ffm logo

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

Get the app

Fantasy-Dynasty Week 14: Sunday, Every Game Recap Quick Notes and Top 5’s

Date:
January 19, 2018 1:50 PM
December 12, 2016 12:11 PM

Hey… If you’re shopping for deal off Amazon, and why wouldn’t you, please considering clicking through our FFM-Amazon link to do your Amazon shopping. It does not change your experience whatsoever, but it gives us some credit off each purchase — and that helps keep costs down on all of our wonderful products. I should be charging double.

Click this link below, and then do your business. Also, if you have a friend or relative or significant other that does all the Cyber shopping, and is not in your fantasy league — copy and paste and send the link to them and force them to use it, or disown them for their blatant disloyalty.

Thank you!

Link to Amazon for FFM: (link) FFM link to Amazon

======================

Note – these are quick notes on every game Sunday, based on my watching of them all at the same time. I could have missed a lot of nuances that I’ll discover on the re-watch this week, but to get out of the gates on the fantasy week – here’s what I (think I) saw, in no particular order

 

What an insane week. The most bizarre pattern of fantasy scoring this week of this, or any season I’ve ever recorded. We’ve never seen anything like this. If you lost a playoff game because of it – it sucks because nothing about this week was normal. If you won, count your blessings…and depth…and good fortune playing X over Y. Thank Tyreek Hill.

 

ARI-MIA

— I’m guessing Ryan Tannehill is out for the rest of the season (ROS) with an ACL tear. He was in street clothes at the end of the game and had some people coming up and hugging him. The look on Tannehill’s face was telling. If Matt Moore is the QB for the ROS – you can’t trust any Miami weapon. Jay Ajayi will be super-stacked against by opposing defenses. Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker will have random moments. We don’t know who Moore will go to primarily, but Moore has a difficult time getting it to people general…so distrust everything until you see otherwise.

— You would think the Miami offense is a hot thing to start your DST against, but two ‘dead’ teams take them on the next two weeks – at Jets and at Bills. Miami has everything to play for; the Jets and Bills are done.

— J.J. Nelson scored 2 TDs, a run TD and a pass-catch TD…but the Cards gave him only three touches. I didn’t see any signs of a fresh or purposed approach. I’m not buying into him or back into him.

QBs combined: 5 TD/4 INT, both under 200 yards passing.

 

PIT-BUF

— Assume mediocre fantasy numbers from Ben Roethlisberger for fantasy for the ROS. Hope for the best, but ‘things’ are working against him now. This has been building. The Steelers are simply killing opponents running Le’Veon Bell…so they don’t stop…and the opponents can’t stop Bell. There is no more carefree Ben this year; he’s not needed. Two big division rivals in the cold the next two weeks does not bode well for Ben having to throw 40+ times for 300+ yards in a game either.

— The Bills are officially done, so they’ll go into the tank. It’s very possible Rex Ryan is fired by the time you read this. The Bills DST versus the Browns goes from ‘great’ to ‘good-ish’ next week now that their season is mostly over. Sammy Watkins is likely to go on the shelf the rest of the way, and that hurts Tyrod Taylor’s fantasy usefulness as well.

— Ladarius Green didn’t have a big game, but he did get the second-most targets on the team behind Antonio’s 6 targets. Sloppy conditions and TEs blocking for Le’Veon led to a mediocre game. No reason to get too down on Green because of this.

QBs combined: 2 TD/4 INT, both under 230 yards passing (running tally of games on this recap so far 7 TD/8 INT)

 

DEN-TEN

— Like I said last week – it isn’t a Devontae Booker issue in the Denver run game. It is a blocking issue. Ancient Justin Forsettcertainly wasn’t going to solve that. He didn’t in this game. There is a RB ‘controversy’ now, but who really wants either of them for fantasy? If I had to, I’ll take Forsett because Kubiak is a loyalist to his own peril.

— Because of the bad run game, and because of the nice receiving weapons – Trevor Siemian is becoming a legit QB2 thought. No longer an ‘ignore’ QB on waivers. Back-to-back 330+ yard passing games for Siemian.

— As predicted by the world – Mariota and Matthews would not fare well against the Broncos, and they were awful (fantasy-wise) in this game. It doesn’t get any easier – at cold KC next week, and then trouble with the top 3 ranked pass defense of Jacksonville (at JAC).

QBs combined: 1 TD/0 INT, Mariota 88 yards passing (running tally 8 TD/8 INT, 5 of 6 under 240 yards passing)

 

WAS-PHI

— As soon as he was ready/healthy the Eagles went right back to Ryan Mathews as their lead RB. I expect he will be again next week, as Philly tries to stop their losing skid. The problem – the Eagles go at the #1 run defense of the Ravens next week.

— The one thing going for the Eagles fantasy weapons – Philly is so awful that Carson Wentz is having to throw 40+ times per game routinely. Lots of cheap catches for Zach Ertz and Jordan Matthews the next few weeks.

— I’ll have to re-watch the tape to see how much of the low Jordan Reed game was him being ignored or used as a decoy, or whether it was just a stingy Eagles defense against the TE…about all they’re stingy against anymore.

QBs combined: 3 TD/2 INT (running tally 11 TD/10 INT, 6 of 8 under 240 yards passing)

 

SD-CAR

— Who’s the Chargers’ RB of note going forward (assuming Melvin Gordon out)? Facing Oakland and Cleveland the next two weeks – it is an opportunity. Kenneth Farrow is decent. I mean if people can excited about Robert Kelley, then Farrow can be useful for a few games. Not super-fast, but he’s shifty and strong. He is the backup today and has an inside track to start for Gordon. Ronnie Hillman backs him up, and former Giants’ bruiser Andre Williams is on the practice squad.

Farrow can work for those in need. Oakland and Cleveland the next two weeks are nice matchups.

From my ‘6 things’ posting on FantasyPros today…

 

How Excited Should We Be About Kenneth Farrow?

With Melvin Gordon possibly done for weeks/the season attention turns to the Chargers’ backup RB Kenneth Farrow.

Farrow was the starting running back for the University of Houston in 2014-2015. In 2014, Houston moved from traditional offense to a running QB spread. Farrow had his best college season (1,042 rushing yards and 15 TDs) but really took off when the offensive switch was made midseason – Farrow rushed for 9 TDs in his last four games of the 2014 season, including 103 yards and 2 TDs in their bowl game win. He had a solid but unspectacular college career.

Farrow was not invited to the 2016 NFL Combine. At his Pro Day, he ran a below-average NFL 40-time (4.59) but measured with NFL agility times and above average strength (22 bench reps) and vertical (38″). He went undrafted and caught on with the Chargers. After Danny Woodhead went down, Farrow became a little-used backup to Melvin Gordon (20 carries for 70 yards and 1 catch in 10 games) this season. Filling in for the injured Gordon for most of Week 14, Farrow ran 16 times for 55 yards, but more impressively he caught passes on 6 targets.

Farrow has a similar size and athleticism to Gordon, arguably a better athlete than Gordon but without the Big Ten pedigree or scouting status. In my scouting, I wouldn’t call him a future star, but I would say he is capable. With the Chargers’ season already ‘done’, I would not think the coaches would push third-string Ronnie Hillman over him. I’d expect Farrow to see 20+ carries and 3-5+ targets in games ahead, similar to Gordon. Considering that Farrow faces the #26 run defense of Oakland and #31 Cleveland the next two weeks – I think there’s enough to get excited about here for a fantasy. Solid talent. Possible heavy workload. Favorable matchups ahead.  

 

— Tyrell Williams looks fine. This was Philip Rivers doing whatever it is Philip Rivers does…throwing more to Carolina’s defense than to Tyrell Williams, I guess. Williams falls to WR2/WR3 considering Rivers has forgotten who Williams is the past two weeks.

— Cam Newton 10-of-27…Kelvin Benjamin 1 catch on 4 targets. I want nothing to do with this passing game the rest of the season.

QBs combined: 3 TD/4 INT (running tally 14 TD/14 INT, 8 of 10 under 240 yards passing)

 

CIN-CLE

— Robert Griffin is awful and thus you can mark down Terrelle Pryor to WR3 at best and forget Corey Coleman ever existed in a redraft for the ROS. I love Pryor but the Browns are getting their stink all over him.

— Like I’ve said…the Bengals have no plan for Rex Burkhead – 2 targets, 1 catch in this game. He cannot be trusted for fantasy. Can’t wait for him to land on another team next season.

— Jamie Collins will be giving it his all heading into his final weeks before free agency – 15 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 2 TFLs in this game. Maybe the best LB IDP play the rest of the way as he tries to rack numbers to impress for negotiations.

QBs combined: 2 TD/1 INT, both QBs under 180 yards passing (running tally 16 TD/15 INT, 10 of 12 under 240 yards passing)

 

CHI-DET

— Good game from Dwayne Washington. Nice, tough running inside, but didn’t pop anything for big fantasy numbers. Another step forward, a baby step…he was turned to as the main RB in Theo Riddick’s absence. 16 tough, hard-hitting runs up the middle for Washington. I’ll only be interested in him in redraft off waivers this week if Riddick’s injury is long term.

— I didn’t think TE Daniel Brown would matter for fantasy this season, but he looks really good with Matt Barkley. He’s trying to get into the TE1 discussions. Long-term, Brown’s end-of-season performance is encouraging for 2017+.

— Another nice game from IDP Akiem Hicks 6 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 1.0 PDs – he has 3.0 sacks in his last two games.

QBs combined: 2 TD/3 INT, both QBs under 230 yards passing (running tally 18 TD/18 INT, 12 of 14 under 240 yards passing)

 

HOU-IND

— Andrew Luck got hit 13 times, but only officially sacked once. He is getting blasted on plays, his receivers are never open, Philip Dorsett cannot catch…and somehow Luck puts up respectable numbers. If they ever make a change at head coach and GM (likely at the end of this season, after this critical loss), Luck has a chance to be the best in the game…and the best in fantasy.

— The Colts’ run defense is an embarrassment. 185 yards allowed this week. 148 yards rushing to Pittsburgh on Thanksgiving…and that’s with Steelers ‘taking it easy’. Week 15 the Colts face Jerick McKinnon…or Adrian Peterson?

— Donte Moncrief…0 catches on 4 targets. Never liked him. He should have stepped up this week, and prior weeks and all he does is grab a TD here and there. He has registered one game this season over 55 yards in a game…and that was 64 yards on opening day.

QBs combined: 2 TD/3 INT (running tally 20 TD/21 INT, 13 of 16 under 240 yards passing)

 

MIN-JAC

— Possible shift in focus on the offense/pass game for Minnesota – Jerick McKinnon averaged 1.5 catches per game the first 10 games this season…with a high of 3 catches in a game. The past two games – 11 catches (5.5 per game). As mentioned previously, this upcoming week JMK has the Colts – it could be a hot week for Jerick. Unless Adrian Peterson is back…unlikely, but not impossible.

— How good is Jalen RamseyStefon Diggs was held to one of his worst games of the season. DeAndre Hopkins shutdown coming Week 15, and Rishard Matthews in Week 16.

— Should we take Adam Thielen seriously now? 101 yards this game, and 6.0 catches (7.5 targets) for 76.3 yards and 0.25 TDs per game the past four games. He is the new Jordy Nelson…but finally getting targeted better. I’m not totally trusting this latest bump, but I’m hopeful…just 5 targets in this game.

QBs combined: 2 TD/0 INT (running tally 22 TD/21 INT, 13 of 18 under 240 yards passing)

 

NYJ-SF

— The Jets should put Matt Forte on the shelf for his own good. No need to push him to the finish line. The Jets played with much more spark once they sat veterans for the youngsters. If Forte is out next week, you have to like Bilal Powell versus Miami. I would argue Powell is the better RB over Forte right now, on the field.

— OK, Robby Anderson it is!! I guess Bryce Petty is going there heavy. I was pretty sure Marshall-Enunwa would die, but I wasn’t sure about Anderson. Good matchup, I guess, for Petty-Anderson next week against the Tannehill-less Dolphins.

— The Jets played so bad in this game for three-quarters, I cannot believe they came back and won…except ‘there’s Colin Kaepernick for you‘. An NFL joke. Facing a team (the Jets) that had given up for the season and gave over two quick TDs to the 49ers, Kaepernick did virtually nothing after that. All the people thinking he would be a slick play this week…not so much. Better than Russell WilsonDrew Brees, or Ben Roethlisberger though.

QBs combined: 1 TD/1 INT (running tally 23 TD/22 INT, 14 of 20 under 240 yards passing)

 

ATL-LA

— Over the past three weeks, the Rams have lost three games by a combined score of 117–45…and the games haven’t been that close. Maybe ownership will add another two years to the Jeff Fisher deal after this gem? Maybe Colin Kaepernick vs. LA in Week 16 will work? The Rams have beyond quit on the coaches. Todd Gurley and Tavon Austin were seen on camera screaming at coaches on the sidelines.

— Devonta Freeman…I don’t know what happened. I like it, but I’m not sure what’s up as of this writing. He wasn’t starting out so hot, and Tevin Coleman came in and looked great, as usual, scoring 2 TDs. I think it was a blowout quickly and they just parked Freeman.

— Five TDs in his last 6 games for Taylor Gabriel. He’s Tyreek Hill-lite.

QBs combined: 3 TD/2 INT (running tally 26 TD/24 INT, 16 of 22 under 240 yards passing)

 

NO-TB

— This Brandin Cooks game is worse than you think. It was an OK performance, and he had the most targets on the team, plus a dropped short TD – but there was something deeper at work here. I will detail it further in the game recap. All I can tell you is – there are major problems here. You should ‘run’. Up your Willie Snead stock in PPR.

— Drew Brees…back-to-back games totaling 0 TD/6 INT. Last five games, 9 TD/9 INT. Faces dead Arizona Week 15 and then back against suddenly rugged Tampa Week 16. The Saints offense looks terrible…starting roughly around the time after the Cooks ‘zero target game’.

— IDP Keith Tandy in two weeks (Weeks 13–14) as a starter/heavy snap playing player…

Week 13: 5 tackles, 1 INT, 1 PD

Week 14: 9 tackles, 1 INT, 3 PDs

7.0 tackles, 1.0 INTs, 2.0 PDs per game.

QBs combined: 0 TD/3 INT (running tally 26 TD/27 INT, 17 of 24 under 240 yards passing)

 

 

SEA-GB

— Ty Montgomery looks like a legit RB…definitely the best RB on the Packers. I thought he looked out of place as a runner when they first started this ‘project’. Now, he looks like their best back…and there is not a ton of competition. Montgomery took the first carry of the game, and he also got the goal line look (and a TD), not the other guys. Throw in what he does in the passing game – this works in PPR.

— There was nothing good from this game for Russell Wilson, but I have to mention – of his career high 5 INTs…3–4 of them were ‘hit a guy in the chest/hands, and the ball popped up in the air for a pick’ kind of moments. You want to get away from Wilson…but he has the LA Rams Week 15.

— The connection between Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams is becoming a beautiful thing to watch. It’s not a blip – it’s a real thing. Like near WR1 type of thing.

QBs combined: 4 TD/5 INT (running tally 30 TD/32 INT, 17 of 26 under 240 yards passing)

 

DAL-NYG

— I’m sure many people are going to have the same narrative after watching this, or will after a few start saying it – the Giants defense won this game. Winners of seven of their last eight games, and held opponents to 20 points or less in six of those games. I think you can play the NYG DST hosting the Lions in the cold next week, and then for sure at Philly Week 16.

— Give it up for Janoris Jenkins as a shutdown corner. In two games against Dez Bryant, this season – 2 catches on 14 targets for 18 yards total.

— IDP rookie Romeo Okwara was an NFL Combine invite but ran so slow (4.90) that his draft stock as a DE fell. He didn’t look like speed was an issue in this game filling in for Jason Pierre-Paul. Okwara was rather impressive  — 8 tackles and 1.0 sack, 1 TFL, 1 PD against the best O-Line in the business.

Wrapping up all 14 games…

QBs combined: 2 TD/3 INT, both QBs under 200 yards passing (running tally 32 TD/35 INT, 19 of 28 under 240 yards passing)

It was not a bad week for YOUR quarterback…it was a bad week for most all of them.

  

 

Top 5 guys to have some belief in off waivers:

5) Robby Anderson – It’s on!!

4) Ty Montgomery – Best RB in green Bay…I can’t believe I’m typing that.

3) Trevor Siemian – QB2 emergency

2) Kenneth Farrow – Will see 20+ touches if Melvin Gordon out

1) Bilal Powell – If Matt Forte goes on the shelf he might be an RB1 for the ROS

 

 

Top 5 waiver ‘con jobs’:

5) Justin Forsett – An awful RB splitting touches behind an awful O-Line. Yeah!!!

4) Christine Michael – Sunday v. Seattle was his last, real chance.

3) Shane Vereen – Coming back to a bit role, if he can ever stay healthy.

2) Kenny Stills – Dead for sure with Matt Moore.

1) Brandon LaFell – now the schedule gets harder (PIT and HOU).

 

Top 5 Deep Sleeper pickups:

5) Brandon Wilds – If Forte done.

4) Adrian Peterson – I don’t believe he is coming back until Weeks 17 or playoffs, but he might be back this week…he’s trying.

3) Terrell Watson – if Bibbs out, and Watson called up.

2) Daniel Brown – Still showing signs of a possible top 15 TE ahead.

1) Jerick McKinnon – Only one reason: versus the Colts this week.

 

Top 5 fringe guys it’s OK to give up on for now:

5) Corey Coleman (redraft) – Because of #3 on the list.

4) Rex Burkhead (redraft) – They have no plan for him.

3) Robert Griffin – Officially done. Worse than Kaepernick

2) Marquess Wilson – Never has any consistency of performance or health.

1) Colin Kaepernick – Let us never speak of his name again.

Tags:

About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>