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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Wk9: Rams v. Giants

Date:
November 8, 2017 10:48 PM
November 8, 2017 10:22 PM

Well, we all rejoiced over this one in FFM-land. Our Best Bet lock…locked it up. Pushing Jared Goff…4 TDs. We thought it would be a beat down and it was.

I have to laugh because the media still doesn’t get it. I’ll give you two examples how THEY subtly hold to a position (in this case the wrong one) and only tell stories through that lens. Two examples...

(1) THEIR story about this game isn’t how great the Rams are…it’s the Giants ‘quitting’ on their coach. It’s a New York bias, and still an unawareness how good LAR is. Any talk of the Rams is like “Gosh, can you believe this? What world do we live in?” The Rams have to be portrayed this way because the media and analysts didn’t see it coming and haven’t all year.

(2) Every time the Rams deliver a big play in a game…it’s portrayed by game commentators as bad defense, the opponent is confused, Sean McVay is a genius, ‘look at all the protection’. They will not give into Jared Goff at all.

However, when their beloved Carson Wentz has a good play…he’s a magician, he’s the greatest ever – the best young QB in the league. Such growth from year one to two…because he’s a ‘grower’ he’s special. Goff…it’s the plays called and the opponent’s issues, that’s all.

Vegas is finally waking up to this after getting rocked on the Rams all season. This week the line keeps growing for the Rams over Houston. But the NFL establishment…still doesn’t get it. Not on Goff and not on the Rams. They still think Seattle is in first place in the division.

The Rams are 6-2. Their schedule is asking for a 6-2 finish to end 12-4…an NFC West title and a BYE in the first round of the playoffs. Everyone is in love with the Eagles…don’t be shocked when the Rams host Philly in Week 14, beat them, and thus become the #1 seed in the NFC.

Then will the NFL talking heads embrace the Rams?

Nope.

As for the Giants…it’s been a rough year. They are falling down, plus have had a lot of injuries. However, they have had a pretty rough schedule to try to navigate during their fall.

The Giants have 7 losses…five to playoff teams. Two against non-playoff LAC and TB…they shoulda/coulda won. They are not as terrible as their record. Their mindsets may be lost but they really were never as bad as portrayed.  

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- What can I say about Jared Goff (14-22 for 311 yards, 4 TD/0 INT)? Another masterful performance. He makes it look easy…like the ‘next Brady’ he is. Goff passed Brady into the top 3 in yards per completion in the NFL…a blink away from overtaking #1.

The thing that makes Goff different is the deep balls he’s putting on the money…he’s not a dink and dunker. He hit Sammy Watkins in stride 50+ yards down the field for a long TD here. He put another beauty on Gerald Everett 40+ yards downfield in a rapidly closing window. He finds open receivers downfield and pulls the trigger…whereas many QBs flinch deep and then check down…or their big play comes off a scramble out of trouble and finding broken containment. Not Goff. He’s a throwback. The last of a dying breed of ‘next Brady’ QBs. Maybe the last ever.

Goff or Brady this week (10) for fantasy?

This is the #1 question I’ve received this week.

It’s a great question. Tom Brady, who is tailing off in output, facing the former monster defense of Denver (but Wentz just popped 4 TDs on) or go hot-as-a-pistol Goff in a cherry matchup with Houston?

I don’t know. Goff feels good coming off a 4 TD game, but come on…it’s Brady!

You can’t go wrong.

I’m going to chase the hot offense facing the worse defense. Do-or-die, the right call is The Computer call…Goff.

I should say ‘Brady’ because that’s what people want to hear. If I say Brady and it doesn’t work, we all go ‘Well, it’s Brady’. If I steer you into Goff and he goes 250 yards and 1 TD, while Brady goes 300+ and 2 TDs…you’ll hate me forever for suggesting such a stupid thing. Because ‘no one is saying go Goff anywhere but you…dummy’.

It’s the #1 offense vs. a terrible defense. It’s a QB playing great. OR it’s slowly fading, but still great Brady against a defense you don’t know if it’s going to roll over or rise up…and if it rises up, you’re dead with Brady because his O-Line is weak this year.

Do what you want…it’s nice problem to have. You don’t have to ask me, just look at The Computer rankings. If you’re going to cry and wish me ill if it doesn’t work…go with Brady.

Look at what decent QBs have done to the Texans this season. Look at the Rams offensive efficiency. All signs point to Goff but you’re not crazy to roll Brady.

 

 -- More amazing than Goff in this game…Evan Engram (4-70-1/10). He is becoming a TE god. He’s gaining confidence. He’s getting the targets. Heck, the Rams best cover guy was on him often…and Engram beat him for plays. You don’t find guys like Engram at the TE spot every day or year or decade. Goff, I can find every year. Engram every decade.

One thing I noted during this re-watch…I keep making notes in Engram’s games of late on near-miss plays that would have gotten EE to 100+ yards in the game. He had one here where he was open, streaking downfield and Eli overthrew him. I think the 100+ yard efforts are coming soon to take him to a whole other level.

 

 -- Sterling Shepard (5-70-0/9) looked very good and is definitely on his way to a WR1.5 type of run in PPR. He’s clearly the WR Eli prefers. He knows how to run his routes, make tough catches, has some pop after the catch.

Only Evan Engram will push him for targets for the ROS.

 

 -- Orleans Darkwa (16-71-0, 2-8-0/2) is clearly the Giants lead RB running the ball now with that new play-caller. Darkwa is still kinda limited…a bruiser who can’t catch, but works OK with some decent blocking.

I only mention this because Darkwa vs. the awful 49ers this week should be gold.

 

 -- I know we’re all excited about Robert Woods (4-70-2/5). We laid out the case for Woods as Goff’s preferred about two weeks before the media realized it…they were still on Sammy Watkins and Cooper Kupp. Woods had been OK prior to this game and then really popped here.

Don’t get too excited. Many picked up Woods on our notice a few weeks ago. You maybe didn’t start him last week but you’re jamming him in this week with confidence. He’s still more a WR3. He still gets mediocre targeting…as Goff is a ‘spread around’ guy more than lean on one. I can see Woods is his preferred but I’d rather have Sterling Shepard for the ROS.

 

 -- Tyler Higbee (1-8-1/2) scored a TD, our ‘upside TE of the week’…but just one catch. The developing Higbee story stalled 3-4 weeks ago. He’s a TE2, low-end, until further notice.

 

 -- IDP Connor Barwin (4 tackles, 1.0 sacks) is starting to pop a little bit in Wade Phillips defense – 4.0 sacks his last 6 games.  

 

Snap Counts of Interest…

45 = Woods

39 = Kupp

33 = Watkins

 

32 = Darkwa

19 = Vereen

17 = Gallman

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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