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2018 Blazing Five (Week 17)

Date:
December 30, 2018

2018 Blazing Five (Week 17)

One last chance to get up over .500 this season. Terrific, best-ever season in Blazing Five last year…just stuck in the mud this year. I feel good about getting three+ wins here this week…

Blazing Five Records After Week 16:

45-33-2 = Skolman

43-33-3 = Katz

40-33-2= Cowherd

40-36-4 = Savage

38-38-3 = RC

37-39-2 = Rabbitt

*14-12-0 when 3 or more of our group agrees on a B5 pick.

**RC's Computer data/line analysis updated from weekend injury reports**

RC:

CAR at NO (-7.0)

The Computer says: NO by 19.1 (Point Spread Differential = 12.1)

Teddy is definitely starting, and I am fine with that. Figured he would play at least a half. Dwayne Washington starting is an X-factor upside for the Saints too. I’d say ‘best bet’/play big IF the Saints weren’t playing without their main starting O-Line intact.

OAK at KC (-13.5)

The Computer says: KC by 22.6 (Point Spread Differential = 9.1)

Nearly every time, this season, I love the Chiefs as a bet…they never cover. I’m due… How do the Chiefs not crush in a must-win with Oakland down several O-Lineman and some defenders?

MIA at BUF (-5.0)

The Computer says: BUF by 11.3 (Point Spread Differential = 6.3)

I like the way the injury reports are looking…Miami could be down Howard and Alonso on defense. Plus, Ryan Tannehill may not play the whole game/if he does, he’ll protect himself because he may be cut/a free agent soon. Bills have a lot of young guys playing hard still.

DET at GB (-8.0)

The Computer says: DET by 0.6 (Point Spread Differential = 8.6)

The Computer smells outright upset potential here as we all get head-faked by Aaron Rodgers playing 2-3 series and leaving for DeShone Kizer. Don’t play if you think Rodgers plays the entire game/most of it. I think there’s a chance he plays one series and done.

IND (-3.0) at TEN

The Computer says: IND by 10.8 (Point Spread Differential = 7.8)

I’m taking a flyer that Mariota will not be ready, or is limited, or just otherwise gets thumped by the Colts.

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SKOL:

GB -8...Even if Rodgers doesn’t play the entire game...Patricia will be coaching the Lions the whole time.  For a week 17 play, that’s enough.  

BAL -5.5...out of principal I have to go against the Browns after seeing Greg Williams horrible pep talk the the team on Twitter.  He claims this is their Super Bowl...well sometimes teams lose by a lot in the actual Super Bowl.  I like betting against players and coaches that talk before the game vs winning then sharing their motivation afterward.  

BUF -5.5...I may be making a mistake here...I have some ideas for summertime research about outlier spreads like this...but it’s week 17 so I’ll throw caution into the wind and bet on the Bills to get a win a month after losing a heartbreaker in Miami...I think Josh Allen and friends bring it.

IND  -3.5...I haven’t been a fan of the Titans all year...I would love if Jax upsets Houston and this is for the division...if not it just feels like the Colts are a playoff team and Ten isn’t.    Not a tough home field so I’ll roll with Reich and Luck and hope to get it by more than a FG.

MIN -4.5...I can’t believe this game has come down to -4.5.  The universe really wants my prediction of the Vikings closing the season 3-0 ATS to come true.  Where do I begin...last week @SF (given that he only turned the ball over twice) was Trubisky’s best road game this year.  The Bears will be scoreboard watching and Nagy said he’ll pull players if the Rams are winning...with that mindset even if the Rams are losing the Bears will be down 14 and won’t even have that option.  I love the Bears this year but they struggled with bottom feeders on the road his year, yet there is an assumption that they can turn it on or off whenever they want AT Minnesota?!  The world has gone mad.

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SAVAGE:

Falcons -2 - The Bucs have already announced plans to bench Jameis Winston for portions of this game, not to see more of Ryan Fitzpatrick but to get a look at Ryan Griffin. While the Bucs are likely to clean house after this game, the Falcons will likely go with the status quo. Given that Atlanta has shown up the last 2 weeks despite being eliminated from the playoffs, I expect another good effort here.

Broncos +6.5 - This line looks 4 or 5 points too high to me. The Chargers most likely can't improve their position with a win, so why are we expecting them to blow out a division rival on the road?

Vikings -4.5 - The Bears would be much better off resting their starters in this game, both to avoid injuries and to ensure they don't have to face Nick Foles in round 1. Unless the 49ers are leading the Rams at half time, I think we see a lot of Chase Daniel in the 2nd half.

Rams -10 - The 49ers have been a tough out the last few weeks, but I think it's important to note that those were all home games. They've been a laughably bad road team all year. The Rams can't afford to screw around here, so I think we'll see them up big at half time.

Packers - 7 - The Packers sent a clear message last week that they're trying to finish strong. The Lions sent a clear message that they're ready for the season to end.


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Rabbitt:

ATL

DEN

CHI

NYG

IND

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>