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Fantasy-Dynasty Game Recap 2016 Week 13: Texans v. Packers

Date:
January 19, 2018 2:04 PM
December 9, 2016 12:14 PM

Almost impossible to read anything into the performances in this game because it was a steady, driving snow that made the ball and the field slick. Visibility was not good either. It was a sloppy mess that Green Bay ended up grabbing hold of and not letting go.

It was 0–0 after the first quarter. 7–0 Green Bay at halftime. You thought Osweiler was bad in good conditions…he wasn’t much of a treat in this weather. Houston did tie it 7–7 by the end of the third quarter, but then Green Bay popped two TD drives and took a 21–7 lead. Houston scored a lucky TD late to make the Packers sweat just a bit but ran out of time.

Assuming that Houston loses at Indy this week it would give them four losses in a row and the whole city about to go into revolt on Osweiler. Houston is probably headed to 8–8, and that might put them into a tie for the division to be determined by tiebreakers.

Green Bay is waking up with their pass-first offense. They’ve climbed back to 6–6. Their season probably rests on this week’s game vs. Seattle. A loss means the Packers have to win out to get to 9–7…and that might not be good enough. A win gives them momentum to win out and possibly sneak the division title away.

 

— The Green Bay running back situation got more confusing this week…

James Starks (4-1-0) started and barely played after that. He played seven snaps. He looks slow and unimportant – and was treated as such in this game.

Ty Montgomery (6-40-0, 2-16-0/3 targets) looked like the most competent, most imposing running back of the group. If I had to bet on one Green Bay RB for fantasy the rest of the way…it would be Ty. I’m not sure the main RB means anything for fantasy anyway. He played 29 snaps.

If I had to bet on one Green Bay RB for fantasy next week it would be Christine Michael. He came into the game and led off various series in the second quarter. He ran with a bit of a spark, as he does – super fast and straight ahead without prejudice or shiftiness. It can be an exciting change of pace.

With Green Bay up 21–13, just after Houston scored late, the Pack started a final drive to run out the clock with 1:50 left. Michael took three straight ‘run the clock’ carries. That’s pretty nice confidence for a guy who joined the team three weeks ago.

Week 14, the Packers face Seattle – the team that unceremoniously cut Michael a few weeks ago. Do you think Michael’s going to get 10 or more carries this week? Do you think he’ll have an extra pep in his step?

 

— You gotta trust C.J. Fiedorowicz (6-44-0/9 targets) to at least get an opportunity in this passing game. He was the most targeted player for Houston this week. He’s averaging 7.4 targets per game over Houston’s last eight games. He has five or more catches in a game in five of his last seven games.

 

— Does the Texans DST have any value the rest of the season?

No good, really, against Indy at Indy Week 14. However, Week 15 hosting Jacksonville is a play. Week 16 hosting the Bengals is top 12 DST worthy.

The Texans have a good defense, but it’s being hurt slightly by their offense’s inability to move the ball or maintain possessions. They have the #5 defense against the pass this season, but are near the bottom of the league in sacks – fourth-lowest in the NFL.

 

— The Green Bay DST may be a little more interesting than you think coming up…

After Week 14 with Seattle, the Packers have two great matchups – against Matt Barkley and the incompetent Vikings offense. Green Bay has been wrecked by good/great QBs this season. However, they’ve been strong against weak QBs. In their five ‘easy’ QBs this season (Bradford, Bortles, Barkley/Hoyer, Wentz, and Osweiler), the Packers defense has only allowed 15.2 PPG. 17-23-10-13-13 in games.

You could do worse.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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