ffm logo

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

Get the app

Fantasy-Dynasty Game Recap 2016 Week 14: Seahawks v. Packers

Date:
January 19, 2018 1:25 PM
December 14, 2016 4:22 PM

In-season, I’m pumping out content faster than editing can keep up with. I don’t want to hold the recaps for hours waiting on perfection. We will correct errors after the fact, but for now – forgive any of my gaffes. I dictate some of my notes, and the computer software or Siri interpretation can be comical. I try to correct them all before publishing it, but I miss it sometimes…in the 50,000+ words I pen each week during the season (not including all the emails). I’m moving fast, and want to get the product out there ASAP at 98% ‘good’…vs. big delays trying to get to 99.9% craftsmanship. So here you go…

 

 

This game was over about five minutes into it. Green Bay shredded Seattle. I think football analysts are looking at this game and celebrating the Packers resurgence. You think Dallas is America’s team, but Green Bay is right there too…everyone seems fixated on viewing everything through a Packers perspective. Green Bay is surging. A legit Super Bowl contender. But what about how awful Seattle has been of late?

I think this game says more about Seattle than it did the Packers. Green Bay is really good when healthy, and we all suspected that coming into this season. Seattle should be great. This team should be dominant. This type of ass-whipping does not normally happen to the great teams. Seattle is an A+ group being coached down into a ‘B+’ team. If death comes in threes, so they say, then I got Norv Turner and Jeff Fisher crossed off my dead pool. I want Seattle O-C Darrell Bevell’s head on a stick, and I want it now. He is killing this team. He has been the governor on their accelerator for years. They win despite him. I know the players don’t like him, and I’m not just saying that without some evidence/talk from within. I have no clue why Seattle keeps sticking by him. NFL teams tend to do things that make little sense to me.

Just like what Dak Prescott is going to do/has done, Russell Wilson has kept more people employed in the Seattle organization than Donald Trump did with Carrier in Indiana. Pete Carroll and friends would be long gone without Wilson saving them from the offensive disaster they were creating. Darrell Bevell is the genius behind trading for Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurstand signing Matt Flynn to a huge deal. He was proud of it. Russell Wilson came right after that and saved this coaching staff. The poor decision-making by the coaches manifests itself in watering down what should be the most dominant team in the NFL and makes them just ‘good’. What happened to Seattle at Green Bay and two games prior at Tampa Bay is an embarrassment of effort and planning.

Seattle should win out and wind up 11-4-1 and be celebrated. They’ll be a #2 seed and likely destined for a Dallas showdown for a trip to the Super Bowl. I would not be surprised if Seattle wins it all – they should. They have the best weapons in the NFL top-to-bottom on offense, defense, and special teams. They should be a clear favorite. Instead, they are ‘among the favorites’. I think the coaching is dragging them down to a level they should NOT be at.

Green Bay could be the hottest team in football, and still may not make the playoffs. Their worst scenarios came true this past week when Detroit, Tampa, Washington and the Giants all won. Green Bay has to win out and hope they don’t get into any tie-breakers with Atlanta or Washington (whom they lost to earlier this season). Green Bay’s best hope is that the Lions rough schedule finish drags them back to making Week 17 Green Bay at Detroit for all the marbles in the NFC North. I got a feeling Green Bay is going to find away.

 

— Russell Wilson (22-39 for 240 yards, 1 TD/5 INT) has thrown 2 TD/8 INT the last three weeks. When have you seen Wilson look so awful? We know what Wilson is capable of so there has to be something else afoot.

I blame the O-C because I see Jimmy Graham (1-16-0/4 targets) going to complete waste in this offense. No one, but an NFL offensive coordinator, could possess Jimmy Graham and not figure out how to use him as a massive weapon. Why did Seattle even trade for Graham?

In games where Jimmy Graham has 7 or fewer targets, Seattle is 3-4 this season. They are 5-0-1 in games where he has 8 or more targets. When Graham has 75 or more yards in a game, over his two seasons in Seattle, the team is 7-1 in those games. Yet, it seems every other game Graham goes 1-2 quarters with 0 or 1 targets. Too many games with 5 targets or fewer.

I don’t think the issue is Russell Wilson not wanting to throw it to him.

Wilson’s 5 INTs…

#1: Jimmy Graham fell down to aid the pick by Morgan Burnett.

#2: Great decision by Wilson, amazing play by Damarious Randall on a deep ball.

#3: Potential P.I. on Green Bay, the WR/CB get tangled up as the ball comes in…the ball hit the Packers coverage guy in his shoulder pad and popped into the air and right to another defender.

#4: Right to Baldwin, bounced off his chest and into the air and right to a Green Bay defender’s hands…a defender who had fallen down.

#5: Screen to an RB, easy play, bounces off the RB’s hands and right up into the air and right to a defender.

Wilson should have had one, maybe two picks on the day. The five picks was a lot of bad luck. Two of them were TD throws turned into picks. The lucky INTs helped get Green Bay over, but they were outplaying Seattle despite the gifts.

 

— Ty Montgomery (9-41-0, 3-45-0/4 targets) is becoming the main RB for the Packers (for 2016). They can play around with Starks-Michael, but Montgomery is the best-looking back they have now. He’s the best runner. The most powerful runner. The best receiver out of the backfield. I think he’s going to see more and more carries to end the season to get him ready for the playoffs…as long as GB is still in it. He needs more touches/experience in the backfield.

As Green Bay has a ‘must-win’ in every game the rest of the season it only makes sense to have Ty back there the most – he’s a threat to run or grab a short pass out of the backfield. He’s by far their best weapon in the backfield. The big FF hurdle – RB/FBAaron Ripkowski (3 carries for 2 yards) taking the goal line work.

It would not surprise me to see Christine Michael (10-36-0) get released again. The Packers don’t need to carry this many RBs, and Michael is the likely odd man out. Aren’t you glad I pushed you to trade him during his Seattle hot streak? You did, didn’t you?

 

Snap counts in this game:

30 = Montgomery

24 = Ripkowski

17 =Michael

07 = Starks

 

— Speaking of Jimmy Graham (1-16-0/4 targets). I assume he will demand a trade…or just be traded. Possibly, he could be cut. He is due to make $10M next year, and would cost almost nothing to release him. He’s not due any guaranteed money after this season with one-year remaining on his deal (2017).

For some reason, this situation is one where Graham can get ignored every other game, and no one seems to care. I’m pretty sure he wants out. I don’t know why Seattle would pay him $10M for what they get/use from him. He could change a franchise in an instant if he lands in the right place.

Seattle won’t be so dumb as to trade him to a legit contender. So he’s like to go to the AFC and a weaker team. Put me down for a deal to the NY Jets next season. Possibly to Cleveland.

I’m not kidding or having fun with this topic. One day we woke up to find Jimmy Graham traded from New Orleans. It’s going to happen here, only not as much a surprise. I think this will be a heavy rumor all offseason/pre-draft.

 

— Don’t look now but the Green Bay Packers’ defense is coming into its own and is fantasy useful. Top 10 FF plays the next two weeks potentially.

In their last three games, they’ve allowed opponents: 13-13-10 for points in games. They are getting several players back on defense the past few weeks, and the offense is controlling the field a la what Dallas does…an offense that helps their defense by limiting the defense’s time on the field.

Week 15: In the freezing cold versus Matt Barkley

Week 16: In the freezing cold versus Sam Bradford

This Packers defense was always talented. They were one of the DSTs we were OK to start fantasy 2016 with if we couldn’t get Denver, but that theory quickly crumbled as they lost several key guys right away. Now, they’re peaking at the right time. Five picks, 3.0 sacks, and 9 QB hits on Green Bay on Seattle in this game.

Tags:

About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>