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Fantasy-Dynasty Game Recap 2016 Week 13: Broncos v. Jaguars

Date:
January 19, 2018 2:09 PM
December 8, 2016 7:41 PM

In-season, I’m pumping out content faster than editing can keep up with. I don’t want to hold the recaps for hours waiting on perfection. We will correct errors after the fact, but for now – forgive any of my gaffes. I dictate some of my notes, and the computer software or Siri interpretation can be comical. I try to correct them all before publishing it, but I miss it sometimes…in the 50,000+ words I pen each week during the season (not including all the emails). I’m moving fast, and want to get the product out there ASAP at 98% ‘good’…vs. big delays trying to get to 99.9% craftsmanship. So here you go…

 

This was a pretty evenly matched game, oddly enough. It’s just that Denver has a little more defense, and they forced Bortles to make the key mistake that Paxton Lynch did not – Bortles was picked twice, one for a pick-six and Lynch had no INTs.

It was 10-3 Denver at the half. The pick six (3rd quarter) made it 17-3 Broncos. The Jags scored a TD early 4th quarter to make it a once score game, 17-10. The Jags tried the rest of the game to get that game-tying score. Denver tried to get it to a two-score game…back and forth all 4th quarter. The Jags just couldn’t do it, and Denver kicked a Field Goal with about a minute left to officially put it out of reach.

I got the feeling that I saw a preview of the Vikings-Jags Week 14 game here. Only Minnesota is not as good as Denver on defense and just lost Harrison Smith. The Jags will have their best RB back for the game (Ivory), potentially, and maybe their starting TE (Thomas) and Allen Hurns as well.

Denver has four division leaders in a row coming up on the schedule – TEN, NE, KC, OAK. If they split those four games, Denver reaches 10-6 and likely grabs the last wild card spot. Denver’s fortunes really change if KC beats Oakland Week 14, and sets them both at 10-6 while Denver jumps to 9-5 with a win this week. The Broncos would be just a game back in the standings with three to go, and a game remaining against each of their AFC West foes.

 

— The biggest news of the week involving these two teams doesn’t involve a player who played in this game. Kapri Bibbs (5-49-0) got hurt/lost for the season, and the Broncos signed Justin Forsett this week and proclaimed a timeshare already. This, of course, has fantasy hearts fluttering (among the RB desperate).

It shouldn’t. Here’s why…

Let’s look at Justin Forsett’s 2016:

*First off, Forsett hasn’t been relevant for fantasy since 2014, the only time in his career he was relevant, and it was only for a hot stretch of games for about a half a season.

*Last year, he was mediocre at best.

*This season he began as the Ravens starter, but Terrance West was pushing him. Three games into the season, the Ravens saw enough – they cut Forsett. From multiple year starter for Baltimore, and their 2016 opening day starter, to cut after three games.

*He kicked around for a week or so, no team making a move, and then Detroit got hit with injuries and gave him a tryout and they signed him. The Lions pushed Forsett into touches right away, and it wasn’t good. After playing in two games, Forsett was not active for a couple of games and then released by Detroit.

Again, no one was racing after Forsett after his release. He’s been just ‘out there’ for a few weeks. A desperate Broncos team signed him this week…and is promising him the moon for touches, apparently.

The Broncos can say and hope whatever they want – there is a reality to deal with. A reality that Forsett has little left in the tank, and the Denver run game issue is not all the RBs fault…it’s the O-Line and offense’s fault. It doesn’t matter who goes back there. Now, you’re putting a 31-year old guy failing at multiple stops this season behind that same line…and he’s supposed to be a sudden fantasy-worthy option behind it? Healthy, young RBs are failing here…I don’t think Forsett is the missing link. C.J. Anderson has been a failure for two years, and Devontae Booker (18-35-1, 1-2-0/1 target) has been OK, but not eye-catching. None of us liked the Denver RBs before this. None of us liked Forsett in Baltimore or Detroit this year. Now, Forsett + Denver is a thing? I don’t think so. Not for me.

The answer sits idle on the practice squad…Terrell Watson. But only I think that…not the team, obviously. If Kapri Bibbs was suddenly hot, then I can only imagine what Watson could pull off here.

 

— Paxton Lynch (12-24 for 104 yards, 0 TD/0 INT)…oh, boy (said with much more sarcasm out loud)…not good.

Lynch is displaying everything I disliked about him in pre-draft scouting. He’s too jumpy/has happy feet. He has a bad hitch in his throw. He has almost no medium-deep touch/instinct. When everything is just right, Lynch looks (at a glance) like a real NFL QB prospect…it’s a false front view a la Carson Wentz.

I’m about to get on the Trevor Siemian train, myself. I’m starting to smell Kirk Cousins with better feet, better defense, and worse coach ahead with Siemian. How a QB could struggle so much in the Big Ten and just go handle the NFL just fine two years later is almost beyond my grasp of understanding.

Jerry Jones…trying to trade up for Paxton Lynch, crying about it for months after…settles on Dak Prescott.

 

— Neal Sterling (5-43-0/6 targets) is a former 7th-round draft pick WR turned TE for the Jags. He tried to stick as a WR last season, and he converted to TE this preseason. He basically plays it like a WR. I’m not seeing any bulk, etc. He’s a big WR or thin TE. He could be interesting for fantasy if Julius Thomas were to be out longer. Sterling is basically an extra WR on the field in passing downs…working with Bortles, so probably not interesting.

 

— Jared Crick (4 tackles, 1 PD) has been very steady for the Broncos this season. His IDP numbers are starting to rise of late as well – 4.7 tackles the past three games. He has 5 PDs on the season – a master at knocking down passes as a DL.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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