ffm logo

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

Get the app

Fantasy-Dynasty Game Recap 2016 Week 15: Titans v. Chiefs

Date:
January 19, 2018 11:48 AM
December 21, 2016 5:37 PM

No team deserved to lose more than the Kansas City Chiefs this week…a stunning 19–17 loss at home, in the cold. Everything favored the Chiefs, except we forgot about one little item – all non-Belichick head coaches are totally out of their minds. You know where I’m going with this…

Three minutes into the game, Tyreek Hill lines up in the backfield and takes a traditional handoff and blasts past everyone for a 68-yard TD run. At that point, I’m thinking that Hill will have 200+ yards and 2+ TDs by game’s end. I’m already assuming we’re all winning every league we have Tyreek rolling in…

…he never ran the ball again or caught a pass the rest of the game. Just three targets over the final 57 minutes of play after his long TD run. Unconscionable.

Tennessee answered that Hill run right back driving down the field with a great Rishard Matthews 46-yard catch-and-run down to the five-yard line, but then he fumbled it away killing the momentum/drive. KC capitalized on the gift from Tennessee, and 4+ minutes left in the first quarter it was 14–0 KC…the rout was on.

Over the next 49 minutes, Tennessee won the game with a 19–3 finish and a 19–17 win.

Here’s the KC insanity in a nutshell…

KC up 17–16 with 3+ minutes left. They start a final drive…a first down would do wonders for sewing up a sure victory. Here are the three plays they run…

Spencer Ware for a five-yard run.

Ware out, Charcandrick West in for what reason I have no idea…three-yard run.

3rd & 2, game on the line…KC runs an Alex Smith + Ware option play…like a college play. It gets strung out and Smith keeps it and is hit for no gain. Time to punt. Three straight running plays…and Tyreek Hill was not on the field for any of them. Would the Steelers run three crucial plays without Le’Veon Bell and/or Antonio Brown on the field? Tyreek Hill has been performing at MVP levels for weeks…he’s the only reason KC has a chance to make the playoffs…he is the offense…and he’s not on the field. “He’s just a little guy that we run gadget plays for…isn’t he cute. Look at the defense, they have no idea!” Does the depth of NFL head coaches know no depths of utter stupidity? I would at least have Hill in as at least a decoy. Not the Chiefs. Charcandrick West needs touches…because they’re so fruitful…on some other planet, I guess. Nothing like telegraphing you’re going to run the ball by only having one WR (Maclin) on the field three times in a row.

So, the Chiefs don’t get the first down, and they punt. Tennessee then drives down the field for a last-second FG and the win. I’d be so pissed as a Chiefs fan. You blew a golden chance at an AFC West title and a bye because your coaches are too stupid to get the best player they have, one of the 10 most dangerous players in the league, onto the field in the most critical of situations. KC deserves the wild card…or worse.

 

— So, what do you do with Tyreek Hill (1-68-0, 0-0-0/3 targets) this championship week? Last week, he was in our top 10 projections. This week he’s a WR2/3 projection. Why?

We should rate Tyreek higher this week because he has been one of the best fantasy producers in the NFL for several weeks. I think I heard he’s the #2 fantasy WR of the past six to eight weeks. I’m not fact-checking that…I know he’s been great.

On the other hand, we have the KC coaches being total fools last week. One carry? Can you imagine our discussions on this if Hill had been tackled in the backfield on that play? What if Tyreek had no catches and -3 yards rushing last week? How would that affect your decision? But he didn’t. Hill is TDs in a bottle. Even on limited touches. I don’t need him to get 15 targets, but 7+ would be nice. Will he get them this week?

How much do we fear facing Denver? Hey! 3 TDs last time he played Denver! My fear is Denver will build their entire defense around stopping Hill. “No way he gets 3 TDs on us,” they’ll screech, and pound their chests. Maclin and Ware could score 9 TDs combined as Denver loses by 50+ and they’d be so proud that Hill didn’t score a TD – that’s the NFL. I got the best D in the NFL trying to stop Hill…and Hill’s own coaches. Why am I trying to use a guy for FF that everyone wants to stop in the NFL…including his own coaches apparently?

Because he’s Tyreek Hill… That’s the answer to most of the questions.

If you have strong other options, I totally get it – I fear the matchup and Andy Reid from last week too. I get it, but it’s Tyreek Hill…one of the best, most dangerous players in all of football. It was the proper Brandin Cooks argument for last week (that I ignored) – “But it’s Brandin Freaking Cooks!” Except Hill has been treated much better by his coaches over the past 4-5-6 weeks.

The Hill argument for Week 15 is kinda like my Jimmy Graham one, if you ask…come on, it’s Jimmy Freaking GrahamCharles Clay is not an option for a Week 16 title game. My general belief is if you have two guys to pick from to start Hill and…Tyrell Williams or Malcolm Mitchell or Terrelle Pryor or Jordan Matthews or Spencer Ware, etc., and you’re tossing and turning on who to play because of the matchup and the weather… The tiebreaker on the decision is – it’s Tyreek Freaking Hill…the guy who has been better than all but one fantasy WR the last X amount of weeks.

It’s hard starting ‘he’s due’ guy because of the matchup and benching the uber-productive Hill because we’re nervous. We have every right to be nervous, but when making the coin-flip choice…let’s side with the guy who has been producing like a fantasy MVP for weeks…even on one touch in a game.

 

—  Do you start Spencer Ware (18-70-0, 3-25-0/3 targets) this week? I don’t know – how many guys do you have to choose from who get 20+ touches a game?

You’re gonna get 70–110 total yards, 2–3 catches. And you pray for a TD run or two. If you got guys in better situations than that…go with them. Ware has been super-consistent…but also consistently not scoring TDs or having off-the-chart days. If you need a boost, he may not be your man. If you need steady with the hope of a TD on top of it…you could do a lot worse.

 

— Rishard Matthews (4-105-0/10 targets) is so great. I am so happy he is finally flourishing. He’s deserved it and should sue Miami for lost wages for what they did to him. I love him, but I can’t start him with confidence against Jalen Ramsey Week 16.

Four catches for 38 yards and a TD the last time they met. Spencer Ware will about give you the same FF points without a TD.

 

— Marcus Mariota (19-33 for 241 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) has found his way onto some leagues’ waivers because of all the bad matchups of late. Don’t get conned into thinking Jacksonville Week 16 is sweet relief. The Jags are #4 against the pass this season. You’d be hoping he scored a rushing TD to make hay of it.

The weather is good for his Week 16, and it is a must-win game…so I like what Mariota’s going to have to do, but this is not a great matchup — especially if the Titans get up early and try to sit on the Jags.

 

— KC IDP Steven Nelson (8 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 PD) is nearly DB1 material suddenly. Six or more tackles in four of his last five games, and 5.8 tackles per game in that span. What’s even better – the PDs…15 PDs this season and 1.4 PDs per game the past five games. He gets TFLs too!! 0.6 TFLs per game the last five games. Teams pick on him and he gets numbers…a simple formula.

Tags:

About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>