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2018 Blazing Five (Week 11)
A delightful 1-3-1 last week in the B5, continuing my B5 crash to earth in 2018 after a flirtation with 70%+ on B5 most of last season. I can’t find the right switches and levers in the B5 contest this season. I got time to get back in the race…but the time is running out for 2018.
I hate having a terrible record in this contest, but I can’t hardly process it…because my real bets, the top ‘all-in’ bets I’m making are so hot that I’m having one of my best ‘real’ betting years I’ve ever had. Possibly going to be my best…while I finish last on our FFM contest picking B5s and ‘all games’. It’s a problem because it’s a computer model picking/predicting games and point spreads…and I want that at least running 50%+. There’s still time, but not much.
Blazing Five Records After Week 10:
28-18-4 = Savage
28-19-3 = Katz
22-25-3 = RC
*12-7-0 when 3 or more of our group agrees on a B5 pick…after an 0-2 week last week. ATL has that honor this week.
DAL at ATL (-3.0)
The Computer says: ATL by 13.5 (Point Spread Differential = 10.5)
The Computer has loved this game from the jump – loves the home field advantage, loves the optics of ATL getting punished for losing to a good Browns team (the public thinks is terrible) and DAL the new hero for beating Philly on national TV to erase years of under-performance – love the momentum/public sentiment play here, but mostly this is about the internal metrics – the Falcons are rising and Dallas is not in our internals. Plus, you have Sean Lee out…and Tyron Smith and Zach Martin hanging on by a thread. If ATL gets Deion Jones back, then I love this even more.
TEN at IND (-1.5)
The Computer says: IND by 11.8 (Point Spread Differential = 10.3)
The Titans beat Dallas on MNF…and then beat the Patriots in a shocker last week – so, now, everyone loves the Titans. The new ‘fave’ midland team. At the same time, the Colts have heated up…winners of three in a row and getting players back healthy. At home, we like the Colts here…in addition to the fact that the Titans are overheated by the public and ripe to fall now that everyone’s piling on.
OAK at ARI (-5.0)
The Computer says: ARI by 15.2 (Point Spread Differential = 10.2)
My favorite game of the week. I could argue TEN is as good/better than IND. I could argue DAL is as good/better than ATL. There’s no denying Arizona is better than Oakland in every way.
I pointed it out earlier in the week – Arizona has been better than people realize since Week 3…they just got a bad rap, deserved, for offensive stylings and losing on TV to Denver so horrifically. Aside from that Denver game, which forced changes…Arizona has been good/competitive for weeks under Josh Rosen.
When Oakland started humiliating itself…they cut players and kept coaches.
Arizona is starting to rise in our internals (from dead) – did you know they’re #5 in sacks per game…and #1-2-3 over the last few weeks. The defense is rising. The offense has been troubled and a bad O-Line…but Oakland, literally, has no pass rush at all. *See: Nick Mullens debut.
Arizona gets dinged for being a team that cannot score over 20 points…6-0-14-28-17-10-18-14 in games this season. But they’ve also faced mostly all top 10 NFL defenses (LKAR before injuries, WAS, CHI, MIN, DEN, KC) except their 2 games with SF…and SF’s defense is actually not terrible. Oakland will be the easiest BY FAR defense they will have faced or will face this year.
Arizona gave the Chiefs a game last week, the new O-C’s effects are showing.
I have this in ‘bet of the year’ mode. Pretty much my entire Week 11 allotment is going here. Already has on ARI -4.0, I’d play it at -5.0 too but wish it was under 5.0.
CIN (-5.5?) at BAL
The Computer says: BAL by 10.1 (Point Spread Differential = 15.6)
Things point to a strong win with Lamar Jackson, but there’s too much ‘new’ here for me to be on. D-C fired by Cincy and new QB for BAL. I thought this was BAL favored but it's either 'offline' (waiting for QB announcement) or we see Cincy by -5.5. I'm all over +5.5 with BAL and LJax.
I’d like Cincy to win this game actually. I have real money on the Cincy over 6.5 win total this season…and I’m getting worried.
If RG3 here for some reason…ummm, no thank you.
DEN at LAC (-7.0)
The Computer says: LAC by 0.5 (Point Spread Differential = 6.5)
The Computer just doesn’t buy into LAC and likes Denver’s defense too much getting 7.0 to walk away from taking the points…but also the potential outright upset.
DAL +3.0...I’m buying A.Cooper changing the offense and getting the clearly better defense with points.
BAL -4.0...these surprise QB teams have been unreal this year...even if this goes off at a worse line I think the Ravens can run and get the win here at home.
PHI +8.0...this one hurts to type, as much as the Eagles have looked like cupcakes they are now in their comfort zone as underdogs here...the loss to DAL and Darby being out has people throwing Philly in the trash...I think the Eagles give a good effort, we always have the back door to bail us out and NO has ATL on Thursday so hopefully they don’t feel the need for margin in this game.
IND -2.0...I think Indy is beginning the march to win this division...and I’ll play against the Dion Lewis kiss of death shooting his mouth off after beating the Patriots. And the Titans have never beaten Captain Andrew Luck.
PIT -5.5...I really like this PIT team...they seem focused in a way they haven’t been in past years...
Giants -1.5 - The Giants played hard on Monday night and seem serious about trying to win out, as ridiculous as it may be. Just knowing they're going to show up means a lot in a game a like this, between two more or less eliminated teams. I don't like the Giants offense in general, but they've shown they can score points when Eli isn't pressured, and the Bucs are not a team that pressures the QB very well.
Rams -3.5 - I'll be betting this when the line gets down to 3. I think all the confusion about the venue and ultimately getting to play this game in LA is a big advantage for the Rams. The line opened at 2.5 when it was in Mexico City and only went up 1 point when it was announced that it would be a Rams home game, so something is off. Andy Reid is great at designing an offense, but I still don't trust his game management in big spots like this.
Panthers - 4.5 - Carolina has had 10 days to think about getting trounced by Pittsburgh, and now gets to play a sloppy, lifeless Lions team. There's some serious blowout potential here.
Falcons -3 - There's not a ton I like on the slate this week, so I'm rolling with the computer's favorite bet. Atlanta should be able to turn this into a shootout in the dome and I don't think Dallas will be able to keep up.
Vikings +2.5 - I think the Rams/Chiefs Super Bowl preview is taking away from the fact that this is one of the best games of the year. I believe in Trubisky in the long term, but for 2018 I need to see him beat a real team before I'm ready to take the Bears seriously as a playoff team. Minnesota had an extra week to prepare for this and I think we see them make a statement.
Savage (all picks this week)