Brought to you by - Total Football Advisors, LLC
I get the argument the media is making to protect their beloved Seahawks. The media is all about Seattle. I get the argument in this game – it was raining, Seattle missed 3 FGs, missing Earl Thomas, and Seattle had the better numbers in most every category. I agree.
However, consider that Washington played toe-to-toe…it wasn’t luck, this was Washington as every bit the team (flaws and all) as Seattle was/is (flaws and all). This was Washington beating Seattle AT Seattle while the Redskins were missing their entire O-Line. That should never happen…Seattle cannot lose or even play equal to a team missing their entire O-Line at Seattle.
It happens because Washington and Seattle are similar teams, but Washington has the better defense…better than Seattle. The Legion of Boom is in Washington now. Add to that how poorly coached the Seahawks are and how undisciplined they are…and you get a loss that shouldn’t happen.
The media keeps chatting about this as “How could the Seahawks lose?” They’re missing out on something we’ve said for a while – Washington is secretly one of the best teams in football. At full strength/healthy, Washington is a Super Bowl threat.
Washington has lost to PHI-KC-PHI-DAL this season…no crime in that. They were never out of any of those games. Washington is the best 4-4 team you’ll find. If the Redskins can win one of their next two (MIN/at NO), then I think they get to 9-7 for sure with a shot at 10-6. It’s going to take 10 wins to get to the playoffs in the NFC most likely.
Seattle is the opposite analysis of Washington. Seattle is 5-3 but they should be 3-5. They’ve beaten terrible teams and beat the Rams in a game LA dominated them in. Seattle is a fraud. They are also at a real risk of not making the playoffs. Assuming Seattle goes 2-1 the next three weeks (ARI-ATL-SF), they’ll be 7-4 and about to hit a stretch where they play PHI, JAC, LAR, DAL…a high-probability the Seahawks have a 4-game losing streak right around the corner. A 7-8 Seattle team ahead? How about 8-7 heading into Week 17 vs. Arizona? If 10 wins is the cut off for the wild card, I don’t believe Seattle will get there. Week 15 LAR at Seattle is going to be another seminal moment of the 2017 season…a changing of the guard moment like Dallas-KC was this week.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Chris Thompson (4-20-0, 4-11-0/6) had a rare letdown fantasy effort this game but he’s but pretty much been ‘money’ most games this season…a top 10 PPR PPG RB this season…a PPR RB you’d have been better off with than Kareem Hunt the past 5-6 games.
I mention this because Thompson is a PPR RB1 trading at an RB2-2.5 price in some leagues. No one trusts that ‘this is real’ with Thompson. Of all ‘these kinda guys’ (pass catch RBs/not workhorses), Thompson has been the best this season. A nice buy-low for the desperate or bargain hunters.
The Redskins can’t run, they have to pass and Thompson is basically their #1 WR…as an RB.
He certainly doesn’t have to worry about Samaje Perine (2-9-0) taking touches. Perine got an early carry, and did his Jordan Howard impersonation, dancing through trouble for 8-yards…a sweet run, a perfect start. A few plays later, a miscommunication on the snap between him and Cousins and a lost fumble ensued…must have been Perine’s fault, everything is, because Perine was immediately gone from the game for good getting touches. I think Gruden would cut him Perine if he were allowed.
-- Russell Wilson (24-45 for 297 yards, 2 TD/2 INT, 10-77-0) is another great buy-low for the stretch run. Everyone knows and loves RW, but he’s not respected for fantasy. He’s a top 3-5 guy now that the O-Line has broken down so much that the team is forced to pass all the time…and now Wilson is taking it upon himself to run a bunch as well. A season-high 10 carries for 77 yards in this game.
This Week 9 output happening with Duane Brown in the lineup. 9 QB hits for the Redskins defense. Wilson gets under pressure and takes off running, smartly, and is adding to his FF numbers. This O-Line needs more than Duane Brown at this point.
He’s a top 3-5 QB often trading as a low-end QB1 valuation.
-- The soap opera that is the Seahawks backfield continues to be unpredictable…and unfruitful.
Eddie Lacy (6-20-0) started and was his typical…awful. Then got hurt and left the game.
Thomas Rawls (9-39-0, 2-31-0/2) replaced Lacy and provided a spark a few times. Rawls is still sucking me in a bit as a gamble on the guy who is going to take this backfield over…whatever that means.
C.J. Prosise returns this week…and all it would take is a few nice plays from him and he could seize the day.
If I had to take just one for the ROS…it would be Rawls, a pure speculation…and CJP always gets hurt.
-- Josh Doctson (3-59-0/5) is pulling away from Terrelle Pryor (2-17-0/3) in the ‘big WR’ sweepstakes for Washington.
Before anyone gets too excited…if not for a tremendous diving catch to end that game by Doctson, he was on his way to a 2 catch, 21-yard night with 4 targets…in a game with no Jordan Reed or Jamison Crowder. I just don’t see any special connection or work with Doctson-Cousins yet.
-- Washington has battled a bunch of defensive injuries this season but are getting somewhat healthy. The secondary is healed up and found UDFA CB Quinton Dunbar (3 tackles, 1 PD) as a starter-worthy option and they just got long-time vet DB DeAngelo Hall (5 tackles, 2 PDs) back and he had some nice plays in this game.
This is a sleeper DST for sure. Their numbers aren’t great overall because of the injuries they’ve had to deal with but they are going to pop ahead. Watch what they do to the Vikings if Case Keenum starts this week.
You can use the Redskins DST in five of the next 7 weeks. No ‘wow’ matchups but reasonable ones. Week 10/Keenum. Week 12/Eli. Week 14/Chargers. Week 15/Stanton. Week 16/Lynch.
-- Seattle rookie DT Nazair Jones (3 tackles. 0.5 sacks) is a 6’4.5”/304 pound DL prospect, the #102 pick by Seattle this year. He’s OK, not bad. 5.11 40-time, 18 bench reps…he’s still developing/get his body right for the NFL. He’ll be a spot/situational player for a while/all season, I suspect. Nothing to watch for IDP yet.
Snap Counts of Interest…
70 = Baldwin
68 = Richardson
55 = Lockett
42 = Rawls
30 = McKissic
59 = Grant
56 = Doctson
35 = Pryor
33 = C. Thompson
26 = Kelley
06 = Perine
83 = DeAngelo Hall (1st game back)
44 = Q. Dunbar
31 = Nazair Jones
46 = Jarran Reed