2018 Blazing Five (Week 12)
Another frustrating week in the B5 (2-3-0) last week. I just can’t find the juice this season. Picking winning teams of the games at a nice rate…but they are not covering for me (BAL winning not covering this past week). I’m dead last but one great week away from trying to get up with the others…which feels about as likely as the Giants winning out to win the NFC East.
I’ve not given up yet. Still tweaking. Losing the ARI best bet last week was a kick to the groin. Going to try to recover some of that with medium bets on BAL (esp. if it gets to -10.0) and CLE with the outright win. I might put something small on Indy to go with my small bet win on CHI on THU when the line didn’t hardly move when Trubisky went out and my DAL medium bet win – The Computer really likes BAL and CLE and then Dallas (already in the books) as well.
Blazing Five Records After Week 11:
30-23-2 = Skolman
29-22-4 = Savage
29-23-3 = Katz
26-25-2 = Rabbitt
24-28-3 = RC
*13-8-0 when 3 or more of our group agrees on a B5 pick…
OAK at BAL (-10.5)
The Computer says: BAL by 21.9 (Point Spread Differential = 11.4)
The only time Oakland hasn’t lost by 14+ since Week 5 is that abomination versus Arizona last week…because the Cardinals are a train wreck. The Ravens are not…and they will runaway and hide from the Raiders here AT Baltimore in a must-win for the Ravens.
I’m going to try to get some of my Arizona beating from last week money back here.
CLE at CIN (-3.0)
The Computer says: CLE by 6.0 (Point Spread Differential = 9.0)
Love this ‘underdog is the better team and wins’ game. The Bengals are collapsing, and the Browns are soaring. The Browns might deliver a serious beating here.
The Browns have been within 3 points in three of their 4 road games this season.
MIA at IND (-7.5)
The Computer says: IND by 16.3 (Point Spread Differential = 8.8)
The Computer continues to cash in on this for several week…the Colts. We called this Colts uprising many, many weeks ago. Miami is 1-4 on the road with all the losses by 10 or more points. Indy has won three in-a-row at home.
PIT (-3.0) at DEN
The Computer says: PIT by 9.8 (Point Spread Differential = 6.8)
This doesn’t feel right because I have some fear of the Broncos defense, and this being at Denver…but the Broncos have lost three in-a-row at home, all to good teams (KC-LAR-HOU) and the Steelers are a good team too.
NE (-10.0) at NYJ
The Computer says: NE by 17.0 (Point Spread Differential = 7.0)
The Jets are 2-3 at home and recently got trounced by the Bills, by 31 points, at home. This has to be a ‘get right’ game for the Patriots as the Jets collapse more.
Bengals -3 - It's funny how the Bengals became the worst defense of all time in a stretch where they had to play the Saints, Chiefs, Steelers, and Bucs. I think they're still a better team than the Browns and they have a strong home-field advantage. This is also a crucial game if they want to stay in the playoff race, and I think they show up.
Raiders +10.5 - It's a little ridiculous that Lamar Jackson is this big a favorite after struggling to complete forward passes in his first start. If the Raiders care about this game at all, they can come after the Ravens ground game and force LJax to beat them through the air, maybe even pull the shock upset.
Dolphins +8 - Another line that is just a bit too high. Tannehill should give the Dolphins offense a boost, and I still don't fully buy the Colts defense.
Bucs -3 - And you can probably get this at 2.5. The 49ers are low-key tanking by letting Mullens play QB and not really doing anything special with their defensive scheme. The Bucs aren't smart enough to do the same thing, and have their on-field talent is a notch or two above the Niners right now.
Eagles -5 - The Eagles have already dominated the Giants once this year... if they can't show up and do it again after getting embarrassed by the Saints, they might have some serious issues for 2019 and beyond. The Giants "playoff run" is a complete joke and I think they run out of magic in this game.
TB -3...Here’s to hoping the Bucs only turn the ball over 2-3 times in this game...that should be enough to cover.
NYG +5...The Giants believe in themselves and while I expect a bounce back from the Eagles I’ll take the points and bet against the Eagles getting margin on the Giants twice in the same season.
CIN -3...If Greg Williams is in charge of one team...I’ll line up to bet on the other. CIN D is bad but they are at home and with AJ Green back I’ll take my chances.
NE -10...After the bye with Gronk back...I know the Jets get up and play this series close lately but I’ll over ride that with the focused Pats beginning their march to secure a first round bye.
PIT -3...The Broncos just had their surprise upset and I don’t think they are good enough to do it back to back. Pit just had their huge let down...and while I know they are capable of doing THAT back to back...just hoping they don’t.