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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk9: Lions v. Packers

Date:
November 7, 2017 11:05 PM
November 7, 2017 10:55 PM

I listened to Colin Cowherd before writing this today, and he saw what I saw – the Green Bay Packers are an embarrassment…an embarrassment for years covered over by Aaron Rodgers. I’ll keep saying it – Mike McCarthy is Andy Reid’s O-Line coach if he doesn’t stumble into Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre…and if anyone in football would look, he’s radically underperformed (outside of one Rodgers-led Super Bowl title) given those gifts.

If there are two more overrated coaches in the NFL than Andy Reid and Mike McCarthy, I don’t know who they are. Wait, my phone is ringing. It’s Pete Carroll. What does he mean when he says, “Did you just call Reid and McCarthy the most overrated coaches? Hold my beer…”.  

Hold on. Cell’s buzzing again. What does Ben McAdoo want…?

It’s not just Mike McCarthy is awful at coaching, but the GM has had time pass him by, and I think ‘time’ is starting to lap him while running backwards and mocking him. I want to say D-C Dom Capers is toast…but he hasn’t been dealt a great hand to work with either. It’s all a mess in Green Bay, once we get distracted by due to the majesty of Rodgers.

I’m sitting there watching the game on MNF, and excited to see what two weeks off to prep for Brett Hundley might mean. I figure they’d have to have some new wrinkles, etc., to come out of the gates with. Then I sit there and watch a bunch of silly screen passes. The setups of which were so obvious that the defense smothered them almost every time. The entire league is a screen pass league…because it works 50%+ of the time, but Green Bay can’t even get screen passes right! Four years coaching Brett Hundley. Two weeks to prepare. A supposed offensive guru…and that Monday Night game plan was the best he had? Mike McCarthy is just…I mean…is anyone in football coaching worth a crap at their jobs?

Every youth football coach and into high school coach I had was a maniac and/or awful, except for the two years my dad coached. Does every maniac youth football coach just wind up falling upward into the pros? My dad was a successful corporate business person…and he had no aspirations to coach any higher, but he could have and been great. My 10/11-year old football team had three future college football prospects in the backfield…and me as the wishbone QB. My dad saw what worked…and simply worked it. We ran the same three plays over and over and no one could stop it. My dad knew I sucked as a QB, but I knew the plays and could organize the team…so I dutifully ‘game managed’ as the stars were set up to be stars. If my dad was a nutcase NFL-type, he would have used the star RBs as a diversion and ran me on bootlegs.

I am firmly convinced normal, successful people like most of us reading this would be the best head coaches in the NFL if we had chosen to go that route. We all just opted not to/we pursued something else because we weren’t in the club…or needed a real paying job and not sleeping on a floor for years before trying to get a break. Mike McCarthy could not do my job better than me, but I’m pretty sure I could do his and the GMs better than them. I don’t mean that as a dumb fan. I earnestly mean what I said. We think head coaches are special…they aren’t. They just got in the system and wound up with the gig. I never entered the system. I didn’t know it might have been so easy.

The Green Bay offense was mind-numbingly bad. Their defense was worse. If that’s not the worst pass defense in the NFL that was displayed last night, I don’t know what team is.

Hold on, Dirk Koetter and Jack Del Rio are calling. What could they want?

The Packers are done. The schedule is going to get them to 7-9/8-8…but 10 wins is going to be needed to make the wild card. 9-10 wins for the NFC North title. Green Bay has virtually no shot at either opportunity.

Before this game, I thought if Detroit won this game that they’d then make a run at the NFC North title…because of their schedule. Here we are. Here they go.

Cleveland this week gets the Lions to 5-4. They face CHI-MIN after that…split those games to get to 6-5 and then they have at BAL, at TB…sweep those ‘easy’ road games and the Lions are 8-5 with CHI, at CIN, GB. It’s possible that the Lions will only face one team with a winning record the rest of 2017. Yes, that does mean you should take their DST seriously…we’ll get into that ahead. If the Lions don’t win 10 games this year, Jim Caldwell should be removed.

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Is it Brett Hundley’s (26-38 for 245 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 4-22-1) or Mike McCarthy’s fault that Hundley looks pathetic? A little of both.

I believe if you put Hundley in a pure spread a la Deshaun Watson, you’d get a better performance than the junk we see. Hundley is not as good in the spread as Watson but he’d be pretty good. Obviously, Mike McCarthy isn’t going there. I had about a 5% thought he might but the NFL never fails to do the safe, dull, unimaginative thing.

Hundley isn’t perfect but he’s the wrong fit for Aaron Rodgers’-style of offense. He’ll get better as he plays more but there’s no star power here. Hundley’s career basically came to an end last night. It’s not ending, but he’s locked himself in as a great backup for Russell Wilson or Deshaun Watson in the future. He’ll never be an ‘on purpose’ starter in this league. He was drafted with disrespect. He’s been forgotten behind Rodgers. There is nothing McCarthy could teach a spread QB…and, obviously, he didn’t…it shows.

Hundley’s relevance as an NFL QB is over.

 

 -- Because Hundley is a screen passer, you might as well forget Jordy Nelson (4-35-0/7) or Davante Adams (7-53-0/10) being anything close to WR1s. I hoped a 20-25% drop in production with Hundley. It’s 50% easy.

You see all these Robert Woods, Marquise Lee, Robby Anderson, Rishard Matthews names floating around…I can’t make an argument that Adams is any better for the rest of 2017 than any of them. I’m not sure I can same the same for Jordy either. It just feels weird to even think it…but what’s the argument for the GB guys over Robby Anderson, this week, for example?

The best I can give is…maybe the Packers get into enough garbage time that it matters some?

The next three weeks of pass defenses for the Packers to face, in terms of lowest yards per game allowed -- #11 (CHI), #3 (BAL), #2 (PIT).

 

 -- What happened to Aaron Jones (5-12-0, 2-0-0/5)? Hell, if I know.

He got off to a slow start and then McCarthy panicked and started rotating RBs praying for an answer. Ty Montgomery (5-33-0, 1-18-0/1) looked better 1-2 times but it’s a little apples-to-oranges.

We have to brace ourselves for McCarthy coaching without Aaron Rodgers…which looks like it means – random acts of coaching panic and safe, conservative play until it’s too late.

 

 -- I’m not going to mention Dwayne Washington (5-1-0) much anymore. The guy has had chance after chance to show a spark and never capitalizes. He’s had like three good runs in the NFL in two years, and I think came up hurt after each one. All he ever does is blast away into traffic between the tackles. The Lions never try to get him out in space away from near the goal line. He’d be a great option to bubble screen to…a 6’1”+/220+ RB who used to be a WR…get that big horse out in space with the ball. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen the Lions try to throw him a pass.

Ameer Abdullah (21-48-1, 1-9-0/1) will be what costs the Lions the NFC North…their instance on pushing him as a workhorse. The guy has been underproductive his entire NFL career and fumble-crazy and yet he cannot get enough touches. Jay Gruden has to be rolling over in his grave watching this. If Dwayne Washington came in for a simple 3rd & short and busted a tackle and popped a 50+ yard TD run…the hostile takeover would be upon us. Instead, DW never capitalizes.

If I were the Lions O-C, I’d bench Ameer and Riddick and run with Washington and Zenner…right to the NFC North title. They won’t. And Abdullah's lack of production and losses of fumbles will come back to haunt the Lions to lose a game they should’ve won. Ameer fumbled twice in this game and one on the goal line looked like the beginning of the end for him but it wasn’t.

If Zach Zenner is active next week…the Zenner movement as a deep sleeper starts up again.

 

 -- Marvin Jones (7-107-2/11) has gone from a forgotten, waivers WR to sudden WR1.5. You have to ride this wave right now. Why do I have a feeling it will crash hard, again?

If I had Marvin, I’d be trying to sell him as a WR1-ish WR and hijack someone or just keep him and ride the wave. Facing the Browns next week…another 100+ yard game.

 

 -- Packers’ rookie IDP Josh Jones (8 tackles, 0.5 TFLs) finally showed up after taking 4-5 weeks off.

Jones had 12 tackles in Week 3, and it looked like a star was born, but then 3-3-2-3 for tackles in games after that. Then this game he showed back up. That’s been his problem going back to college – a ton of talent, but inconsistent play.

 

 -- Why not the Lions DST for the rest of 2017 for those streaming defenses? Of course, everyone will be in on this Week 10 because ‘vs. Browns’, but they will work for many weeks ahead.

Kizer then Trubisky, Bridgewater(?), Flacco, Winston/Fitz, Trubisky, Dalton through to Week 16. Not exactly ‘Murder’s Row’.

The Lions are one of 6 defenses this year that have equal-to or more INTs than passing TDs allowed this season. BAL, BUF, LAR, JAX, PIT…and Detroit (10 TD/10 INT).

The Lions aren’t my favorite defense, and not my favorite ROS sleeper DST…but they are among the top candidates for sleeper down the stretch. I like the Chargers, Cowboys, and Redskins a bit better.

 

Snap Counts of Interest…

24 = Ty Montgomery

20 = Aaron Jones

09 = Jamaal Williams

 

19 = Vince Biegel

03 = Jamal Agnew

 

43 = Fells

35 = Ebron

21 = Roberts

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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