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2018 Blazing Five (Week 13)

Date:
December 1, 2018

2018 Blazing Five (Week 13)

What a wild Friday…tried to take a half day off because of the light Sunday football schedule to work through all week (3 games played Thursday last week) – but then Spencer Ware burst into my life. I’ll get into all the Ware-Hunt angles later today. You had about a 1-5 minute window ahead of most people to get in on Ware if you have the FFM App, have notifications enabled, and had access to your phone as the new broke. Several cashed in…and it may have changed EVERYTHING. What a day. I’ll get into it later because what’s done is done in about 5 minutes yesterday around 2:30pmET or so.

Onto the less-exciting-than-Ware info:

I’ve got five favorites in my B5 this week, so there is no way I’m going 5-0 in the B5...especially with three of them on the road as favorites, but it’s what The Computer says, so…

In reality, I’m only playing one with real $$$…all-in on Indy, especially if Jalen Ramsey is out (and I think he will be). I’ll put some side money on PIT, and maybe SEA…to try to cover my small Saints losses from TNF.  

I’m, one great week away from being back with ‘the guys’ in the B5…this doesn’t feel like the week, which means it probably will be. I really only care that Indy covers…or I’ll be destitute for 2018 and beyond…

Blazing Five Records After Week 12:

33-25-2 = Skolman

32-26-2= Cowherd

31-25-4 = Savage

31-26-3 = Katz

26-27-2 = Rabbitt

27-30-3 = RC

*13-9-0 when 3 or more of our group agrees on a B5 pick (lost by a hair on PHI over NYG not covering last week as the only 3+ consensus pick). IND-KC-PIT this week.

IND (-4.0) at JAX

The Computer says: IND by 20.4 (Point Spread Differential = 16.4)

I’m playing this as if Jalen Ramsey will be out. It’s still great if he’s in, but if he’s out – this has to be the bet of the year. Indy undervalued all season. The Jags benching of Bortles seen as a positive – but Kessler is not an upgrade.

KC (-14.0) at OAK

The Computer says: KC by 23.7 (Point Spread Differential = 9.7)

I hate laying over 14.0, but then the Ware-Hunt news hit and dropped the line from 15 to 14. I would never bet this game for real…but the Chiefs coming out of the BYE and so able to produce points…KC has to win this by 10+, but will they lay it on by 14+? NFL teams deal with stuff like (Hunt/Ware) this better than the public, so I dive in for a B5 pick.

LAC at PIT (-3.5)

The Computer says: PIT by 17.1 (Point Spread Differential = 13.6)

The Computer has not liked the Chargers ‘internals’ all year. Now LAC minus their offense goes to the Steelers – and you have to love the Steelers coming off disappointment games.

SF at SEA (-10.0)

The Computer says: SEA by 17.4 (Point Spread Differential = 7.4)

The 49ers are not trying to win football games and Seattle has everything to play for. This could be a massacre and the end of the Nick Mullens era.

DEN (-5.0) at CIN

The Computer says: DEN by 12.2 (Point Spread Differential = 7.2)

Must win game for both sides…but it’s Driskel v. the Broncos defense. Denver could sputter on offense (Really? Against Cincy’s defense?) and win this on defense. Cincy is going to get exposed as one of the three worst teams in the NFL with arguably the 2nd worst coaching staff (adding Hue helps!!)

===================

SKOL:



PIT -3.5...The Steelers kind of laid another egg and actually got the loss this time.  Now back home, at night I think they bring the A game which I hope will be enough to get some margin against the Chargers.  Especially with the lightly reported LB injuries for the Bolts.

MIA    -3.5...Josh Allen and friends took care of business and got a big emotional win to show Jalen Ramsey who’s boss.  Now they travel to face MIA who will be wearing their throwback jerseys...and that’s 100% the reason I like the Dolphins.

TB +3.5...my least confident pick and decided to go with a bad team at home vs my other options of bad teams on the road.  CAR D doesn’t strike me as great so maybe the Bucs hang...or maybe Winston gets us in the back door at garbage time.

NE -5...I’m open to the idea that I’m missing something.  I’ve heard that the sharp money is on Min +6 or +5.5...I just don’t get it.  I knew I was going to attend this game 4 months ago...I expected it to be a loss then and nothing (including the Vikings beating a hurting Packers team) hasn’t changed that.  Vikings have key injuries, are bad outdoors and can’t run the ball...what could go wrong?

WAS +6.5...I’m hoping Chris Thompson back helps the bad OL and I’m getting the better defense by almost 3 points per game and almost a TD.  Skins only missed the cover on Thanksgiving because of a missed extra points and that loss doesn’t look so bad after TNF.

======================

Rabbitt

IND

CLE

CHI

KC

DEN

======================

Katz

KC

NE

IND

CLE

SEA

====================

Savage

SEA

OAK

NYG

PIT

MIA

Savage/All Picks

DAL

IND

PIT

CAR

ATL

CLE

MIA

NYG

CIN

DET

GB

OAK

TEN

NE

SEA

PHI

=====================

COLIN

HOU

NYG

IND

ATL

MIN

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>