ffm logo home

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

"The scouting home for serious, high-stakes dynasty/fantasy football profiteers
rss feed

2018 Blazing Five (Week 14)

Date:
December 8, 2018

2018 Blazing Five (Week 14)

Another 2-3 week. Can’t find the juice. Thought I had PIT over LAC in the bag at halftime…didn’t happen. So frustrating this year, but we press on. One good week can me back up to some respectability.

I like KC and DET this week, but I’m not over the moon with them. I’m getting moon-ish on KC…that line stays under 7.0 and love that game. The more I watch Lamar Jackson, the more excited I get about betting KC to murder the Ravens this week…because I think the Ravens defense is way overrated.

Blazing Five Records After Week 12:

36-27-2 = Skolman

35-26-4 = Savage

34-29-2= Cowherd

33-29-3 = Katz

30-31-2 = Rabbitt

29-33-3 = RC

*13-12-0 when 3 or more of our group agrees on a B5 pick.

RC:

BAL at KC (-6.5)

The Computer says: KC by 18.3 (Point Spread Differential = 11.8)

I like betting KC with a line under a TD because KC could beat everyone in the NFL by 7+ home or away. They’re especially tasty facing a mediocre team, like Baltimore. The Ravens have muddled by bad teams for a three-game win streak. Led by Lamar Jackson…who looks pretty bad, besides the fact that he can run well. What a terrible passer. I love KC for the blowout here.

DET (-3.0) at ARI

The Computer says: DET by 13.2 (Point Spread Differential = 10.2)

Detroit has played pretty well the past few weeks. They gave the Rams and the Bears a tough go. They’ve had a killer mid-season schedule. Arizona plays terrible several games and then wins one out of the blue…then back to being terrible. More injuries for the Cards this week – I like the Lions to dominate here.

PIT (-10.5) at OAK

The Computer says: PIT by 17.4 (Point Spread Differential = 6.9)

I just keep looking at the line domination on both sides that favors the Steelers so big, and then I always like the Steelers when they put themselves under pressure coming off losses, bad ones.

ATL at GB (-5.0)

The Computer says: GB by 11.2 (Point Spread Differential = 6.2)

The weather + the coaching change + home field vs. a losing record team…I ride the circumstances here.

Because the Colts injury report is shaky, I’m taking them out of my B5. We have to make these picks on Friday (Cowherd rules), so I don’t want to get stuck with a T.Y. Hilton-less Colts team on the road here. Instead, I’m going to replace #5 with one of my person favorites/curiosities…to heck with The Computer that can’t get to .500. My personal pick just to put skin in the game on my curiosity on Jeff Driskel being semi-real (not a bad QB at all) or a fraud…

CIN at LAC (-14.0)

The Computer says: LAC by 16.0 (Point Spread Differential = 2.0)

I’m wildly interested in seeing if the Jeff Driskel I saw last week was real or I ate some bad sushi (and I don’t even eat sushi) when re-watching that game. 14 points is a lot to lay to a team with their season on the line and with LAC off a lucky road win and looking ahead to KC game the following week.

======================

SAVAGE:

Eagles +3.5 - The Cowboys have had 10 days to hear about how they're now a Super Bowl threat, and that's about as helpful for them as it is true. I think the reality is that they're a pretty good team that just happened to play their best game of the year against a top 5 team in primetime. With the emergence of Josh Adams, the integration of Golden Tate into the offense, and Darren Sproles and Wentz now healthy, the Eagles offense is as good as it has ever been this year. I think they win this game.


Redskins +3.5 - What would this line be with Alex Smith at QB? Redskins -6.5? I don't think the Giants are good enough to lay this many points to anyone on the road.


Cardinals +2.5 - I'd be surprised if this game wasn't decided by 1 score. Detroit is 1-4 on the road this year and I don't think they're good enough or motivated enough to show up and dominate this game.


Rams -3 - The Rams need to win this game, at this point they're used to playing in big moments, and most importantly, they're the better team here. The biggest argument I've heard for the Bears is that Jared Goff isn't familiar with cold weather and I just don't think that really matters.


Bills -3.5 - Most of the group got burned betting the Jets over the Bills a few weeks ago. I think this is our chance to get even. I think the Jets are just waiting until Bowles gets canned, and in the time being we can make money betting against him.

Savage/ALL picks

JAC

BAL

HOU

CAR

GB

NO

BUF

MIA

LAR

WAS

SF

LAC

ARI

PHI

PIT

SEA

====================

COLIN:

MIA

GB

SF

PHI

CHI

=====================

Katz

IND

GB

CLE

MIA

DET

======================

SKOL

GB -5...It’s a popular opinion but I too am on the “Mike McCarthy bounce” train...and also Atlanta is poor on the road.  

TB + 9.5...The Saints finally lost ATS...after that streak I expect them to systematically collect all of that $ back for the bookies...almost a double digit division road favorite is a pretty good spot to do just that.  When TB doesn’t turn the ball over they are pretty good.

BUF -3.5...Feels wrong to lay more than a FG with the Bills...it very well may be.  I just like how the team plays at home and Josh Allen has been running like Lamar Jackson!  Anti-Jets pick here...NYJ covered on he road last week...very poor teams don’t typically do that back to back...

MIA +7.5...Patriots said they are tired of going to Miami and coming home with losses...I’m willing to have them prove it.  Given how bad this Patriots team has been on the road...and how good Miami has been at home (despite almost losing to Buf) I just don’t think this should be north of a TD.

DAL  -3.5...Cowboys come off a great win over NO...and while I don’t expect them to be able to hit everyone who catches the ball helmet to helmet in the temple on every single play with no penalties...they do have the rest advantage and the talent advantage.  Please let this thing get to 3...and I’ll be in for real money.

Tags:

About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>