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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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Fantasy Football Metrics

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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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2018 All Picks ATS (Week 6)…

October 11, 2018

Contest Records ATS through Week 5:

45-28-5 = Savage

43-30-5 = Katz

40-33-5 = Skol

40-33-5 = Rabbitt

35-38-5 = RC

*8-5-1 when the group is 5-0 agreement on a pick (all picks not submitted yet, so no plays yet to report)

Blazing Five Contest:

17-7-1 = Katz

14-8-3 = Savage

14-10-1 = Colin Cowherd

13-11-1 = Skolman

12-12-1 = RC

10-13-2 = Rabbitt

*7-2-0 = When 3 or more of the group agrees on a B5 pick (B5 picks made Friday/reported Saturday, we’ll see if we have any).


2018 All Picks ATS (Week 6)…

Another .500-ish week across the board last week. Nailed big bets on ARI and DET -- and had the big bet TEN cover/win stolen from me by Nick Williams inability to catch a football wide-open in the end zone (cut after the game). Overall, all picks a .500 ish week for The Computer. In our contest I’m 12-12-1 on the B5 and 35-38-5 picking all games ATS. ‘Meh’ in our site contest, but a big week with ARI and DET last week to pull ahead in real wagering.

Adding to that, my over-under win total teams are on fire – CHI-CIN-NO…a combined 11-3 and all on pace to take down their ‘over’ bets we made this summer. I’m very pleased with season…holding Super Bowl and various division title tickets on the Rams and Bears. Real life is great for betting 2018…our contest, I can’t get seem to get past .500. There’s time to make a run.

This week is a very odd read from The Computer. Most everything it really likes also has all the injury reports going for it (the opponent is racked with injury problems) as well. It’s like it’s too good to be true. This is either a good week that starts swinging my picks to stronger winning percentages or I’m going to get blown out and left wonder if The Computer had a great read on 2017 overall but can’t replicate it for 2018.

Here’s Week 6 through the eyes of The Computer, or you could just flip coins and have the same hit rate overall…but ‘we’re due’ and big bets are starting to payoff…

ARI at MIN (-10.5)

The Computer Says: MIN by 27.4 (16.9 point spread differential)

Not a position on the field where Minnesota doesn’t have the advantage, except RB, but Arizona doesn’t use their RB properly anyway. This is one of the better teams in the NFL hosting, arguably, the worst. 10+ point spread home favorites are 4-1 win/loss and 3-2 ATS. Arizona being one of the away dogs that got smoked by 3x the spread (v. the Rams). 10.5 is A LOT to give up but Arizona is so terrible right now.

Also, note – the Cardinals entire O-Line is messed up with injury. This could be a bloodbath.

Besides the Buffalo debacle, the Vikings have scored 26.5 PPG this season…if MIN gets to 25+ points, I don’t believe Arizona can score more than 14 against them.

PIT at CIN (2.5)

The Computer Says: PIT by 9.8 (12.3 point spread differential)

The Computer absolutely swears this is a Steelers ‘upset’ win on the road. A big spot where Cincy can almost put the Steelers away/take a big step ahead in the AFC North…essentially a 3-game lead over PIT with a win. This is where the classic Mike Tomlin Steelers are the better team and rise up when the public is against them/have their backs against a wall.

This feels like the best bet of the week. Cincy has played a good half Week 2 vs. BAL and otherwise they’ve been engaged in shootouts with losing record teams or dying teams (like ATL and MIA last two weeks, and they were a bit lucky in them).

KC at NE (-3.5)

The Computer Says: KC by 6.1 (9.6 point spread differential)

The thing about this game is not so much how good KC is, or Mahomes, etc. – it’s how bad the Patriots are. In a shootout give me the better team/offense plus points. KC wins this…they are likely to get home field through the playoffs – and that could very much mean they are going to the Super Bowl. The Pats can lose this and be fine with their easy schedule.

CHI (-3.0) at MIA

The Computer Says: CHI by 12.2 (9.2 point spread differential)

If the Bears rollover in this game, coming off the momentum of Week 4, losing to an inferior team…shame on them. Because the public doesn’t believe in the Bears, like they didn’t on the emerging Rams/Jags of 2017, the lines are always lacking on the Bears so far. Chicago can win this with just their defense, but if the offense comes to play this is a blowout for CHI.

BUF at HOU (-10.0)

The Computer Says: HOU by 18.5 (8.5 point spread differential)

This game seems like a trap door. Buffalo is mocked by people, but they are a 2017 playoff team that is sitting 2-3…still people don’t like them…but it’s not like Houston is anything special. The Texans have won two games in a row…but are lucky to have not lost them both (two OT wins) and be sitting 0-5. Buffalo is just so terrible on so many internal number levels and if they are missing Tre’Davious White then it’s over for the Bills.

IND at NYJ (-2.5)

The Computer Says: IND by 5.3 (7.8 point spread differential)

The Colts had a chance to be 4-1 at this point of the season. They’ve played every game tough – hanging with better teams, rallying from big deficits. They dominated AT Washington, and had AT Philly beat but it slipped away late. Even played AT New England tough missing half their team. A fully healthy Colts team blows out the Jets, but Indy still has a lot of injuries they’re dealing with. The Jets may be the worst off – down two CBs possibly.

The Computer loves what the Colts are doing/the internal numbers too much to not take +2.5 vs. Darnold.

SF at GB (-9.5)

The Computer Says: GB by 17.2 (7.7 point spread differential)

At Green Bay on MNF…a superior Packers team with Aaron Rodgers vs. a battered, inferior 49ers team. Jump on the under 10.0 while it lasts. The sneaky edge here is the improving GB defense…and they should have both starting CBs back.

JAC (-3.0) at DAL

The Computer Says: JAC by 9.4 (6.4 point spread differential)

I don’t know how Dallas scores more than 10 points here. The second worst offense in the NFL, arguably, facing the top defense. Can the Jags get to 14 and cover? Yes.

LAC (-1.0) at CLE

The Computer Says: CLE by 3.3 (4.3 point spread differential)

People are using their pre-Baker mindset on the Browns and still clinging to the fantasy that the Chargers are really good. The Browns have a better defense, QB, and home field. Yes, I said better QB. The new era elite passers are 16-2 record this season. Mayfield should be 3-0 already, not 2-1. The new era Browns are just better than the Chargers, period. LAC has wins over BUF, OAK, SF…nothing impressive.

CAR at WAS (-1.0)

The Computer Says: CAR by 1.3 (2.3 point spread differential)

Hate everything about picking/betting this game. This once screams of a Redskins bounce back off that MNF disaster and Carolina is due to lose, but The Computer says Carolina is the play.

TB at ATL (3.5)

The Computer Says: ATL by 1.5 (2.0 point spread differential)

I was surprised The Computer had this so close. The Falcons are due…but their internal numbers are so bad, and the Bucs’ numbers are OK, but hard to read going forward with Winston. I’m staying away from betting this.

PHI (-3.0) at NYG

The Computer Says: PHI by 1.4 (1.6 point spread differential)

TNF home teams are 5-0 win-loss for the game, 4-0-1 ATS…BUT they have all been home favorites. This is the first home underdog TNF game. The Giants slide right into the weak NFC East title hunt with a win here…it’s a brand-new season OR it’s about over depending on the outcome for NYG. Playoff atmosphere! However, can you see the Eagles losing three in-a-row? I wouldn’t bet this game with a 10-foot pole.

BAL (-3.0) at TEN

The Computer Says: BAL by 4.0 (1.0 point spread differential)

I’m not a fan of the Ravens, but less of a fan of the Titans. I’d just avoid betting this game.

LAR (-7.0) at DEN

The Computer Says: LAR by 7.9 (0.9 point spread differential)

Never easy to play AT Denver. The Rams are a war machine on offense, but their defense has not been all that reliable. We like the Rams but not as much as I thought we would. Denver has some O-Line injuries on top of other problems.

SEA (-3.0) v. OAK

The Computer Says: SEA by 3.7 (0.7 point spread differential)

I don’t know why The Computer sees things with the Raiders…they look randomly mediocre and awful to my eye. However, Seattle is nothing special either. The lack of pressure on Wilson will be a first this season – Seattle has a bad O-Line, but Oakland has the worst pass rush. I’ll roll with not-hurried Wilson over Carr/Gruden.


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>