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Fantasy-Dynasty Game Recap 2016 Week 14: Raiders v. Chiefs

Date:
January 19, 2018 1:21 PM
December 15, 2016 12:29 PM

It seems like forever since this game was played. I re-watched it about five days later. I like to re-watch a game with more distance from the live watch…I get to ‘forget’ what happened in much of it, so it seems fresher on the re-watch. However, after the re-watch, I had the same opinion  as I did during the live watch. My main note: How dumb can the NFL be?

What do all these coaches do all week for 16–25 hours a day? It can’t be watching football tape because no one in their right mind would kick a ball to Tyreek Hill in December 2016. After Hill dropped 3 TDs on Denver a few weeks prior and having watched just watched Hill burn the secondary for a 36-yard TD catch eight minutes ago (in game time)…Oakland politely punted to Hill mid-second quarter and he returned it for a 76-yard TD, which gave KC a 21–3 lead with all the momentum at home.

…and that’s not the dumbest thing Oakland did, but it was super-dumb.

Oakland scored with 0:14 seconds left before half to cut the lead to 21–10. Just 0:14 left, so what does Oakland do on the ensuing kickoff? A strong squib kick that rolls/bounces right to Hill, and he starts returning it. For a moment, it looked like ‘he might’, but Hill was tackled after 25 yards of return. I can and will rail that the Chiefs are not getting the ball to Hill enough. Fortunately, Jack Del Rio was trying to get it to Hill more than Andy Reid.

It’s unbelievable.

My real main note from this game – Tyreek Hill should be up for Rookie of the Year over Ezekiel Elliott, and he should also get votes for league MVP. I’m dead serious. Hill has won at least two games for KC alone (Denver and this Oakland game). KC can barely move the ball unless Hill comes up with something big or the threat of him draws attention away. KC is 8–5, at best, without Hill in existence. The Dallas Cowboys would still be 11–2 without Ezekiel Elliott. I’ve not seen anything where Elliott has changed the game. He’s doing well, but he’s living comfortably off his O-Line. I’ve seen him drop several passes, because despite every analyst crowing otherwise – Elliott has crappy/below-average hands in the passing game. I’ve seen Elliott run for untouched TDs…he leads the league in length of play before initial contact. It’s not ‘special’. He’s good. BUT Tyreek Hill is changing the game. Elliott’s just a nice player to have.

Rookie of the Year should be:

1: Dak Prescott

2: Jalen Ramsey-Tyreek Hill

4: Ezekiel Elliott

 

Tyreek Hill has helped push Kansas City to the AFC West lead and a #2 seed with a chance to be the #1 seed. They also have a chance to miss the playoffs. There’s still work to be done. In the end, I suspect they tie with Oakland at 12–4, but KC has the tiebreaker.

Oakland might be just fine with the #1 wild card spot, assuming KC wins the AFC West. The Raiders would probably get Houston in the first round.

 

— Why such resistance of Tyreek Hill (6-66-1/6 targets) as a top 10 projected WR this week…or any week? People keep balking at his target counts and snap counts in games. Folks, Hill doesn’t need 10 targets to catch 6 passes and accumulate yards. He is a one-touch–and-possible-long-TD-event on any touch. There is no player in the NFL more dangerous with the ball in their hands right now. The fastest guy in the league who can run, catch passes all over, and take a hit. He’s the most ‘hold your breath’ player in the NFL, every time he touches the ball.

I get the doubt… Why don’t they use him more? I don’t know. After scoring 2 TDs in the first half of this game, Hill saw one more target the rest of the game. I get the fantasy fear on him, but he’s been so productive you can’t deny him even with limited snaps.

In his last seven games…

6.0 catches on just 7.7 targets per game. He’s catching 78% of the throws his way. He’s not just a one-hit wonder on a deep ball. He’s getting plays all over the field. He does not drop passes.

He’s scored 5 TDs in his last three games. He has 9 total TDs this season.

Add receiving and rushing together, and you have 70.6 yards per game the last seven weeks.

10.5 FF PPG (16.5 PPR) over the last seven weeks. 12.2 FF PPG (18.2 PPR) if you count the return scores.

Can you trust Tyreek Hill this week? Why not?

He’s the most explosive talent in all the NFL, athletically, on a team trying to get him the ball several ways…and moronic opposing teams trying to get him the ball on returns as well.

Why does he have to prove himself into your lineup this week? You should have to find a case NOT to start him.

 

— Spencer Ware (20-56-0, 1-7-0/2 targets)…you can sit him if you want. But how many guys do you that will get 20+ touches this week on your bench?

Why Ware is buying the groceries, bringing them back home, opening the ingredients, mixing up the recipe and baking a wonderful cake and then painstakingly applying the frosting…and then Charcandrick West (2-4-1) comes in and puts the cherry on top and gets key credit for making this amazing cake – to me it’s maddening.

Why West comes in on key third downs, two-minute drills, and goal-line situations is beyond me. It’s a total lack of understanding of personnel. Ware should be in on every goal-line situation because of his size and power. Ware should be the passing game back because he has better hands and is more devastating in the open field. Playing West in key spots is like hitting on 17 in blackjack every time. It works out occasionally, but over time it’s costing you. There is no ‘lost opportunity’ stat in the NFL. If there was, I think the Chiefs would lead the league in it.

 

— Speaking of wasted opportunity… What has happened to Amari Cooper (5-29-0/10 targets)?

6.5 FF PPG (10.8 PPR) on 4.3 rec. (6.8 targets) for 40.6 yards and 0.40 TDs over his past five games.  That’s not strong. Not obvious WR1 numbers. Those are WR2/3 numbers. Cooper has less than 60 yards in five straight games, and in six of his last seven games. Tyreek Hill is blowing him away the past seven weeks, and yet…you auto-start Amari and wonder about Tyreek?

The schedule hasn’t been easy, and that’s a possible excuse, but something still seems off between Cooper and Carr. This week will be the best opportunity at a favorable matchup he’s had in a while. If he flops here, then something is up – either he’s injured or Carr-Cooper are having issues, or Jack Del Rio is insane…which is entirely possible.

 

— Travis Kelce (5-101-0/8 targets) has four straight games with 100+ yards – that’s amazing for a TE. The odd thing is – no TD production going with it. Six straight games without a TD, and just 1 TD in his last nine games.

 

— Daniel Sorensen (8 tackles) led the team in tackles this week. He was hot several weeks ago but then was given less of a role and his IDP numbers dried up. He’s starting to roll again – 6.5 tackles per game the past two games. Someone has to step up with Derrick Johnson out. We’re back on IDP watch with Sorensen again!

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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