2018 Blazing Five (Week 10)
My 4-1 Week 8 reversed into my worst week of 2018…1-4 in Week 9. Back to under .500 in this contest. Under .500 picking all games, and Blazing Five, but cruising along with real bet/top picks. The Chiefs paid off again last week.
This week, I wouldn’t bet into 16.5 points despite how strong our Computer sees KC blowing out Arizona. I’d rather play the Packers top pick (under 10.0) – there are several markers that tell me Green Bay is a ‘bet of the year’ kinda candidate. I’ll play GB pretty strong and PHI-IND-NYJ as a basket of small bets trying to win 2 of the 3.
*Note…by popular demand – all of Savage’s picks because he’s killing it this year (noted in his section)
Blazing Five Records After Week 9:
27-15-3 = Savage
26-17-2 = Katz
21-22-2 = RC
*12-5-0 when 3 or more of our group agrees on a B5 pick. This week: NYJ and JAX (but two for IND as well) has 3 nods
**We all agreed (5-0) on PIT going into TNF as well, but that cannot be used on the B5.
Week 10 Blazing Five…
ARI at KC (-16.5)
The Computer says: KC by 30.7 (Point Spread Differential = 14.2)
I hate taking this in the B5…so many points, but KC has scored 37 or more points 6 times this season…if they do here, no way Arizona can get to 21.
The problem is, no matter how good the KC offense is…did you know they’ve only won one game by more than 16 points this season? The Computer just doesn’t think Arizona can stay with them in an offensive battle. Arizona is way too stiff and predictable.
MIA at GB (-9.5)
The Computer says: GB by 19.6 (Point Spread Differential = 10.1)
I love every aspect of this game. This is the one I’m betting for realsies. I get everything here – the better QB, the better defense, the Florida team heading to 30 degrees Green Bay where Rodgers shines.
JAX at IND (-3.0)
The Computer says: IND by 10.9 (Point Spread Differential = 7.9)
Another game I have to love because The Computer says so…the Jags defense is crumbling and down A.J. Bouye. The Jags have no offense. Indy at home – I’ll take it, because you know how The Computer loves this Colts team.
BUF at NYJ (-7.0)
The Computer says: NYJ by 13.3 (Point Spread Differential = 6.3)
I wish this went back to 6.5. I can’t believe the McCown news dropped this line. I wish I knew if the Jets had healthy Robby Anderson or Quincy Enunwa as I make this pick on a Friday. Trumaine Johnson back for NYJ is good.
DAL at PHI (-7.0)
The Computer says: PHI by 11.1 (Point Spread Differential = 4.1)
I love this bet. I love Philly here with a week off, and Dallas off a crushing home defeat on MNF…AND they lost Sean Lee. Philly may unleash Josh Adams. Love this game for the full-scale Dallas implosion and Jason Garrett demise contest.
TB -3...I’m two thumbs up on this game. I know the Bucs don’t have the best defense but the Redskins couldn’t move the ball against the Falcons at home last week. Overall TB doesn’t inspire but they have only played 3 home games (beat the Eagles, lost by 3 to the Steelers and beat the Browns by 3). I think (hope) they get this one comfortably.
JAC +3...I like the surprising Colts but this spot screams Jags. I think the Jaguars start the 2nd half of their season with a win.
SEA +9.5...I took the +10 (-120) in real life...a lot of points to lay in a division game, a lot of points to lay for a team with an average/bad defense, a lot of point to give to DangerRuss.
PHI -7...I’ll kick myself if I lose this one...I don’t like taking a team who just won (before the bye) vs a team who just let everyone down in prime time...I’m overriding that because I think the Eagles are ready to make a run and win this poor division. I think they put on a show in prime time against their biggest rival.
NYG +3...Nick Mullen’s, you leave me no choice but to fade your outlier performance. Especially in real life where this spread is +3.5.
Jaguars +3 - The more I think about this game, the more I like the Jags. This is their last stand. Bortles has played well against Indy, historically, and I don't fully trust the Colts D after giving up 4 TD's to the Raiders in their last game. I'm holding a Colts 25/1 to win the AFC South lottery ticket, so I hope I'm wrong, but just looking at this in a vacuum the Jags seem like a good bet.
49ers -3 - I get that Nick Mullens isn't good and that his incredible game against the Raiders was mostly a fluke. I think what people are missing is that the 49ers haven't gotten good QB play all year. Beathard has been mostly terrible and Jimmy G wasn't great either. My thinking is, I'd love the 49ers at home on MNF vs the Giants if Beathard was starting in this game, so I'm not going to shy away from it just because I'm getting Mullens instead.
Lions +6.5 - I don't really buy that the Lions are quitting on the season. Their defense was OK last week and their struggles on their offense were mostly due to being out of sync in their first game without Golden Tate. This is the first real "must win" game the Bears have had this season, and I don't trust them to handle that pressure after easy wins against the Jets and Bills. Added bonus: this may get up to 7 before kickoff.
Browns +6 - I don't understand this huge line move toward Atlanta. A week ago they were 2.5 point underdogs to the Redskins, who really aren't that much better than Cleveland. Now the Falcons are nearly a TD favorite in a 2nd straight road game. I thought Cleveland looked improved last week against KC. For the first time in 2+ years, they weren't laughably sloppy and mostly avoided beating themselves. They hung around and ultimately got beat by the far superior team, which is no crime. I think they can build on that and go toe-to-toe with Atlanta at home.
Jets -7 - It's hasn't been announced yet, but everything I've read suggests that Josh Allen will be inactive again. It also hasn't been announced that this is Nathan Peterman's last start in the NFL, but I think it might be. McCown is probably an upgrade over Darnold right now, and it doesn't seem like that's factored into the line.
Savage (all ATS)