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2018 Blazing Five Picks (Week 3)
Blazing Five (through Week 2):
8-1-1 = Katz
6-4-0 = Colin Cowherd
5-4-1 = RC
5-4-1 = Savage
3-5-2 = Rabbitt
3-6-1 = Skolman
2018 Week 3 Blazing Five…
*I’m 16-15-2 ATS through Week 2, and 5-4-1 in the Blazing Five YTD, 3-0 on TNF games!
*Dallas was on my Blazing Five yesterday, but for my official today – I have to take them out based on the Sean Lee questionable issue. No Sean Lee – Dallas sucks when he’s out.
LAC at LAR (-7.0)
The Computer Says: LAR by 10.7 (3.7 point spread differential)
The replacement for Dallas. The Rams are such a superior team…7 points at home versus the Chargers is nothing. The Chargers have no Bosa and cannot stop the run. All they’ve done this season is beat Buffalo for 2.5 quarters. Big deal.
The public still undervalues Goff, the Rams…and overvalued the Chargers as a ‘sneaky’ great team for 2018.
CHI (-5.0) at ARI
The Computer Says: CHI by 12.2 (7.2 point spread differential)
This went from one of our faves to THE FAVE when the line dropped to 5.0 Friday morning. San Bradford is death and the Bears are good enough to win with just defense, but their offense might kick in here, you watch; it’s coming. Hopefully here.
TEN at JAC (-6.5)
The Computer Says: AJC by 12.6 (6.1 point spread differential)
I’m assuming Leonard Fournette is back and they are facing Blaine Gabbert. This feels like a gimme, which worries me…
PIT (-1.5) at TB
The Computer Says: PIT by 8.0 (6.5 point spread differential)
I LOVE the narrative on this game…Steelers in turmoil, Bucs got things figured out/Ryan Fitzpatrick wears funny, endearing clothes at press conferences. A desperate Steelers team knocks the Bucs back into reality. If they don’t, I may really have to retire from football analysis. I don’t want to live in a world where the Bucs are 3-0.
NE (-6.5) at DET
The Computer Says: NE by 12.9 (5.9 point spread differential)
This was juicier at -6.5, but banking on Darius Slay out makes this a bet of the week candidate for sure. Slay in makes it just a good bet.
MIN -16.5 Best Bet
This analysis is pretty simple for me. The books are going to figure out how high they have to make lines against the Bills, but they aren't there yet. We are going to see 20+ point favorites and that is the amount Minnesota will win this game by. The Bills aren't going to score. Do we think the Vikings can get to 17? I do.
I don't think the Colts are particularly good, but they're good enough to hang around. I also think this line is inflated due to Carson Wentz's return. If Wentz starts out hot out of the gate then more power to him. I think Luck keeps this close.
This is one I don't really have numbers to back up. These Saints Falcons games are always coin flips and I'm getting points on a Saints team that has looked worse than it is. Matt Ryan, as always, is overrated.
The Ravens do not deserve to be favored by nearly a touchdown over anyone (except the Bills). Ravens win. Broncos keep it close.
This seems like such a trap. The Packers only having to win by a field goal against the lowly Redskins who just lost at home to the Colts? Too easy. I won't fall for it. Give me Washington.
Seahawks -1.5 (best bet) - Seattle has played two road games to open the season, against (I think) two of the better pass rushes in the league. Getting back home is going to help them protect Wilson. I think they'll still struggle to move the ball because Dallas also has a pretty good defense, but I don't see Dallas scoring enough to win here. The Cowboys got a 64 yard TD to Tavon Austin to start last week's game, then only 94 pass yards and 238 total yard the rest of the game. They still have issues on offense and they don't have the skill players to fix it. I think Seattle grinds out a win in a low scoring game.
Rams -7 - I realize this isn't a true home game - I don't think it matters. The Rams are really good, and this is their first chance to make a big statement. The Chargers have played two of the worst defenses in the league and I think they're in for a rude awakening against the Rams D.
Colts +6.5 - The Eagles QB situation has distracted from the fact that their secondary has been unable to cover anyone this year and they have very limited skill players on offense. Wentz still may not be 100%, and he's going to run into the same issues Nick Foles did in weeks 1 and 2: nobody to throw to.
Steelers -1.5 - Forget about all the Fitzmagic press conferences and Antonio Brown wanting to be traded, the Steelers are the better team.
Falcons -3 - Watching the Browns on TNF was a pretty big indictment of this Saints team. They may turn it around, and maybe that turnaround starts this week, but for now I'm betting against them.