none of them really want to jump to the NFL…why would they?

4 targets for Tyreek Hill in a game you’re losing to a superior team and need a spark. You’ve gotta be shitting me.

Maybe, I'm the dumbest adult you know?

 

 -- MVP Race? Bye-bye Alex Smith (25-34 for 263 yards, 2 TD/1 INT) and HELLO Dak Prescott (21-33 for 249 yards, 2 TD/0 INT, 3-27-1).

Is there any doubt who the better QB is now? Dak is always in command and Alex Smith is always about throw deep, you can see his arm twitching for a moment and then he pulls it downs and runs…or gets sacked…or dumps it off. You can win a Super Bowl with Alex Smith in a more unpredictable offense…but now with nonstop Kareem Hunt all game he’s getting forced too much into obvious passing situations after Hunt doesn’t move the chains.

Prescott has also jumped past Smith into the top 3 for fantasy PPG scoring among QBs after this game, as well as putting a stamp on the fact he’s a better pure QB…and more of an MVP candidate.

The media will not allow Dak to be MVP until he proves his worth with Ezekiel gone.

Also, note – all this Andy Reid venom… Do you really think he’s going to allow Patrick Mahomes to be a gunslinger-styled QB for him someday? Those in dynasty, holding and waiting for the day. I’ve seen Mahomes have moments of brilliance in preseason. He’s ready to go right now. What happens when he gets shoved into Andy Reid’s offensive prison?

I can already tell you – when Mahomes has a brilliant start, whenever that is, it will be hailed as ‘Andy Reid’s guiding hand’. When Mahomes starts throwing sloppy picks in games…it will be a big problem forcing Reid to try to put Mahomes on a leash to correct and then all his ‘flavor’ is taken away.

 

 -- I keep thinking that there has to be someone to step up for Dak as an alternative to Dez Bryant, and Terrance Williams (9-141-0/9) makes the most sense but there is no consistency with Williams.

In his three games prior to this, Williams had 2-0-2 for catches in games. Williams hasn’t scored a TD this season. He has just 3 TDs in his last 20 games…2 TDs in 19 games with Dak playing the full game.

Same rationale for Cole Beasley (4-24-2/6)…no consistency this season, where he had some last year. Yards in games this season for Beasley starting Week 1: 32-33-4-17-23-24-8-24.  The 2 TDs is alluring, and it’s the second time he’s done that in 4 games…but I see no real purpose/consistency using Beasley.

 

 -- Chiefs ILB Kevin Pierre-Louis (7 tackles, 1 TFL) did not get the start here as I thought he might have when first looking at the box score. He did play 58% of the defensive snaps. He might be pushing his way to more playing time or an eventual start. The Chiefs have to do something as their run-stopping ability is seriously lacking.

 

 -- We’re getting closer to Dallas as a DST1 every week now…and the defense of the future.

Dallas isn’t quite there yet…they’re not a Jacksonville or Pittsburgh, but almost there. The schedule is choppy is what really holds me back. Ryan-Wentz-Rivers-Cousins-Eli-Carr-Wilson are not scary, there are just no gems in there.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest…

01 = Alfred Morris

01 = Rod Smith

 

56 = Demarcus Robinson

48 = Tyreek Hill

39 = De’Anthony Thomas

 

18 = Taco Charlton

39 = Kevin Pierre-Louis

00 = Ukeme Eligwe (deep sleeper for the ILB job)

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>