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Fantasy-Dynasty Game Recap 2016 Week 15: Patriots v. Denver

January 19, 2018 11:19 AM
December 24, 2016 8:49 AM

What amazes me about this game – the Patriots went into Denver and kinda beat Denver at its own game. A 19–3 Patriots’ win led by the defense. Denver kicked an early FG…and that’s all she wrote. You know the Pats are good to get more than three points in a game.

The Patriots are amazing. You want to get into a shootout, they’ll oblige. You want to get into a defensive battle…here they are – the #1 defense in PPG allowed in the NFL. A defense constructed of mostly waiver wire grabs, giveaway trades, UDFAs, and middle-of-the-draft picks. How much smarter they are than the rest of the NFL is mindboggling.

New England could sew up the #1 seed this weekend, and have a free week off…so they can lay down to Miami, and let the Dolphins in…to keep the Broncos and others out.

Denver is reeling. If they lose to KC this weekend, they could fall to the #12 spot in the AFC standings. Denver has to win out, but I don’t think they can win out versus KC-OAK. That’s a tall order/tough schedule for a team that cannot run the ball.


— Let’s look at the DSTs for this week…

The Patriots are a universal top pick for Week 16 facing Bryce Petty. It could get very ugly, very fast this week for the Jets. You have to rate the Patriots DST at the top this week.

Denver’s DST is a bit of a conundrum this week. Denver’s defense is sensational…they just held Brady to 50% completion percentage, no TD passes and less than 200 yards. What do you think they’ll do to Alex Smith? However, Smith does not turn the ball over. He doesn’t offer easy points like a Bryce Petty is apt to do. If Denver can stop Tyreek Hill, they might shut out KC. I’m fine with the Denver DST this week.


— I could be wrong, but I don’t believe this is the start of Dion Lewis (18-95-0, 2-9-0/3 targets) as a 15+ carry per game RB. I think this was a special game plan for Denver, who are gods against the pass and not so hot against the run. This was a fresh wrinkle from Belichick and it confused the Broncos just enough.

In his last 10 games, before this contest, as a Patriot, Lewis’s high for carries in a game was 8 totes. High this season before this game – 6 carries.

I think it is a one-time event.


— Justin Forsett (1-37-0, 4-16-0/5 targets) had another stellar game for the Broncos. Instead of adding Forsett with Devontae Booker, and then bringing Terrell Watson up off the practice squad and seeing if his power style was more suited to cure the Broncos run game woes…Denver sold out to Forsett because ‘Kubiak’. They dragged their feet on Watson, and Philly stole him from them.

You will not convince me that Doug Pederson and/or the Eagles organization did not do Andy Reid ‘a solid’ by stripping Denver of Watson. Denver has nothing at running back…literally, nothing going into KC this week. Watson might have been a shock performer if given the chance, but they’ll never know. They stripped Denver and forced them to stay with Forsett-Booker. It’s brilliant…and down the tubes go the Broncos because Kubiak loves Forsett. I’m surprised he doesn’t resurrect Owen Daniels to play TE this weekend.


— Malcolm Mitchell (1-14-0/1 target) had a bad game against Denver…so does every WR. No big deal.

In the four games before Denver, when Mitchell ascended after Gronk went down – 5.3 rec. (6.8 targets) for 65.8 yards and 1.0 TDs per game. He was white hot, but that was paused by Denver. He picks right back up against the Jets Week 16.


— Logan Ryan (7 tackles, 1INT) was hot early for IDP and then disappeared midseason. Well, he’s back – 6.5 tackles and 0.8 PDs per game the past four weeks.


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>